Bitcoin surged to a high of $71.7K on Tuesday, the 10th of March, following the International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to release record oil from its reserves.
The move was aimed at stabilizing energy markets amid the ongoing crisis at the Strait of Hormuz.
The update saw oil prices drop sharply by 21% from over $100 per barrel to a low of $85. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump’s advisors were pushing for an end to the Iran war to avoid political backlash.
Collectively, these bullish updates dragged oil prices lower while Bitcoin [BTC] soared to $71.7K, underscoring renewed risk-on sentiment on the stabilization of the energy markets.
Too early for Bitcoin FOMO?
In fact, Santiment noted that as BTC topped $70K, ‘FOMO’ spiked as traders grew greedy amid bullish updates.
However, past FOMO spikes were also marked by short-term pullbacks, especially if triggered by long squeezes.
For example, a similar FOMO surge around the 4th of March saw BTC jump to $73K before a sharp pullback to $65K.
If past trends repeat, BTC could retreat to $65K, especially if oil prices rise.
Even so, there was notable resilience despite the ongoing Middle East tensions. The panic sell-off and daily realized losses had sharply dropped from $3 billion to $370 million, noted Bitfinex analysts.
The analysts added that should ETF inflows improve this week, BTC could extend its recovery. Otherwise, the $65K-$72K price range could shrink further. At press time, BTC traded at $69.4K, slightly down from its Tuesday’s peak.
Options insights suggest…
Even so, the Options market painted a broader picture of optimism, perhaps on the back of plans to release oil reserves.
According to Jeff Park, an advisor at asset manager Bitwise, the top five traded BlackRock’s IBIT Options were calls (bullish bets) by volume and notional value.
This meant that institutions were betting on an extended BTC recovery in the near term. However, Deribit data showed that Option traders on the platform were pricing in only a 25% chance that BTC would retest $75K by the end of March.
The divergence between institutional bullish bets and the low odds of reclaiming $75K could be resolved by developments in the Middle East and the energy markets.
Analysts expect the Xi Jinping-Donald Trump meeting, scheduled for the end of March, could offer more clues about the situation in the Middle East.
Before the final Xi-Trump summit, however, there is a preparatory talk between China and the U.S.’s top officials, set to be held in Paris over the weekend (March 14-15).
For analyst Garret Bullish, a negative outcome from the weekend meeting would complicate the Strait of Hormuz situation, affect oil prices, and, by extension, impact BTC.
Final Summary
Bitcoin FOMO spiked earlier in the week as the price topped $70K amid IEA plans to release oil reserves to stabilize energy markets.
Despite strong demand for calls (bullish bets), traders were only pricing a 25% chance BTC would reclaim $75K in March.
