Prédire le marché : Vrais et faux dieux du jeu ; Démasquer un miracle de 8300 fois ; Manipulation des prix pour empocher 230 000 dollars

marsbitPublicado em 2026-01-19Última atualização em 2026-01-19

Resumo

Une prétendue success story sur Polymarket, où un trader aurait transformé 12 $ en 100 000 $ (soit un gain de 8 300x), a été exposée comme une probable fraude. Ascetic, le trader en question, a été accusé d’utiliser de multiples comptes (Sybil farming) pour simuler ces gains miraculeux. Des preuves montrent que plusieurs comptes, créés simultanément, ont été utilisés pour manipuler la perception de sa performance. Bien qu’il ait nié, les soupçons persistent. Parallèlement, un autre trader, a4385, a légitimement gagné 233 000 $ en exploitant une faille sur le marché de prédiction à court terme sur XRP. Pendant une période de faible liquidité un week-end, il a acheté massivement des contrats "à la hausse", poussant les robots market makers à lui vendre davantage à un prix avantageux. Juste avant l’échéance du marché, il a acheté pour 1 million de dollars de XRP sur Binance, faisant monter le prix suffisamment pour garantir son gain, puis a revendu immédiatement après. Cette manipulation lui a permis de réaliser un profit net important aux dépens des robots. L’article met en garde contre les récits trompeurs et rappelle que sur les marchés de prédiction, la frontière entre réalité et manipulation est souvent floue.

Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)

Auteur|Wenser(@wenser 2010)

En tant que secteur d'activité populaire qui continue de monter depuis le début de l'année, le marché des prédictions ne manque pas de miracles de création de richesse.

Mais derrière le miracle, s'agit-il d'un véritable spectacle réalisé grâce à un jugement opportun et une agilité, ou d'une fausse spéculation fabriquée de toutes pièces et obscurcissant la vision, c'est aux spectateurs d'avoir un œil avisé pour distinguer le vrai du faux. Récemment, un trader de Polymarket sur X a posté un message disant avoir réalisé un "miracle de 8300 fois", passant d'un capital de 12 dollars à des paris dépassant 100 000 dollars, mais a été immédiatement dénoncé pour avoir utilisé de multiples comptes falsifiés et fait du trafic ; tandis qu'un autre trader, profitant d'une manipulation du prix du XRP, a empoche 230 000 dollars dans la section "Prédiction hausse/baisse sur 15 minutes", réalisant une récolte unidirectionnelle contre les robots de pari sur Polymarket.

Sur la scène des paris pour ou contre, certains veulent danser avec des mensonges, d'autres exploitent les failles des règles pour acquérir habilement et par la force. Dans le pari du pour et du contre, il n'y a pas de stratégie invincible, seulement des tactiques flexibles.

Le miracle de 8300 fois de 12 dollars à 100 000 dollars : Enseigne vivante de Polymarket VS Arnaque de trader falsifiée

L'histoire commence par un post "auto-déclarant être passé d'un capital de 12 dollars à un profit de 100 000 dollars, réalisant un rendement de 8300 fois" .

Le 16 janvier, le trader ascetic a posté un message disant que grâce à des "paris tout ou rien sur les fluctuations à court terme du Bitcoin", il avait doublé son capital 16 fois de suite et finalement atteint l'étape里程碑式 significative de passer de 12 dollars à 100 000 dollars de profit. En même temps, il a souligné avoir "partagé en détail sa stratégie de pari et les raisons derrière" pendant le processus de pari.

Ensuite, il a mis le lien de son compte Polymarket dans les commentaires, affirmant carrément qu'un tel miracle de création de richesse ne pouvait se produire que sur Polymarket(Note d'Odaily Planet Daily : Ça ne semble-t-il pas familier? Les plateformes avec des expressions similaires utilisées par les traders précédents incluent, sans s'y limiter, OpenSea, Blur, Pump.fun, Hyperliquid, Aster, etc.).

Les commentaires ont ensuite été le théâtre d'une "frénésie euphorique des membres de la communauté Polymarket", d'innombrables personnes l'ont félicité, et même LeGate, responsable de la croissance mondiale de Polymarket, a déclaré : "Félicitations mon frère ! Je pense que tu le mérites ! Félicitations pour avoir obtenu le badge @PolymarketTrade !"(Note d'Odaily Planet Daily : Ce compte est le compte communautaire des traders actifs de Polymarket.)

Si vous pensiez que ce serait un "post 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il s'agissait simplement d'un objectif personnel, nous ne le savons pas.

Comparé à ascetic, dont il est difficile de juger la véracité, le cas suivant, qui a réalisé un profit de 230 000 dollars grâce à une manipulation des prix sur le marché des paris "hausse/baisse sur 15 minutes" du XRP, mérite peut-être davantage d'être étudié par les baleines.

Un trader utilise le spot Binance pour récolter à contre-courant le marché des prédictions : 1 million de dollars de capital pour empocher 230 000 dollars de profit

Le 18 janvier, le trader Polymarket PredictTrader a révélé une opération de trading digne d'un drame du "Loup de Wall Street" - en récoltant la liquidité des robots de trading, il a gagné 233 000 dollars en quelques heures seulement, et n'a pas encore attiré l'attention massive du marché.

