【重磅解读】美联储加息预期减弱利好BTC反弹，LTC领涨主流币

jinjin说币Publicado em 2022-12-05Última atualização em 2022-12-06

Resumo

BTC反弹预期增强。

1、BTC价格短线反弹

BTC短线小幅反弹期间，价格以及达到了压力位斐波那契78.6%对应的17246美元以上。这表明，持续反弹的过程中，4小时K线图中价格表现较好，行情已经处在了反弹过程中。在没有消息面利空的情况下，BTC有望延续这种小幅回升态势，直到价格触及短线压力位。典型的日K线级别压力位在高位25000美元，这是8月15日提示的反转点位。而大区级震荡的时候，关键的斐波那契61.8%对应的28308美元是不容忽视的压力位。

2、美联储加息预期较弱

美联储11月再次加息0.75个百分点以后，预期美联储继续大幅度加息的预期已经减弱。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的“美联储观察(FedWatch)”工具显示，有79.4%的投资者押注会在12月份加息50个基点，而押注美联储12月加息75个基点的投资者占比为20.6%。据此判断，美联储加息预期已经开始减弱。加息力度降低，对金融市场以及BTC价格的打压预期降低，对反弹预期的刺激增强。

仓位上，目前可以积极配置BTC等主流币。考虑到美联储加息结束还有较长时间，因此还不能在仓位中过多加注。

3、ETH 价格表现强势

随着反弹走势延续，ETH触及1300美元压力位，距离脱离底部区域更进一步。从目前来看，ETH处在了关键的筑底成功阶段。从涨幅来看，ETH短期波动空间较小，但是价格有恢复上涨的预期。因此，可关注本次反弹行情持续的时间和涨幅空间。

4、ETH 融资利率反弹

ETH的融资利率小幅回升，这不同于前期融资利率大幅度回落的表现。从数值上看，ETH融资利率从11月28日到12月5日，连续8个交易日维持正数值。从融资利率连续反弹来看，ETH或已经在反弹的路上了。ETH在9月份和11月份的融资利率低至-0.199和-0.06，但是价格只经历短线回落就已经开始止跌回升。因此，目前仍然是低吸买入ETH的阶段。

5、LTC短线强势回升

随着主流币不断走强，LTC作为领涨币种，价格发力上涨超过8%的背景下，日K线图中已经靠近布林线上轨。从目前来看，LTC先后3次拉升，本次是LTC在11月份反弹以后的第三次回升，其领涨势头明确。成交量方面，LTC目前的量能表现是6月份以来最高水平，因此行情将在回升趋势中延续。

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