Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin's Resistance Band About to Break Through or Be Rejected for the Sixth Time?

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2026-07-27Última atualização em 2026-07-27

Resumo

Bitcoin is trading around $65,457, consolidating between a key bear market resistance line (rejecting price since February) and its cluster of EMAs around $64,475-$65,045. Key resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578, with further resistance at the 100-day EMA ($67,717). Support lies at the EMAs and the lower Bollinger Band at $62,243. A potential bullish catalyst is Iran's signal for a ceasefire, which could reduce geopolitical risk. Analyst Benjamin Cowen draws parallels to 2018, warning of a potential rejection and August-September decline if the resistance isn't broken. Anthony Scaramucci remains long-term bullish, citing Bitcoin's advantages over gold. The outlook hinges on whether BTC can close above the $66,578 resistance or faces another rejection.

Bitcoin is trading at $65,457 on July 27, up 0.18%, following Iran signaling a willingness to halt hostilities, simultaneously putting pressure on the bearish market resistance band that has capped all upside attempts since February.

$BTC is squeezed between the bear market resistance band and its EMA cluster.

$BTC price chart 1D (Source: TradingView)

The daily chart shows $BTC consolidating between the 20-day EMA at $64,475 and the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578, with a descending red trendline from the May peak passing through the same zone. This trendline is Benjamin Cowen's bear market resistance band, and it has rejected the price on every approach since February. The 50-day EMA at $65,045 aligns almost exactly with the current price, making the EMA cluster an immediate support test.

Related: Cardano Price Forecast: Can ADA Break $0.20 Amid Ark Invest vs. Hoskinson Clash Over Its Significance?

The Bollinger Middle Line at $64,410 and the 20-day EMA at $64,475 form a narrow support zone just below. A close above the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578 and the descending trendline would be the first real signal of a breakout recovery. Above that, the next target is the 100-day EMA at $67,717, with the 200-day EMA at $73,421 as the long-term ceiling. The lower Bollinger Band at $62,243 defines the lower floor if support gives way.

What are the key support and resistance levels for $BTC today?

  • Support at $65,045 on the 50-day EMA and $64,475 on the 20-day EMA
  • Resistance at $66,578 on the upper Bollinger Band and the descending bear market resistance band
  • Extended resistance at $67,717 on the 100-day EMA
  • Key low at $62,243 on the lower Bollinger Band

Iran's ceasefire signal could be the needed macro-market unlock

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe reported on July 26 that Iran has indicated it will halt attacks provided the US suspends military operations.

Van de Poppe characterized this as a great sign for Bitcoin and crypto markets and called for a green week. Geopolitical tensions since June have been a persistent headwind for risk assets, with spikes in oil prices and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly unsettling sentiment at key technical levels.

Benjamin Cowen sees a replay of 2018 with August declines

Cowen's latest video shows Bitcoin's 2026 structure relative to 2018: a February low, a high low in late March, the June low range in early July, and the current rally back to the bear market resistance band.

In 2018, this rally lasted until late July before giving back all gains in August and September. His base case is the same outcome: Q4 forms the market cycle bottom where on-chain indicators historically reset. His turnaround condition remains unchanged: if $BTC doesn't break out by year-end, he calls the bull market back on.

Anthony Scaramucci says $10 trillion is Bitcoin's next stop

Speaking on The Wolf of All Streets podcast, Scaramucci noted that Bitcoin's $1.2 trillion market cap is roughly the size of Micron Technology, arguing that a $10 trillion valuation still wouldn't be proportionate to global capital markets. He used gold's $28 trillion market cap as a benchmark, calling Bitcoin more scarce, more portable, and easier to move than the metal it increasingly competes with. He characterized the current environment as apathy, not a structural breakdown, drawing a parallel to Uber, where technologies that truly serve people eventually win, regardless of who tries to block them.

