Shiba Inu's bear run can continue for another 7 months – Here’s why

ambcryptoPublicado em 2026-03-22Última atualização em 2026-03-22

Resumo

Berdasarkan analisis, Shiba Inu (SHIB) menunjukkan tanda-tanda bearish yang kuat dalam jangka panjang. Dua metrik kunci, yaitu persentase suplai yang menguntungkan (hanya 3,07%) dan rasio MVRV yang menyimpang jauh dari rata-rata, mengonfirmasi sentimen pesimis yang mendalam di antara pemegangnya. Pola ini mirip dengan kondisi bear market sebelumnya yang berlangsung selama berbulan-bulan. Jika tren historis terulang, diperkirakan fase bearish ini dapat berlanjut hingga September 2026. Meskipun ada berita potensial seperti ETF yang diusulkan oleh T.Rowe Price, hal tersebut kemungkinan tidak cukup untuk mengubah tren bearish yang telah mengakar. Struktur harga pada timeframe tinggi tetap lemah, dan setiap kenaikan harga kemungkinan hanya akan menjadi peluang jual, bukan awal dari breakout.

Memecoin teratas belum menunjukkan kemajuan signifikan dari posisi sebelumnya. Di antara empat memecoin teratas berdasarkan kapitalisasi pasar, Shiba Inu [SHIB] dan Pepe [PEPE] hanya bergerak dalam rentang 2% dari harga mereka seminggu lalu.

Memecoin [M] telah naik 10% dalam seminggu terakhir, sementara Dogecoin [DOGE] turun 3,8%.

Shiba Inu mengalami penurunan 0,51% dari minggu lalu. Kurangnya momentum Bitcoin dalam beberapa hari terakhir kemungkinan mempengaruhi aset-aset teratas di sektor memecoin. Kinerja jangka pendek yang biasa-biasa saja ini hanyalah kamuflase.

Bahkan jika SHIB mengalami kenaikan 10% atau lebih minggu depan, sentimen pemegang jangka panjang akan tetap bearish. Dua metrik membantu menjelaskan pesimisme di balik meme ini.

2 area kekhawatiran untuk bull Shiba Inu

Metrik persentase suplai yang menguntungkan melacak persentase suplai beredar SHIB yang menghasilkan keuntungan. Saat ini, angkanya hanya 3,07%. Sebagai perbandingan, Oktober 2023 mencatat 3,93% suplai yang menguntungkan, angka terendah dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

Februari 2026 menunjukkan metrik ini mencapai 2,86%. Suplai beredar baru-baru ini berada pada level keuntungan pasar bear. Kerugian pemegang yang dalam berarti sentimen sekitar memecoin ini sangat pesimis.

Rasio MVRV dan deviasinya dari rata-rata sepanjang masa juga dapat digunakan untuk menandai ekstrem dalam harga SHIB. Selama pasar bear 2022, MVRV berada antara 0,5 dan 1 deviasi standar di bawah rata-rata.

Ini merupakan deviasi ekstrem yang berlangsung dari Mei 2022 hingga Januari 2023. Jika tren yang sama terulang, Shiba Inu dapat mengalami pasar bear yang berlanjut hingga September 2026.

Profitabilitas rendah dan nilai MVRV yang sangat rendah mengkonfirmasi pasar bear multi-bulan yang akan datang untuk SHIB. Bahkan berita, seperti ETF yang diusulkan oleh T.Rowe Price yang dapat diperluas ke aset volatile seperti Shiba Inu, mungkin tidak cukup untuk mengangkat memecoin dari tren bearish-nya.

Struktur harga pada timeframe yang lebih tinggi bersifat bearish. Pantulan menuju swing high akan memberikan peluang penjualan dan kecil kemungkinannya menjadi perdagangan tipe breakout.

Ringkasan Akhir

Suplai beredar yang menguntungkan dan deviasi ekstrem dalam MVRV dari rata-rata sepanjang masa mengkonfirmasi bahwa Shiba Inu berada dalam pasar bear siklis.
Jika tren historis terulang, pasar bear saat ini kemungkinan akan bertahan hingga September 2026.

Perguntas relacionadas

QApa yang menyebabkan performa bearish Shiba Inu (SHIB) dalam jangka panjang?

