七倍超额认购，海力士这次能拯救半导体吗？

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2026-07-09Última atualização em 2026-07-09

Resumo

韩国半导体巨头SK海力士计划通过发行美国存托凭证（ADR）在纳斯达克上市，目前已获得超过七倍的超额认购，预计募资约245亿美元，用于韩国本土产能扩张。此次上市正值半导体板块经历显著回调，市场因担忧科技巨头AI资本开支增速可能放缓而出现抛售，SK海力士股价自高点回撤近三成。然而，一级市场认购却异常火爆，多家知名机构表达了强烈的投资意向。这表明长期资金并未完全否定AI基础设施投资的前景，当前的调整更多是估值与预期的修正。有市场观点认为，上市前的股价回调或有意为上市后表现创造空间。文章指出，SK海力士上市可能成为短期市场情绪的催化剂，但半导体板块能否真正反转，核心仍取决于微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等科技巨头未来的资本开支计划及其商业回报。接下来几个季度的财报将是关键观察窗口。

原创 | Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina)

作者|Azuma(@azuma_eth)

彭博社今晨援引知情人士消息表示,韩国半导体巨头 SK 海力士在美发行的“美国存托凭证”(ADR)认购倍数已超过七倍,有望成为美国历史上规模最大的外资上市项目。

此前在 6 月底,SK 海力士已向美国 SEC 提交了 F-1 招股说明书,拟通过发行 1.779 亿份 ADR 登陆纳斯达克(每份 ADR 对应普通股十分之一股权),依据韩国市场周三收盘价 2076000 韩元(约合 1380 美元)折算,本次募资总额预计将达到约 245 亿美元。本次募资资金将全部用于韩国本土产能扩张,包括龙仁晶圆厂、清州先进封装产线,以及 EUV 及相关设备投入。

SK 赴美之际,半导体板块正在深蹲

SK 海力士赴美上市的同时,整个半导体板块正在经历一轮猛烈回调。

过去两年间,AI 基础设施投资是推动半导体板块上涨的核心驱动力。受益于微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等科技巨头持续扩张的资本开支,以 GPU、HBM 存储以及先进制程设备为代表的产业链实现了业绩上的大爆发,并推动股价一路高涨。

但近期,市场开始重新审视这一逻辑的持续性。先是 Meta 被曝计划出售部分闲置算力资源,被市场解读为科技巨头已释放出了优化 AI 基础设施投入的信号,随即黑石旗下原计划打造的世界最大数据中心项目也被取消,进一步强化了市场对于数据中心需求增速放缓的担忧。

这些事件本身与“AI 投资周期”已经结束并不完全对等,但却触发了市场对于一个关键问题的重新定价 —— 在数千亿美元的资本投入后,科技巨头的 AI 资本开支还能否维持当前增速?

受此影响,AI 产业链近期普遍承压。从芯片、存储到半导体设备,市场交易逻辑开始从“需求无限增长”转向“未来增长是否还能兑现”。SK 海力士股价也出现了明显回调,自 6 月 25 日的 2917000 韩元高点跌至昨日收盘的 2076000 韩元,最大回撤接近三成。

二级承压,一级却极度疯狂

有意思的是,在二级市场持续调整之际,SK 海力士的美股上市却获得了远超预期的资金追捧。

前文提到,本次 ADR 发行认购倍数已经超过七倍,机构热情相当旺盛。而根据 SK 海力士路演资料中所披露的信息,本次认购需求主要来自全球长线基金、科技主题基金、主权财富基金以及亚洲主题投资者等多类机构,其中 Baillie Gifford、Coatue Management 和 Situational Awareness Partners 等机构已表达了合计约 70 亿美元的认购意向。

注意这里的 Situational Awareness,这是由新晋“AI 股神” Leopold Aschenbrenner 所掌控的基金,可以说是本轮 AI 周期战绩最炸裂的基金了。详情可参阅《SBF的小弟,一年时间把2.25亿变成了55亿》,《速览24岁“AI股神”的最新布局:六成仓位对冲半导体下行》。

机构的热逐意味着,至少从长期资金视角来看,市场并未完全否定 AI 基础设施投资周期。事实上,近期半导体板块的回调,本质上更多是估值与预期层面的调整,而非产业基本面的逆转。投资者担忧的是未来资本开支增速是否放缓,而不是当前 HBM、AI 芯片等核心产品是否失去需求。

此外值得一提的是,市场近期也流传着一种关于 SK 海力士上市节奏的猜测:在登陆纳斯达克之前,股价经历一轮明显调整,或许是为了上市之后走得更好看,公司、承销商、机构、散户都皆大欢喜......

这一逻辑未必能够被完全验证,但在交易层面,它确实有可能强化市场对于 IPO 后走势的乐观预期 —— 对于发行方而言,更低的估值起点有利于上市后的价格表现;对于认购机构而言,这也意味着更大的潜在上涨空间。

因此,SK 海力士本次的赴美上市,很有可能成为短期内半导体市场情绪转变的重要节点。

真正的反转信号,要看科技巨头的下一张答卷

但仅仅是 SK 海力士美股 IPO 的火热,似乎还不能完全解答半导体板块的调整是否已结束。

从产业周期来看,当前市场争议的核心,并非 AI 的需求是仍需否存在,而是科技巨头还能否继续维持当前规模的资本投入。过去两年,微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等公司不断加码 AI 基础设施建设,推动全球数据中心投资进入高速扩张阶段。根据各大科技巨头此前公布的计划,未来几年 AI 相关资本开支仍将维持高位。

但与此同时,随着投入规模不断扩大,投资者也开始愈发关注“这些巨额的资本投入,何时能够转化为实际商业回报”。

如果 AI 应用增长能够匹配基础设施投入,那么当前半导体板块的调整就更像是上涨后的估值消化;但如果科技巨头开始放缓数据中心建设、降低 GPU 采购节奏,那么市场此前给予 AI 产业链的高增长预期将面临重新修正。因此,接下来几个季度的科技巨头财报,将成为判断半导体行情方向的关键。

换句话说,SK 海力士上市或许能够成为半导体板块短线情绪的催化剂,但真正决定 AI 周期能否延续的,仍然是微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等科技巨头对于未来资本开支的明确答案。

Perguntas relacionadas

QSK海力士在美国发行ADR的认购倍数是多少，预计募资总额是多少？

A认购倍数已超过七倍。预计募资总额将达到约245亿美元。

Q本次SK海力士赴美上市募集的资金计划用于何处？

A募资资金将全部用于韩国本土产能扩张，包括龙仁晶圆厂、清州先进封装产线，以及EUV及相关设备投入。

Q近期半导体板块回调的主要原因是什么？

A市场开始重新审视科技巨头AI基础设施资本开支的持续性。Meta计划出售闲置算力、黑石取消数据中心项目等事件，引发了市场对AI投资增速能否维持的担忧，导致板块估值和预期调整。

Q哪些重要机构表达了对SK海力士ADR的认购意向？

ABaillie Gifford、Coatue Management和Situational Awareness Partners等机构已表达了合计约70亿美元的认购意向。

Q文章认为，真正决定AI周期能否延续的关键信号是什么？

A接下来几个季度微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等科技巨头的财报，尤其是它们对未来AI相关资本开支的明确计划和指引，将成为判断半导体行情方向的关键。

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