【重磅解读】BTC抛压仍居恐怖高位,XRP融资利率创新低提示风险

火币资讯Publicado em 2022-09-23Última atualização em 2022-09-26

Resumo

BTC随时酝酿周末下跌行情,XRP融资利率暴跌,提示风险。

1、BTC仍然放量运行

BTC价格近期表现虽然回撤,但是交易量并未收缩。过去3周内的交易量非常高,是近一年来最大的交易量表现,意味着投资者对低价位的BTC没有失去兴趣。从投资者的持币成本来看,BTC投资者的持币成本更为集中在2.5万美元以下的价格区域。近3周内,投资者持币成本价进一步集中到2.2万美元下方。因此,短期内BTC价格在低位盘旋,调整节奏延续,价格脱离底部区域所需时间会更长。换句话说,BTC的底部回升一个规模庞大的圆弧底,这个底部持续时间越长,投资者的低吸机会越多。

2、BTC平均交易流入增长

BTC的平均流入量维持在高位运行,9月23日数值维持在0.877附近,表明近期虽然近期整体数值并未增长,但是平均的交易流入维持在高位。这说明,主力资金流入交易所的趋势并未持续结束迹象。因此,BTC近期低位运行的下跌风险并未解除。对于持币投资者来讲,需要进一步关注行情走向。BTC虽然持币重心明显降低,但是主动拉盘的投资者不多,对市场影响不高。

3、ETH反弹无果而终

ETH 短线反弹期间交易量不高,价格虽然在前期1200美元位置获得支撑,但是涨幅空间较小。因此,日K线级别的回落趋势中,ETH并未完全摆脱价格颓势。周内价格走势依然表现为回落,并且周末继续收盘下跌的可能性很高。消息面上,近期美联储加息动作完成期间,ETH价格回撤明显联动股市、美元指数等重要资产走向。因此,在判断行情表现的时候,周内负面情绪依然主导价格方向,警惕回调表现。

4、XRP融资利率大跌

XRP近期价格表现相对强势,与交易量持续增长有关。日K线图中显示,近期XRP交易量增长了多达300%,推动XRP价格从0.3美元的低位反弹至最高0.559美元,最大涨幅达到86%。

值得关注的是,不管是日K线还是30分钟图,XRP都为出现明显的放量调整表现。因此,XRP近期价格强势或将延续。而融资利率下挫,提示了抛售压力增长,值得投资者关注。

5、融资利率回撤

XRP融资利率快速回落期间,数值持续下降到了最低-0.003%附近。因此,判断XRP的抛售压力出现了显著增长,对价格的影响也在增加。虽然融资利率达到数值新低,但是绝对数值并不算低。XRP价格刚刚完成了从5月开始的底部反转形态,涨幅潜力或进一步确认。

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