ADua metrik utama yang menunjukkan sentimen bearish adalah persentase suplai yang menguntungkan hanya 3,07% dan rasio MVRV yang menyimpang ekstrem dari rata-rata sepanjang masa, mengonfirmasi pasar bearish siklis.

QBerapa persen suplai beredar Shiba Inu yang saat ini menghasilkan keuntungan?

APada saat artikel ditulis, hanya 3,07% dari suplai beredar SHIB yang berada dalam kondisi untung, yang merupakan level terendah seperti yang terlihat di pasar bearish.

QSampai kapan bear market Shiba Inu diprediksi berlangsung berdasarkan tren historis?

ABerdasarkan pola deviasi MVRV selama bear market 2022, diprediksi bear market saat ini dapat berlanjut hingga September 2026.

QApakah berita seperti ETF yang diusulkan T.Rowe Price dapat mengubah tren bearish SHIB?

AMenurut artikel, bahkan berita seperti ETF yang mungkin mencakup aset volatile seperti SHIB kemungkinan tidak cukup untuk mengangkat memecoin dari tren bearishnya.

QBagaimana performa Shiba Inu dibandingkan dengan memecoin top lainnya dalam seminggu terakhir?

ASHIB turun 0,51% dalam seminggu, sementara PEPE juga stagnan (-2%), DOGE turun 3,8%, dan hanya Memecoin (M) yang naik 10%.

Leituras Relacionadas

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

Kraken plans to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual futures for eligible US professional traders through its acquired derivatives exchange, Bitnomial. These contracts, featuring continuous pricing, no expiry, and regular funding, aim to provide a regulated domestic route to a product that is central to global crypto trading but has been largely inaccessible on US platforms. The offering is expected to be integrated into Kraken Pro, allowing traders to manage various exposures in one interface. Key factors for success will include eligibility criteria, contract design, and the development of sufficient liquidity. This move could pave the way for more regulated perpetual products in the US market.

bitcoinistHá 3h

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

bitcoinistHá 3h

Warsh's Debut: Will the FED Chair Who Knows Crypto Best Bring Surprises or Shocks to the Market?

Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, prepares for his inaugural press conference amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape: resurgent inflation, a bond market sell-off, and political pressure from President Trump for rate cuts. Uniquely, Warsh holds indirect investments in over 20 crypto and Web3 entities (e.g., Solana, dYdX), making him the first Fed Chair with disclosed crypto exposure. His stance may combine a hawkish, inflation-focused monetary policy with a crypto-friendly regulatory philosophy that shifts from Powell’s “same risk, same rule” approach toward a framework acknowledging blockchain’s productivity value. Warsh’s leadership could impact crypto markets across three dimensions: a paradigm shift in regulation (potentially accelerating pro-innovation legislation and stable币 rules), a re-pricing of risk premiums based on clearer communication and his view of AI as a structural disinflationary force, and a long-term reallocation of global institutional capital driven by increased legitimacy. Two potential scenarios for the press conference are outlined. A “positive surprise” would involve a dovish-leaning tone on rates coupled with signals of regulatory openness, potentially boosting crypto asset valuations. Conversely, a “negative shock” would see a more hawkish-than-expected stance on inflation and rates, triggering a broad risk-asset selloff that crypto markets would not escape. While ethics rules required Warsh to divest his crypto holdings upon confirmation, his deep understanding of the technology may fundamentally lower policy uncertainty and build a more receptive long-term foundation for digital assets’ integration into the mainstream financial system.

marsbitHá 3h

Warsh's Debut: Will the FED Chair Who Knows Crypto Best Bring Surprises or Shocks to the Market?

marsbitHá 3h

XRP Ledger Launches XRPLd Rebrand With Version 3.2.0 Upgrade

XRP Ledger has launched version 3.2.0, rebranding its core server software from "rippled" to "xrpld." This release focuses on back-end upgrades, including major memory optimizations that can reduce server memory usage by up to 40% and architectural improvements for future scaling. Key updates enhance security for features like vaults, lending, and decentralized exchanges, and introduce new invariant checks for ledger consistency. The upgrade also adds the capability for applications to retrieve protocol information without connecting to a server, aiding wallet and API development. Additional changes aim to improve enterprise connectivity and performance, featuring configurable block sizes and an updated default peering port, along with various fixes for core network functions.