Related: Espresso Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Builds as ESP Aims for $0.1208 Following 42% Weekly Rally

Regarding the clarity bill, Scaramucci flatly stated he does not see it passing, not out of pessimism but due to how Washington actually works. He argued Democrats have every incentive to block the bill simply to deny Trump a victory, irrespective of the bill's merits. He cited former SEC Chairman Paul Atkins as a steady hand but warned that without legislation, crypto regulation remains a pendulum swinging at the whim of those in power.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Upside and downside targets

  • Upside case: Iran's ceasefire signal holds, $BTC closes above the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578 and the bear market resistance zone, the FOMC confirms a hold on rates on July 29, and van de Poppe's green week pushes towards the 100-day EMA at $67,717 amid a declining geopolitical risk premium.
  • Downside case: Cowen's 2018 analog plays out on the chart, $BTC is rejected at the bear market resistance zone, the 50-day EMA at $65,045 fails to hold support, and price drops towards the Bollinger Middle Line at $64,410 and the 20-day EMA at $64,475 as August seasonal weakness sets in.
end-content

Criptomoedas em alta

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE
jst
JUSTJST

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat are the key support and resistance levels for Bitcoin mentioned in the article, based on the daily chart?

AKey support levels are at the 50-day EMA of $65,045 and the 20-day EMA of $64,475. Key resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band and the bear market resistance band around $66,578. Extended resistance is at the 100-day EMA of $67,717. The key floor is the lower Bollinger Band at $62,243.

QWhat geopolitical event does the article suggest could act as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin's price?

AThe article suggests that Iran signaling a readiness to suspend attacks, conditional on the US halting military operations, could be a positive macro catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto markets, potentially reducing geopolitical risk premiums.

QAccording to Benjamin Cowen's analysis, what historical pattern is Bitcoin's 2026 structure mirroring, and what is his base case outcome?

ABenjamin Cowen's analysis shows Bitcoin's 2026 structure mirroring 2018: a February low, a high low in late March, June lows retested in early July, and a rally back to the bear market resistance band. His base case is a similar outcome where the rally lasts until late July, followed by a pullback in August and September, with Q4 forming the market cycle bottom.

QWhat is Anthony Scaramucci's long-term outlook for Bitcoin's market capitalization, and what asset does he use as a benchmark?

AAnthony Scaramucci's long-term outlook is that Bitcoin's market cap could reach $10 trillion. He uses gold's market cap of $28 trillion as a benchmark, arguing Bitcoin is scarcer, more portable, and easier to move than the precious metal it increasingly competes with.

QWhat are the article's outlined 'Upside Case' and 'Downside Case' scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement?

AUpside Case: The Iran ceasefire signal holds, BTC closes above the $66,578 resistance (upper Bollinger Band & bear market band), the Fed holds rates on July 29, and a 'green week' propels price toward the 100-day EMA at $67,717. Downside Case: Cowen's 2018 analog plays out, BTC is rejected at the bear market band, support at the 50-day EMA ($65,045) fails, and price descends toward the $64,410-64,475 support zone (Bollinger midline & 20-day EMA) amid August seasonal weakness.

Leituras Relacionadas

The 800x Golden Dog, "Gacha" Saves NFT Trading

Title: 800x Golden Dog: How 'Gacha' Mechanics Are Rescuing NFT Trading In the past month, the on-chain TCG (Trading Card Game) narrative, centered around "gacha" or loot box mechanics, has emerged as a major crypto-native revenue generator, second only to platforms like Hyperliquid and pump.fun. Recently, this trend hit Ethereum with Fake World Assets (FWA). Within just over a week, FWA generated approximately $1.3 million in revenue, ranking 15th in the past week's crypto app earnings. Its token, $FWA, surged from an initial market cap of ~$47,550 to a peak of ~$38.8 million—an 800x gain. Meanwhile, Collector Cards' token $CARDS declined significantly from its previous highs. FWA, developed by the team behind "PunkStrategy," operates as an NFT gacha system with a built-in token flywheel. Users deposit NFTs paired with ETH as liquidity into pools. Each deposit creates a personal pool; more ETH deposited lowers the chance of the NFT being "won" in a draw. Players spend ETH to "draw" (gacha). If they get an undesirable NFT, they can instantly sell it back to the original depositor at an 85% discount, generating income for the depositor. A 1% fee is taken on each draw and on depositor earnings when an NFT is kept. The key to FWA's momentum is its token $FWA. It cannot be bought directly externally. The primary way to acquire it is by playing the gacha and choosing to receive $FWA (instead of ETH) when selling back an unwanted NFT. This mechanism creates constant buy pressure for $FWA as players engage, especially during its price ascent. Early participants who held $FWA benefited massively from subsequent inflows. This contrasts with projects like Collector Cards, which, despite strong revenues, suffer from perceived low token utility beyond buybacks. In conclusion, while FWA's flywheel design—linking speculative token gains directly to NFT trading activity—has driven rapid growth, its sustainability is questionable. The model relies heavily on continuous $FWA price appreciation to offset the inherent negative expectancy of each draw. When price momentum stalls, activity will likely decline. The case highlights that in crypto markets, pure profitability narratives can be fleeting; understanding the relationship between attention, token buy pressure, and sustainable mechanics is crucial to avoid speculative pitfalls.

