【重磅解读】1.4万美元的BTC支撑点需关注,ETH套牢盘陡增

火币资讯Publicado em 2022-09-19Última atualização em 2022-09-20

Resumo

BTC多头抵抗明显减弱,同期ETH套牢盘明显增加,颓势难料。

1、BTC跌势延续

BTC在周K线级别上迹象表现为回落,价格不仅在区间低位持续走弱,而且有进一步跌破前期最低价的迹象。交易量方面,近期周K线显示的成交量回升迹象非常明显,使得BTC已经在不知不觉中跌破了更多投资者的交易成本价,意味着本次价格下跌趋势加速的可能性较大。考虑到前期低位是17622美元,而本次BT价格若迹象破位,还可能轻松达到2020年期间的价格平台1万到1.4万美元的平台。

2、BTC套牢盘增加

未确认的BTC套牢盘回升到高位,非常接近0.5的亏损数值。9月18日数值反弹到了0.469的短线高位。虽然6月18日BTC未确认亏损一度达到了0.566,但是平均数值维持在0.5以上的情况相对有限。因此,本次BTC价格若能继续回撤,其未确认的亏损盘将明显增加,继续推动BTC价格回落。

3、BTC平均抛售压力增加

从流入到交易所的平均流入BTC数量来看,近期数值不断攀升到年内峰值,意味着BTC的抛压增长并非在短时间内形成,而是在过去2个月内持续增长的结果。峰值上,9月13日流入交易所的平均BTC数量增加到了2.23枚BTC,9月19日继续回升到了2.26附近。从BTC平均流入交易所数量的表现来看,数值在2个交易日里达到2个BTC的情况并不多见。意味着近期BTC抛压增长,下跌预期在逐步加强。

4、ETH价格欲创新低

ETH价格近期跌幅快速下跌,上周周K线的累计跌幅达到了24%。从支撑点位的确认来看,除了近期ETH确认过的最低881美元以外,2018年4月持续的峰值800美元也是相对强的支撑点位。尽管如此,ETH近期价格走势较弱,支撑线的确认还需要价格反弹来检验才行。

5、ETH接收地址数回升

ETH的接收地址数明显反弹到短线给我,9月15日和9月16日的接收地址数达到了30万和29.8万,相对近3月内的平均数值21万附近出现了显著增长。相应的,对应这两个交易日ETH的价格下跌了10%和2.54%。也就是说,更多中小投资者在ETH下跌的过程中获得了看似廉价的ETH,对应的交易成本价在1434到1638美元。因此,随着ETH价格跌幅不断扩大,并且跌破了短线中小投资者的成本价,下跌节奏正在加快。

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