Bitcoin's 'Rally Ends,' Officially Entering the Later Stage of a Bear Market?

Foresight NewsPublicado em 2026-06-05Última atualização em 2026-06-05

Resumo

Bitcoin prices declined 13% this week, reversing the recent rebound and signaling a likely transition into the later stages of a bear market. Key on-chain metrics deteriorated, with the short-term holder cost basis falling below the Realized Price—a pattern last seen in early 2022, characteristic of bear market maturity. The rally to ~$82k proved to be a bear market bounce, as evidenced by the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio failing to sustain above the bullish threshold of 2. Daily realized losses surged to $1.35B, including significant selling from long-term holders who accumulated near cycle tops, indicating ongoing supply redistribution. Price was rejected almost precisely at the aggregate US spot ETF cost basis of ~$83k, turning that level into resistance and leaving the average ETF investor underwater again. Spot market selling pressure intensified, with the 7-day volume delta turning significantly negative to its weakest level since February. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot demand has not yet stepped in to absorb the resulting supply. Options markets continue pricing in higher future volatility (elevated volatility risk premium) and maintain a skew toward put options, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection, though not yet panic. Overall, market structure remains fragile. Sustained recovery likely requires a reclaim of the ETF cost basis, a shift back to positive spot demand, and a slowdown in realized loss-t...


Author: Glassnode

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News


Bitcoin fell 13% this week, profitability collapsed significantly, realized losses surged, and spot sellers regained control. US spot ETF investors fell back into unrealized losses after encountering resistance near their cost basis, while the options market continues to price high risk.


Summary


  • Bitcoin fell 13% over the past 7 days, retreating to the midpoint between the realized price and the Realized Cap Mean. The cost basis of Short-Term Holders has fallen below the Realized Cap Mean for the first time (since January 2022), confirming late-bear market characteristics.
  • The 7-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, almost identical to the panic wave in February; while the 90-day moving average never breached the threshold of 2, confirming that the rally to $82k was just a bear market rally, not a structural shift.
  • The daily total realized loss surged to $1.35 billion, of which $770 million came from long-term holders capitulating near cycle tops, indicating the supply redistribution process is accelerating but remains incomplete.
  • Bitcoin encountered rejection almost precisely at the aggregate US spot ETF cost basis of $83k, pushing the average ETF investor back into an unrealized loss, reinforcing this level as a key resistance.
  • Spot market selling pressure intensified, with the 7-day spot volume delta turning significantly negative, reaching its weakest level since February, indicating sellers continue to dominate the order book despite the pullback.
  • Implied volatility continues to compress, while the volatility risk premium expanded, with the options market pricing future volatility higher than recent realized market performance.
  • Skew remains in the put premium region, but the recent sell-off did not trigger a significant increase in demand for downside hedging.
  • Market maker positioning is concentrated near the current spot price, with Bitcoin sitting in a maximum negative gamma zone, and order flow continues to favor protective demand.


Macro Insights


US JOLTs job openings rose to 7.62 million in April, the highest in nearly two years, 750k above market expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4.45%, and the market is pricing over a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end, with no rate cuts expected for the full year. The Dollar Index holds above 99. Financial conditions are marginally tightening, not easing.


Bitcoin has absorbed this shift more sharply than any other risk asset, falling 13% over the past week to the $67,000 range. US spot ETFs saw outflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling $4.21 billion, the largest institutional redemption wave of 2026. Institutions are de-risking ahead of price declines, not reacting after the fact. Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data is a key watchpoint. Strong data will extend the current distribution pressure; weak data may provide the first reset condition.


On-Chain Insights


Back in Bear Territory


The macro headwinds directly translated into a deterioration in on-chain structure. The 13% drop last week pulled the price back down from the Realized Cap Mean of $77.8k, which tracks the cost basis of actively traded supply and historically acts as a bull/bear market divider. The current price of $67k sits in the middle of this range, failing to hold above the Realized Cap Mean, reconfirming that a bearish continuation remains the dominant framework.


