Shortly before the release of U.S. employment data on August 7th, Bitcoin soared above $65,000, setting a daily high of $65,311.
According to CoinGecko, Ethereum traded at $1903, while other major cryptocurrencies were in the green within one to two percentage points of their starting levels.
Then, the employment data was published, and it turned out to be much weaker than expected. The number of non-farm jobs in the U.S. fell by 23,000 in July, missing the Dow Jones economist forecast of an increase to 83,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, instead of remaining at the forecasted 4.2%. Stock futures reacted positively to this data. Traders interpreted the weak employment figures as another argument for the Federal Reserve not to change interest rates at its September meeting.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.2%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.5%, and Dow futures climbed by 160 points or 0.3%. According to CME FedWatch data, most traders dealing in federal funds futures expect the Fed to keep the base rate at 3.50%–3.75% next month.
The bounce occurred after oil price increases on Thursday, August 6th, which put pressure on the stock market, causing the Dow Jones index to fall by more than 460 points or 0.9%. The S&P 500 index lost 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 0.1%.
On Friday, oil moved in the opposite direction. WTI crude oil futures for September delivery fell by 0.6% to $76.85 per barrel, and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.7% to $81.90.
Precious metals showed much stronger growth. Gold rose by 1% to $4300 per ounce, and silver surpassed the $64 per ounce mark after an increase of over 4% in the last 24 hours.
HCN Stablecoin Index: 69 — Cautious.
The market is shifting to a cautious mode: stablecoins are concentrating a significant portion of liquidity, and their role in the trading infrastructure has reached an extremely high level. However, neutral supply dynamics do not yet confirm a large-scale capital inflow or outflow. The current structure indicates more of an anticipation of the market's next move than a full-blown Risk-Off.
This is a warning signal of decreasing risk appetite. If the index continues to move above 75, this will be a stronger confirmation of the market's transition to Risk-Off. If it falls below 60, the current caution will begin to weaken.
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