TheNewsCryptoHá 4h

XRP Ledger Launches XRPLd Rebrand With Version 3.2.0 Upgrade

TheNewsCryptoHá 4h

AGI is Not the End, DeepMind's New Paper: Moving Towards ASI, the Real AI Progress Has Just Begun

In a new report, Google DeepMind researchers argue that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is not the end goal, but rather a step toward Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). They outline four potential pathways for this transition: 1) continued scaling of compute, models, and data; 2) algorithmic evolution and potential paradigm shifts; 3) recursive self-improvement; and 4) multi-agent coordination and collective intelligence. The report also identifies six key bottlenecks that could hinder progress: data limitations (the "data wall"), economic and resource pressures, limitations of current neural network paradigms, increasing research difficulty, "abstraction barriers" in forming new concepts, and regulatory and societal pushback. Looking ahead, the authors emphasize the need for new evaluation methods once AI surpasses human benchmarks. They call for a large-scale, interdisciplinary effort to prepare for a future where AI-driven advancements could trigger transformative changes across multiple fields. The path and speed of progress remain uncertain, constrained by physical laws, computational complexity, and real-world feedback loops.

marsbitHá 5h

AGI is Not the End, DeepMind's New Paper: Moving Towards ASI, the Real AI Progress Has Just Begun

marsbitHá 5h

Kraken Launches Pre-IPO Perps For OpenAI And Anthropic With Up To 5x Leverage

Kraken has launched pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts for private AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic, offering eligible traders up to 5x leverage. These derivatives provide synthetic exposure to the companies' valuations ahead of any public listing, tapping into high investor demand for AI themes. However, the product carries unique risks compared to standard crypto perpetuals, as private company valuations lack transparent, continuous pricing and depend on funding rounds, secondary transactions, and IPO timelines. This move signals crypto exchanges' expansion into alternative speculative markets beyond digital assets, though it raises questions about risk management, liquidity, and investor understanding, especially when using leverage.

bitcoinistHá 5h

Kraken Launches Pre-IPO Perps For OpenAI And Anthropic With Up To 5x Leverage

bitcoinistHá 5h

Trading

Spot

Futuros

Artigos em Destaque

Como comprar TOP

Bem-vindo à HTX.com!Tornámos a compra de TOP AI Network (TOP) simples e conveniente.Segue o nosso guia passo a passo para iniciar a tua jornada no mundo das criptos.Passo 1: cria a tua conta HTXUtiliza o teu e-mail ou número de telefone para te inscreveres numa conta gratuita na HTX.Desfruta de um processo de inscrição sem complicações e desbloqueia todas as funcionalidades.Obter a minha contaPasso 2: vai para Comprar Cripto e escolhe o teu método de pagamentoCartão de crédito/débito: usa o teu visa ou mastercard para comprar TOP AI Network (TOP) instantaneamente.Saldo: usa os fundos da tua conta HTX para transacionar sem problemas.Terceiros: adicionamos métodos de pagamento populares, como Google Pay e Apple Pay, para aumentar a conveniência.P2P: transaciona diretamente com outros utilizadores na HTX.Mercado de balcão (OTC): oferecemos serviços personalizados e taxas de câmbio competitivas para os traders.Passo 3: armazena teu TOP AI Network (TOP)Depois de comprar o teu TOP AI Network (TOP), armazena-o na tua conta HTX.Alternativamente, podes enviá-lo para outro lugar através de transferência blockchain ou usá-lo para transacionar outras criptomoedas.Passo 4: transaciona TOP AI Network (TOP)Transaciona facilmente TOP AI Network (TOP) no mercado à vista da HTX.Acede simplesmente à tua conta, seleciona o teu par de trading, executa as tuas transações e monitoriza em tempo real.Oferecemos uma experiência de fácil utilização tanto para principiantes como para traders experientes.

143 Visualizações TotaisPublicado em {updateTime}Atualizado em 2026.06.02

Discussões

Bem-vindo à Comunidade HTX. Aqui, pode manter-se informado sobre os mais recentes desenvolvimentos da plataforma e obter acesso a análises profissionais de mercado. As opiniões dos utilizadores sobre o preço de TOP (TOP) são apresentadas abaixo.