marsbitHá 23m

The 800x Golden Dog, "Gacha" Saves NFT Trading

marsbitHá 23m

The Quantum Computing Threat Approaches, Cryptocurrency May Be Exposed to Risks Before Banks

Quantum computing poses a significant threat to all cryptographic systems, including banks and governments, but decentralized cryptocurrencies with public ledgers like Bitcoin are likely the first practical target. Experts warn that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC), capable of running Shor's algorithm to break the elliptic curve cryptography securing most crypto wallets, could emerge around 2029. Recent research shows the required quantum resources for such attacks are shrinking dramatically, potentially enabling key extraction in minutes. The core vulnerability for cryptocurrencies is not the cryptography itself—post-quantum standards are being developed—but the slow, decentralized governance required to implement upgrades. Unlike centralized banks that can swiftly transition, Bitcoin needs near-unanimous consensus among its global network, a historically difficult process as seen in past upgrades. Estimates suggest migrating all vulnerable Bitcoin funds could take at least 76 days of dedicated network time, and it must be completed before a CRQC exists to prevent "now-or-never" attacks on exposed keys. The threat is not binary; it begins when a quantum computer can decrypt data before it loses value, not necessarily in real-time. A significant portion of Bitcoin (estimated at millions of coins) already has public keys permanently exposed on-chain, making them vulnerable to eventual "static attacks." While technical solutions exist, the race is against time for decentralized networks to coordinate a defensive transition, serving as an early warning for the broader financial system.

marsbitHá 34m

The Quantum Computing Threat Approaches, Cryptocurrency May Be Exposed to Risks Before Banks

marsbitHá 34m

Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach

The long-awaited US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) faces a major hurdle over its ethics provisions, potentially derailing the bill. While there is broad agreement on the need for clearer digital asset rules, negotiators are divided. Democrats argue the current proposal's ethics rules are too weak and object to relying solely on the Department of Justice for enforcement, preferring state attorneys general have a role. They express concerns about conflicts of interest, citing President Trump's substantial crypto ventures. Republicans defend the provisions as historically strong and insist federal law should be enforced uniformly by the DOJ. The latest draft would ban senior federal officials from issuing digital assets while in office, with restrictions expiring in 2029. Despite the impasse, many observers believe a compromise is still possible. Industry representatives warn that rejecting the bill could leave no regulatory framework at all, whereas passing it would provide crucial certainty. The debate has now narrowed to finalizing ethics enforcement, seen as a sign of progress on the broader bill.

cointelegraphHá 43m

Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach

cointelegraphHá 43m

On the First Day of Listing, Changxin Technology's Market Value Exceeds 3 Trillion Yuan, Which Securities Firm Has the Largest Floating Profit?

On July 27th, Changxin Technology, the largest-ever IPO on China's STAR Market, debuted with its share price soaring 465.82% to close at 49 yuan. Its market capitalization reached 3.28 trillion yuan, instantly making it the most valuable A-share company. The stellar performance delivered substantial gains for involved securities firms, primarily through equity investments rather than underwriting fees. China Merchants Securities emerged as the biggest winner. Its direct investment subsidiary, Zhaozheng Investment, alone holds a 0.54% pre-issue stake, translating to a paper profit exceeding 155 billion yuan based on the first-day closing price—surpassing the firm's entire 2025 net profit of 123.5 billion yuan. Other major beneficiaries include Huaan Securities, with an estimated profit of around 123 billion yuan from its 0.44% stake, and the lead underwriters, CICC and CITIC Securities, which each gained approximately 46 billion yuan from mandatory follow-on investments. Firms like Founder Securities, Haitong Securities, and GF Securities also reported significant holdings valued in the billions. Despite these paper gains, shares of some brokerages like Huaan and China Merchants fell on the listing day, reflecting broader market pressures. Analysts remain bullish on Changxin's long-term prospects, citing the AI-driven demand surge for DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) and a supportive supply-demand dynamic with projected shortages through 2028. As China's largest and most advanced integrated DRAM designer and manufacturer, Changxin is poised to capture growth from domestic substitution and global market shifts, potentially challenging the current "big three" oligopoly (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). The IPO proceeds, focused on capacity upgrades and R&D, are expected to accelerate China's semiconductor self-sufficiency.

marsbitHá 1h

On the First Day of Listing, Changxin Technology's Market Value Exceeds 3 Trillion Yuan, Which Securities Firm Has the Largest Floating Profit?

marsbitHá 1h

Will Changxin Technology Continue to Rise Today?