Notably, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has now fallen to $76.4k and dipped below the Realized Cap Mean, a configuration last seen in January 2022. This setup indicates new buyers are accumulating below the market's key mean valuation, a classic feature of late bear markets: the time dimension of the drawdown begins to pressure investor conviction, historically making structural failures or large-scale capitulation more likely at this stage.



Profitability Bias Collapses in Decline


Against this structural deterioration, the short-term flow environment shifted sharply with the recent price drop. The 7-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has contracted to 0.29, indicating loss realization is now heavily dominating on-chain spending behavior. This is almost identical to the panic wave in early February. On May 7th, this 7-day MA spiked to 3.16 as investors realized profits during the $82k rally, but the 90-day MA never breached the threshold of 2 associated with truly bullish flows. This divergence between short-term and medium-term readings is a clear signal of the rally's lack of structural conviction, fitting a local top pattern within a bear market, not a credible structural shift. The subsequent fall to 0.29 further confirms this.



New Buyers Under Pressure


Resistance from the bear market top range has directly exposed the most recently accumulated supply to loss. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution heatmap shows the density of supply held by recent buyers across price clusters, revealing where the STH cost basis is concentrated, and thus where behavioral pressure is most likely.


As price retraces to the ~$67k region, it is approaching the lower bounds of supply clusters accumulated since February. At this zone, a significant volume of Short-Term Holders are seeing their unrealized gains compressed to breakeven or turning negative. Those who accumulated near the $78k-$82k local top face the most immediate pressure. Their decision to hold or capitulate will determine whether the current price can absorb selling pressure or give way to deeper declines.



Accelerating Loss Realization Across Cohorts


As recent buyers are pressed back to the lower bounds of their three-month range, the pressure for loss realization has expanded beyond the latest accumulated supply to a broader base. The current retracement to $67k has pushed the daily total realized loss to $1.35 billion, a significant acceleration from baseline levels during the prior consolidation.


Of this, $770 million daily is being realized by Long-Term Holders who acquired before January 2026, reflecting continued capitulation by cycle-top buyers as the bear market extends in time. The remainder comes from more recent buyers who accumulated within the $67k-$82k range in 2026 and are now being forced to realize losses as price falls below their cost basis.


This pattern of Long-Term Holder capitulation and supply transfer to new buyers at lower prices is a recurring and necessary feature of cycle bottoming processes as bear markets mature. However, the current pace of loss realization suggests this process remains incomplete.



Off-Chain Insights


Breaking Below ETF Cost Basis


Bitcoin's latest rally stalled almost precisely near the aggregated US spot ETF cost basis of $83k, turning a level that previously acted as support into clear resistance. This suggests a significant number of previously underwater ETF investors used the rally to lighten positions or exit at breakeven.


This rejection is particularly notable given that ETF flows have been a dominant source of demand this cycle. When price struggles to reclaim the average holder's cost basis, it often indicates that supply from trapped investors is overwhelming new demand, creating overhead resistance.


Looking ahead, the aggregated ETF cost basis remains a key watch level. A decisive reclaim would return the average ETF investor to profitability and potentially improve sentiment within that cohort. Until then, failure to hold above it suggests ETF holdings remain a headwind, with investors using strength to de-risk rather than accumulate.



Spot Buying Disappears


Spot market flow deteriorated sharply over the past two weeks, with the 7-day spot volume delta turning negative and reaching its weakest level since the February sell-off. This indicates aggressive sellers are again dominating the spot order book, further reinforcing the weakness of recent price action.


What's distinctive about the current move is that it follows a period of sustained spot-led accumulation in April and early May. During that ascent, buyers consistently lifted offers, pushing spot volume delta into positive territory and helping Bitcoin recover from the mid-$60ks to the $80ks. That demand impulse has now faded, with sellers regaining control as price failed to break higher.


A persistently negative spot volume delta is typically associated with either a capitulation event or the early stages of a broader trend reversal. For now, it suggests the market remains in a distribution phase, with spot participants selling into rallies rather than accumulating. A notable improvement in spot demand remains a key signal needed to underpin a sustainable recovery.



Futures Liquidations


The latest market downturn triggered one of the largest liquidation events of the cycle, with over $400 million in leveraged long positions forcibly closed as Bitcoin broke below $70k. While painful for late entrants, such events often purge excess leverage from the system and reset market positioning.


Notably, the scale of this liquidation remains smaller than during the corrections in October 2025 and February 2026, suggesting leverage was not excessively stretched entering this decline. Historically, large long liquidations often coincide with local exhaustion points, as forced selling cascades through derivatives markets and flushes out weak hands.


The key question ahead is whether spot demand can step in to absorb the supply. If liquidation-driven selling pressure begins to subside while spot buyers return, the market may be left with a cleaner positioning backdrop and lower overhang of leverage, setting the stage for a more sustainable recovery.



Implied Volatility Continues its Descent


Looking at implied volatility, the dominant trend remains compression across the term structure despite the spot breakdown. The 1-month tenor fell from ~38% to 34%, with the 3-month and 6-month tenors also compressing by roughly 3 volatility points over the past two weeks.


This move reflects a market unwilling to pay up for options even after Bitcoin broke below recent range lows. While front-end volatility saw brief reactive spikes during sharp spot moves, these were quickly sold, maintaining the broader downtrend.


The term structure remains in contango, with forward volatility still trading at a premium to the front end. This indicates traders continue to view recent price weakness as a local event, not a catalyst for a broader volatility repricing.



Volatility sellers remain in control, with no acceleration in demand for protection despite price weakness.


Volatility Risk Premium Nears Three-Month Highs


As implied volatility declines, its relationship with realized volatility tells a different story. Despite Bitcoin experiencing a volatile period, the options market continues to price future volatility significantly higher than what the spot market has recently delivered.


The 1-month implied volatility has rebounded to ~42%, while realized volatility remains near 32%. The result is an expanded volatility risk premium, now near its highest levels of the past three months.


This dynamic was particularly evident during the recent sell-off. While realized volatility picked up as spot broke key supports, implied volatility rose faster, reflecting fresh demand for options and protection.


The options market continues to assign a higher probability to future volatility than recent price action alone would imply, keeping volatility premiums elevated significantly.



Put Premiums Remain Elevated


As the volatility risk premium expands, skew shows where traders continue to concentrate their option demand. Despite the spot breakdown, put options remain persistently more expensive than calls across the term curve.


Conclusion


Bitcoin's latest decline further reinforces the view of a still fragile market, with weakness evident across profitability, investor behavior, ETF holdings, and spot market demand. Rejection near the aggregate ETF cost basis of ~$83k indicates many investors remain trapped above current prices, creating overhead supply that continues to cap Bitcoin's rallies.


Meanwhile, realized losses are accelerating, long-term holders are beginning to sell in size, and spot order flow has decidedly shifted to sellers. While recent liquidation events help clear leverage from the system, there is little evidence yet of a durable demand response capable of absorbing the resulting supply.


A similar story holds in the options market. Traders continue to pay for downside protection and future volatility, but there is no sign of the panic that often accompanies large declines. Until spot demand strengthens, ETF investors return to profitability, and selling pressure begins to abate, the market remains at risk of further declines and continued consolidation within a broader bear market structure.

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to the article, what key on-chain metric suggests that Bitcoin is exhibiting characteristics of the late bear market phase?

AThe article states that the cost basis for Short-Term Holders (STH) has fallen below the Realized Price (the average cost basis of the active circulating supply). This configuration, last seen in January 2022, indicates new buyers are accumulating below a key market valuation mean, which is a typical characteristic of the late bear market phase.

QWhat does the rejection of Bitcoin's price near the aggregate cost basis of US spot ETFs ($83k) indicate about investor behavior?

AThe rejection near the $83k aggregate ETF cost basis indicates that many ETF investors who were previously at a loss used the price rebound to sell or exit at breakeven. This turned a previous support level into a clear resistance, suggesting that supply from trapped investors is outweighing new demand at that level.

QHow has the Spot Volume Delta metric changed recently, and what does this signify for the market?

AThe 7-day Spot Volume Delta has turned significantly negative, reaching its weakest level since February. This signifies that aggressive sellers are dominating the spot order book again, with selling pressure exceeding buying pressure. It indicates the market is still in a distribution phase, where participants are selling into rallies rather than accumulating.