Le moment choisi par ce trader nommé a4385 était extrêmement judicieux - c'était un samedi soir, la liquidité du marché était faible, et le carnet d'ordres spot de Binance était également relativement faible.

Dans le trading "XRP Hausse/Baisse - 17 janvier, 12:45-13:00 EST", il a acheté massivement des jetons "Hausse".

Et son adversaire commercial était les "market makers individuels" relativement courants sur Polymarket - divers robots de trading.(Note d'Odaily Planet Daily : Le market making sur Polymarket est relativement simple, le seuil d'entrée est bas pour les développeurs individuels, les robots de trading sont maintenant très populaires). Dix minutes après le début du trading, le XRP avait chuté d'environ 0,3% par rapport au prix d'ouverture, mais il avait déjà poussé la part "Hausse" à 70%. Les robots de trading ont vu une opportunité de profit, mais ne savaient pas qu'ils tombaient plutôt dans le "piège de prix" préparé à l'avance par ce trader, et lui ont vendu plus de jetons "Hausse".

Finalement, le trader a acheté pour 77 000 dollars de jetons "Hausse" à un prix moyen de 48%.

Et juste 2 minutes avant le règlement de cet événement de pari, un portefeuille sur Binance a acheté pour environ 1 million de dollars de XRP spot, faisant monter son prix d'environ 0,5% ; quelques secondes après le règlement de l'événement de pari, ces 1 million de dollars de spot ont été rapidement vendus.

En d'autres termes, le coût de cet événement de manipulation des prix était d'environ - 0,25% de slippage unilatéral + frais de transaction.

En utilisant un compte Binance VIP niveau 4 (0,06%) (facile à obtenir) et un slippage bidirectionnel de 0,25%, le coût total était d'environ 6 200 dollars, le coût opérationnel réel était probablement encore plus bas. En répétant plusieurs fois la même opération, profitant de la faille de liquidité insuffisante le week-end, le trader a ainsi vidé les fonds de plusieurs portefeuilles de robots.

Certains robots ont été fermés à temps, tandis que d'autres n'ont pas réagi assez rapidement et ont perdu tous leurs fonds -其中包括@aleksandmoney , ce compte a perdu tous ses profits de toute une année (environ 160 000 dollars).

Lien du compte Polymarket de a4385 : https://polymarket.com/profile/0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe

À la fin de l'article, espérons que les traders qui parient pour ou contre sur le marché des prédictions et se battent avec passion pourront distinguer les faits des apparences. Parfois, la vérité n'est pas toujours objective, et les normes et règles déterminées par la plateforme sont établies par l'homme.

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Perguntas relacionadas

QQuel est le principal sujet de l'article concernant les marchés prédictifs ?

AL'article traite de deux cas controversés sur Polymarket : un trader prétendant avoir réalisé un gain de 8300x (de 12 $ à 100 000 $) suspecté d'utiliser des comptes multiples (Sybil), et un autre trader ayant manipulé le prix de XRP pour gagner 233 000 $ en exploitant des robots de trading.

QQuelles accusations ont été portées contre le trader 'ascetic' suite à sa revendication de gains de 8300x ?

ALe trader 'Moses' a accusé 'ascetic' de diriger une 'ferme Sybil' - utilisant de nombreux comptes avec de petits dépôts (10-20 $) pour maximiser les chances qu'un seul compte atteigne un gain important, puis en faisant la promotion pour gagner en notoriété, plutôt que de réaliser un véritable exploit de trading.

QComment le trader 'a4385' a-t-il réussi à gagner 233 000 $ sur Polymarket ?

A'a4385' a acheté massivement des jetons 'Haut' sur un marché de prédiction de 15 minutes sur le cours du XRP, faisant monter leur prix. Peu avant la clôture du marché, il a acheté pour 1 million de dollars de XRP sur Binance, faisant monter le prix suffisamment pour que son pari 'Haut' gagne. Il a ensuite rapidement vendu les XRP, avec un coût net minime, profitant de la faible liquidité du week-end et des robots de trading qui vendaient les jetons 'Haut'.

QQuel a été le rôle des robots de trading (bots) dans l'incident impliquant XRP ?

ALes robots de trading, agissant comme market makers automatiques sur Polymarket, ont vendu des jetons 'Haut' à 'a4385' lorsqu'il a commencé à acheter, pensant profiter de la situation. Cependant, ils sont devenus les contreparties perdantes lorsque 'a4385' a manipulé le prix spot du XRP sur Binance pour garantir que son pari gagne, leur faisant subir des pertes importantes.

QQuel message principal l'article cherche-t-il à transmettre aux traders sur les marchés prédictifs ?

AL'article met en garde les traders contre les apparences trompeuses et les stratagèmes sur les marchés prédictifs. Il les encourage à faire preuve de discernement, à mener leurs propres recherches et à être conscients que les 'miracles' annoncés peuvent être des falsifications ou résulter de l'exploitation de failles, et que les règles du jeu peuvent être manipulées.

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