Unexpectedly Negative! US July Retail Sales Drop 0.6% Month-over-Month, Marking the Largest Decline in Over a Year
U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall Sharply in July
U.S. retail sales in July declined by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the largest drop since May 2025 and falling significantly short of the market expectation for a 0.1% gain. The cooling demand, driven by decreases in auto purchases and online sales, has prompted a more cautious outlook on consumer spending resilience for the second half of the year.
The closely watched "control group" sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services and directly feed into GDP calculations, fell 0.4%, missing expectations of a 0.3% increase. Core retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) also fell 0.2%, against an anticipated 0.3% rise. Economists attribute the weakness to several factors: the fading boost from excess tax refunds earlier in the year, a decline in personal savings rates, and temporary disruptions. These include the shift of major promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day to June, hot weather around the July 4 holiday, and the post-World Cup spending lull. Specific categories like clothing, gasoline, and furniture saw declines.
Notably, the consumption slowdown is accompanied by a shift in spending patterns across income groups. Recent data shows spending growth among low-income households has outpaced that of high-income households in recent weeks, even for discretionary goods, suggesting a potential convergence from the previous "K-shaped" economic recovery into a more uniform "C-shaped" pattern. Year-on-year, retail sales still grew 5.0%, indicating an overall robust level, but the sharp monthly miss is expected to increase pressure for downward revisions to Q3 GDP growth forecasts.
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