QWhat is the current state of the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), and what does it imply about market expectations?

AThe Volatility Risk Premium has expanded to near its highest level in three months. This means the implied volatility priced into options is significantly higher than the recent realized volatility. It implies that the options market is consistently assigning a higher probability to future volatility than what recent price action alone would suggest, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.

QWhat does the article conclude is necessary for a sustainable market recovery?

AThe article concludes that for a sustainable recovery, there needs to be: 1) A strengthening of spot demand to absorb supply, 2) ETF investors regaining profitability (price decisively reclaiming the aggregate cost basis), and 3) A noticeable easing of selling pressure. Until these conditions are met, the market risks further downside or continued consolidation within the broader bear market structure.

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O que é BITCOIN

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Bem-vindo à HTX.com!Tornámos a compra de Bitcoin (BTC) simples e conveniente.Segue o nosso guia passo a passo para iniciar a tua jornada no mundo das criptos.Passo 1: cria a tua conta HTXUtiliza o teu e-mail ou número de telefone para te inscreveres numa conta gratuita na HTX.Desfruta de um processo de inscrição sem complicações e desbloqueia todas as funcionalidades.Obter a minha contaPasso 2: vai para Comprar Cripto e escolhe o teu método de pagamentoCartão de crédito/débito: usa o teu visa ou mastercard para comprar Bitcoin (BTC) instantaneamente.Saldo: usa os fundos da tua conta HTX para transacionar sem problemas.Terceiros: adicionamos métodos de pagamento populares, como Google Pay e Apple Pay, para aumentar a conveniência.P2P: transaciona diretamente com outros utilizadores na HTX.Mercado de balcão (OTC): oferecemos serviços personalizados e taxas de câmbio competitivas para os traders.Passo 3: armazena teu Bitcoin (BTC)Depois de comprar o teu Bitcoin (BTC), armazena-o na tua conta HTX.Alternativamente, podes enviá-lo para outro lugar através de transferência blockchain ou usá-lo para transacionar outras criptomoedas.Passo 4: transaciona Bitcoin (BTC)Transaciona facilmente Bitcoin (BTC) no mercado à vista da HTX.Acede simplesmente à tua conta, seleciona o teu par de trading, executa as tuas transações e monitoriza em tempo real.Oferecemos uma experiência de fácil utilização tanto para principiantes como para traders experientes.