Changxin Technology made a historic debut on the stock market, with its share price soaring 465.82% to close at 49 yuan. Its market capitalization reached 3.28 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the largest company by market cap on the A-share market. Daily trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan, a first in A-share history. This created a moment of realization for 7.7 million investors who won the lottery for its shares. On the first day, investor strategies varied: some sold immediately and later regretted missing intraday highs, others secured profits to avoid future volatility, while a third group held or even bought more shares, betting on long-term growth. The staggering IPO, massive public enthusiasm, and debut during a peak industry cycle led some to compare Changxin to PetroChina's 2007 listing, which was followed by a long decline. Key similarities noted include comparable fundraising scales (approx. 666 billion yuan for Changxin vs. 668 billion for PetroChina) and both companies listing at a perceived high point in their respective commodity cycles (oil then, memory chips now). However, analysts caution against over-simplifying the comparison. They highlight core differences: Changxin operates in the high-growth semiconductor sector with strong "domestic substitution" tailwinds. Brokerages like Huaxi Securities project significant revenue and profit growth from 2026 to 2028, driven by DDR5 adoption, product mix optimization, and economies of scale. Nomura Securities issued a "buy" rating with a 116 yuan target price, citing AI-driven demand for DRAM, tight supply as major players shift to HBM production, and Changxin's vast room for market share growth. Some analysts position the current memory cycle, fueled by AI, as just beginning, contrasting with the mature energy cycle PetroChina entered. The article concludes that for investors, monitoring the memory cycle's progression and Changxin's breakthroughs in high-end technologies like HBM will be crucial, rather than relying on superficial historical parallels.

marsbitHá 1h

Will Changxin Technology Continue to Rise Today?

marsbitHá 1h

Trading

Spot

Artigos em Destaque

Como comprar BAND

Bem-vindo à HTX.com!Tornámos a compra de Band Protocol (BAND) simples e conveniente.Segue o nosso guia passo a passo para iniciar a tua jornada no mundo das criptos.Passo 1: cria a tua conta HTXUtiliza o teu e-mail ou número de telefone para te inscreveres numa conta gratuita na HTX.Desfruta de um processo de inscrição sem complicações e desbloqueia todas as funcionalidades.Obter a minha contaPasso 2: vai para Comprar Cripto e escolhe o teu método de pagamentoCartão de crédito/débito: usa o teu visa ou mastercard para comprar Band Protocol (BAND) instantaneamente.Saldo: usa os fundos da tua conta HTX para transacionar sem problemas.Terceiros: adicionamos métodos de pagamento populares, como Google Pay e Apple Pay, para aumentar a conveniência.P2P: transaciona diretamente com outros utilizadores na HTX.Mercado de balcão (OTC): oferecemos serviços personalizados e taxas de câmbio competitivas para os traders.Passo 3: armazena teu Band Protocol (BAND)Depois de comprar o teu Band Protocol (BAND), armazena-o na tua conta HTX.Alternativamente, podes enviá-lo para outro lugar através de transferência blockchain ou usá-lo para transacionar outras criptomoedas.Passo 4: transaciona Band Protocol (BAND)Transaciona facilmente Band Protocol (BAND) no mercado à vista da HTX.Acede simplesmente à tua conta, seleciona o teu par de trading, executa as tuas transações e monitoriza em tempo real.Oferecemos uma experiência de fácil utilização tanto para principiantes como para traders experientes.

162 Visualizações TotaisPublicado em {updateTime}Atualizado em 2026.06.02

Como comprar BAND

Discussões

Bem-vindo à Comunidade HTX. Aqui, pode manter-se informado sobre os mais recentes desenvolvimentos da plataforma e obter acesso a análises profissionais de mercado. As opiniões dos utilizadores sobre o preço de BAND (BAND) são apresentadas abaixo.

活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow