Ark Invest's 'Big Ideas 2026' Crypto Section: BTC Market Cap to Reach $16 Trillion by 2030

Original link: Big Ideas 2026

Compiled by: CryptoLeo(@LeoAndCrypto)

Recently, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest released its annual 'Big Ideas 2026' report. This report focuses on AI, robotics, blockchain, energy storage, and multi-omics (a research method and strategy in biology), which ARK refers to as the five major technology platforms. These five platforms will be interdependent and catalytic, promoting accelerated technological convergence to create newer platform functionalities. It states that the world is entering an unprecedented cycle of technology investment, where innovation in each technology platform will have a more profound macroeconomic impact, and each platform will provide a structural boost to global growth.

The report also briefly mentions quantum computing, such as the often-worried-about issue of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin. ARK states that the performance improvement of quantum computing has been relatively flat, despite significant investment in its R&D. Google has only doubled the number of qubits in over four years. Even if its performance and cost improve significantly, at the pace of Moore's Law, quantum computing cannot be used for encryption and decryption before the 2040s.

Odaily has compiled and organized the crypto-related content from 'Big Ideas 2026'. Enjoy~

1. Blockchain and Bitcoin

Once blockchain achieves mass adoption, all funds and contracts will migrate on-chain. These blockchains will be able to verify digital scarcity and proof of ownership. The financial ecosystem is likely to be reconfigured to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies (including connections to traditional finance and stablecoins) and smart contracts. These technologies should increase transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory controls, and lower contract execution costs.

As more assets become money-like and businesses and consumers adapt to new financial infrastructure, digital wallets will become increasingly necessary. As these wallets evolve into AI-powered purchasing agents, they may develop into distribution platforms for digital services.

The chart above shows the Bitcoin price trend throughout 2025 and the timeline of major Bitcoin-related events. From Trump's inauguration speech in early 2025 to the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve to Vanguard's engagement with Bitcoin ETFs at the end of the year.

Bitcoin is maturing as an emerging asset class. US Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies hold 12% of Bitcoin's total supply. In 2025, Bitcoin ETF balances grew by 19.7%, from approximately 1.12 million to about 1.29 million, while Bitcoin held by public companies grew by 73%, from about 598,000 to about 1.09 million. The share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held by Bitcoin ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.

Bitcoin's risk-adjusted annual return (Sharpe Ratio) has surpassed the average of the cryptocurrency market over time. For most of 2025, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns exceeded those of most other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Its average annual Sharpe Ratio has also been higher than that of ETH, SOL, and the average of the other 9 tokens in the CoinDesk Top 10 since the recent cycle low (November 2022), early 2024, and early 2025.

In 2025, Bitcoin's price drawdown from its all-time high narrowed, and its volatility decreased as its role as a safe-haven asset increased. Looking at 5-year, 3-year, 1-year, and 3-month timeframes, Bitcoin's drawdowns in 2025 were not significant relative to historical drawdown magnitudes.

As gold prices grew steadily and stablecoin adoption accelerated, two data points changed in ARK's Bitcoin valuation model for 2030: the total addressable market (TAM) for digital gold grew by 37% after gold's market cap rose 64.5% in 2025; and due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins in developing countries, the penetration rate for Bitcoin's characteristic as an emerging market safe haven decreased by 80%.

Reference reading: 'Ark Invest Publishes Bitcoin Valuation Model: BTC to Start at $500,000 per Coin by 2030'

By 2030, the market value of digital assets could reach $28 trillion. The smart contract and pure digital currency market could grow to $28 trillion by 2030 at an annual growth rate of about 61%. ARK believes Bitcoin could capture 70% of this market, with the remainder led by ETH, Solana, and others.

Data shows Ethereum remains the preferred blockchain for on-chain players, with assets on Ethereum now exceeding $400 billion. On seven of the eight major blockchains, stablecoins and the top 50 tokens account for about 90% of the market value. On blockchains other than Solana, Meme coin market share is about 3% or lower. On Solana, Meme coin market share is about 21%.

According to ARK's forecast, Bitcoin is likely to dominate the cryptocurrency market capitalization, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 63% over the next five years, increasing from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030.

By 2030, the market capitalization of smart contracts could grow at an annual rate of 54% to approximately $6 trillion, generating about $192 billion in annual revenue at an average fee rate of 0.75%.

Two to three L1 smart contract platforms should capture the majority of the market share, and the market capitalization they derive from monetary premiums (store of value and reserve asset characteristics) will exceed discounted cash flow.

2. Tokenized Assets

Thanks to the 'GENIUS Act', financial institutions are reassessing their stablecoin and tokenization strategies. As regulations related to the 'GENIUS Act' became clearer, stablecoin activity surged to record highs. Numerous companies and institutions launched their own stablecoins, while BlackRock disclosed its internal tokenization platform plans. Large enterprises and fintech companies like Tether, Circle, and Stripe have also launched or supported Layer 1 blockchains optimized for stablecoins.