4.1k Visualizações TotaisPublicado em {updateTime}Atualizado em 2026.06.02

Como comprar BTC

O que é $BITCOIN

OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN): Uma Análise Abrangente Introdução ao OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) é um projeto baseado em blockchain que opera na rede Solana, com o objetivo de combinar as características dos metais preciosos tradicionais com a inovação das tecnologias descentralizadas. Embora partilhe um nome com o Bitcoin, frequentemente referido como “ouro digital” devido à sua percepção como uma reserva de valor, o OURO DIGITAL é um token separado projetado para criar um ecossistema único dentro da paisagem Web3. O seu objetivo é posicionar-se como um ativo digital alternativo viável, embora os detalhes sobre as suas aplicações e funcionalidades ainda estejam em desenvolvimento. O que é o OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) é um token de criptomoeda explicitamente projetado para uso na blockchain Solana. Em contraste com o Bitcoin, que fornece um papel amplamente reconhecido como armazenamento de valor, este token parece focar em aplicações e características mais amplas. Aspectos notáveis incluem: Infraestrutura Blockchain: O token é construído na blockchain Solana, conhecida pela sua capacidade de lidar com transações de alta velocidade e baixo custo. Dinâmicas de Oferta: O OURO DIGITAL tem um fornecimento máximo limitado a 100 quatrilhões de tokens (100P $BITCOIN), embora os detalhes sobre o seu fornecimento circulante ainda não tenham sido divulgados. Utilidade: Embora as funcionalidades precisas não estejam explicitamente delineadas, existem indicações de que o token poderia ser utilizado para várias aplicações, potencialmente envolvendo aplicações descentralizadas (dApps) ou estratégias de tokenização de ativos. Quem é o Criador do OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? Neste momento, a identidade dos criadores e da equipa de desenvolvimento por trás do OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) permanece desconhecida. Esta situação é típica entre muitos projetos inovadores no espaço da blockchain, particularmente aqueles alinhados com finanças descentralizadas e fenómenos de moedas meme. Embora tal anonimato possa fomentar uma cultura orientada pela comunidade, intensifica as preocupações sobre governança e responsabilidade. Quem são os Investidores do OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? As informações disponíveis indicam que o OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) não tem apoiantes institucionais conhecidos ou investimentos proeminentes de capital de risco. O projeto parece operar num modelo peer-to-peer focado no apoio e adoção da comunidade, em vez de rotas de financiamento tradicionais. A sua atividade e liquidez estão principalmente situadas em exchanges descentralizadas (DEXs), como a PumpSwap, em vez de plataformas de negociação centralizadas estabelecidas, destacando ainda mais a sua abordagem de base. Como Funciona o OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) A mecânica operacional do OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) pode ser elaborada com base no seu design de blockchain e nas características da rede: Mecanismo de Consenso: Ao aproveitar o exclusivo proof-of-history (PoH) da Solana combinado com um modelo de proof-of-stake (PoS), o projeto assegura uma validação eficiente das transações, contribuindo para o alto desempenho da rede. Tokenomics: Embora mecanismos deflacionários específicos não tenham sido extensivamente detalhados, o vasto fornecimento máximo de tokens implica que pode atender a microtransações ou casos de uso de nicho que ainda estão por definir. Interoperabilidade: Existe o potencial para integração com o ecossistema mais amplo da Solana, incluindo várias plataformas de finanças descentralizadas (DeFi). No entanto, os detalhes sobre integrações específicas permanecem não especificados. Cronologia de Eventos Chave Aqui está uma cronologia que destaca marcos significativos relacionados ao OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN): 2023: O lançamento inicial do token ocorre na blockchain Solana, marcado pelo seu endereço de contrato. 2024: O OURO DIGITAL ganha visibilidade ao tornar-se disponível para negociação em exchanges descentralizadas como a PumpSwap, permitindo que os utilizadores o negociem contra SOL. 2025: O projeto testemunha atividade de negociação esporádica e potencial interesse em envolvimentos liderados pela comunidade, embora não tenham sido documentadas parcerias ou avanços técnicos notáveis até ao momento. Análise Crítica Forças Escalabilidade: A infraestrutura subjacente da Solana suporta altos volumes de transações, o que pode aumentar a utilidade do $BITCOIN em vários cenários de transação. Acessibilidade: O potencial preço de negociação baixo por token pode atrair investidores de retalho, facilitando uma participação mais ampla devido a oportunidades de propriedade fracionada. Riscos Falta de Transparência: A ausência de apoiantes, desenvolvedores ou um processo de auditoria publicamente conhecidos pode gerar ceticismo em relação à sustentabilidade e confiabilidade do projeto. Volatilidade do Mercado: A atividade de negociação depende fortemente do comportamento especulativo, o que pode resultar em volatilidade significativa dos preços e incerteza para os investidores. Conclusão O OURO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) surge como um projeto intrigante, mas ambíguo, dentro do ecossistema em rápida evolução da Solana. Embora tente aproveitar a narrativa do “ouro digital”, a sua divergência do papel estabelecido do Bitcoin como reserva de valor sublinha a necessidade de uma diferenciação mais clara da sua utilidade pretendida e estrutura de governança. A aceitação e adoção futuras dependerão provavelmente da abordagem da atual opacidade e da definição mais explícita das suas estratégias operacionais e económicas. Nota: Este relatório abrange informações sintetizadas disponíveis até outubro de 2023, e desenvolvimentos podem ter ocorrido além do período de pesquisa.

92 Visualizações TotaisPublicado em {updateTime}Atualizado em 2025.05.13

O que é $BITCOIN

Discussões

Bem-vindo à Comunidade HTX. Aqui, pode manter-se informado sobre os mais recentes desenvolvimentos da plataforma e obter acesso a análises profissionais de mercado. As opiniões dos utilizadores sobre o preço de BTC (BTC) são apresentadas abaixo.

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