In December 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion, far exceeding most traditional payment systems:

In December 2025, the 30-day moving average of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume was $3.5 trillion, 2.3 times the combined total of Visa, PayPal, and remittances.

Circle's stablecoin USDC dominated the adjusted transaction volume with a share of about 60%, followed by Tether's USDT at about 35%.

In 2025, the supply of stablecoins grew by about 50%, from $210 billion to $307 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for 61% and 25% respectively.

Sky Protocol was a stablecoin issuer with a market cap exceeding $10 billion by the end of 2025. Also noteworthy, PayPal's PYUSD market cap grew more than sixfold to $3.4 billion.

Led by US Treasuries and commodities, the tokenized asset market size tripled in 2025, reaching $19 billion

In 2025, the market value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) grew by 208% to $18.9 billion.

BlackRock's $1.7 billion BUIDL money market fund was one of the largest products, accounting for 20% of the $9 billion in US Treasuries;

Tether's (XAUT) and Paxos's (PAXG) tokenized gold products led the growth in tokenized commodities, increasing to $1.8 billion and $1.6 billion respectively, together accounting for 83%;

Public stock tokenization amounted to nearly $750 million;

RWA could become one of the fastest-growing categories. Although decentralized assets constitute the majority of global value, off-chain assets remain the largest growth opportunity for on-chain adoption.

By 2030, the global tokenized asset market size could exceed $11 trillion.

By 2030, tokenized assets could grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion, accounting for about 1.38% of global financial assets.

Although sovereign debt is currently the main area for tokenization, bank deposits and global public stocks are likely to represent a larger share on-chain in the next 5 years. As regulatory clarity and institutional-grade infrastructure develop, tokenization is likely to see widespread adoption.

Traditional companies are expanding their on-chain presence by launching their own infrastructure. For instance: Circle (Arc), Coinbase (Base, cbBTC), Kraken (Ink), OKX (X Layer), Robinhood (Robinhood Chain), and Stripe (Tempo) are all launching L1/L2 networks named after their brands to support their own products, such as Bitcoin-collateralized loans, tokenized stocks and ETFs, and stablecoin-based payment channels.

3. DeFi Applications

Digital asset capture has shifted from networks to applications. Networks are becoming utility infrastructure, no longer the economic layer, but pushing user economics and profits to the application layer. Led by Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and Pancakeswap, total DeFi application revenue hit a record high of approximately $3.8 billion in 2025.

In 2025, one-fifth of the application revenue was generated in January, the highest monthly revenue ever. Today, 70 applications and protocols have monthly recurring revenue (MRR) exceeding $1 million each.

The asset size of DeFi and stablecoin issuers is catching up to many fintech companies. The difference in intra-platform assets between traditional fintech platforms and native crypto platforms is narrowing, indicating a gradual convergence of traditional and on-chain infrastructure. DeFi protocols like liquid staking or lending platforms are attracting institutional capital and scaling rapidly.

Each of the top 50 DeFi platforms has a TVL exceeding $1 billion, while each of the top 12 platforms has a TVL exceeding $5 billion. Globally, the most revenue-efficient companies include Hyperliquid, Tether, and pump.fun.

In 2025, Hyperliquid achieved annual revenue exceeding $800 million with no more than 15 employees. Perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and Meme coins, as on-chain verticals, have clear product-market fit and can attract users and capital at scale.

On-chain businesses and protocols are redefining productivity, with double-digit employee numbers driving world-class revenue and profitability.

In the perpetual contracts market, DeFi derivatives, led by Hyperliquid, are taking share from Binance.

Layer 1 is evolving from revenue-generating networks into monetary assets. Applying a high-growth revenue multiple of 50x to its network revenue indicates that over 90% of Ethereum's market capitalization is attributable to its role as a monetary asset.

Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, suggesting 90% of its valuation depends on its network utility.

Only a few crypto assets can retain monetary properties as liquid stores of value.

Additionally, the ARK report mentioned AI. Since the ChatGPT boom, the growth rate of data center systems has increased from 5% annually to 29%. As AI foundation models become a new layer of the internet architecture, consumer interaction with applications is decreasing, shifting more towards interaction through AI Agents. This structural shift is intensifying the consumer digital experience. Consumer adoption of AI is far exceeding the speed at which they embraced the internet. By 2030, AI Agents are expected to facilitate over $8 trillion in online consumption. The share of AI Agents in digital transactions is expected to increase steadily—from 2% of online spending in 2025 to about 25% by 2030.

By 2030, AI Agents are expected to create approximately $900 billion in commercial and advertising revenue. As AI agents drive the transformation of the digital economy, AI-mediated consumer revenue is expected to grow at an annual rate of about 105% over the next five years, from the current ~$20 billion to about $900 billion by 2030. Lead generation and advertising will drive most of the growth, far exceeding the contribution from consumer subscription revenue.

The infrastructure closest to AI Agent consumption in the crypto industry currently is the x402 protocol, which also promotes the development of Crypto+AI.