QCP Capital: ФРС действует вслепую, криптовалюты переживают застой

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-07-28Última atualização em 2025-10-29

Трейдинговая фирма QCP Capital выпустила новый отчет, в котором аналитики рассматривают ключевые события недели — заседание ФРС и текущее состояние рынков на фоне дефицита экономических данных.

ФРС в условиях информационного вакуума

Сегодняшнее заседание Федерального комитета по открытым рыночным операциям (FOMC) не принесет сюрпризов, считают в QCP Capital. Регулятор снизит базовую ставку на 25 базисных пунктов в соответствии с сентябрьскими прогнозами, а председатель Джером Пауэл (Jerome Powell) вряд ли даст новые ориентиры по будущей политике.

Ключевая проблема — отсутствие свежих экономических данных из-за шатдауна правительства США. ФРС фактически действует вслепую, не имея актуальной информации по инфляции и рынку труда. В таких условиях любая корректировка денежно-кредитной политики была бы преждевременной.

Торговые отношения между США и Китаем продолжают создавать неопределенность для макроэкономической картины. В центре противостояния — вопросы национальной безопасности, связанные с редкоземельными металлами, которые являются основой развития искусственного интеллекта и новой технологической гонки XXI века. Позитивным сигналом стала стабилизация отношений между Трампом и Си Цзиньпином (Xi Jinping) перед ожидаемой встречей на этой неделе, что может заложить основу для более конструктивного торгового диалога.

ИИ как двигатель оптимизма

Искусственный интеллект остается главным источником оптимизма на фондовых рынках. Влияние OpenAI продолжает распространяться на различные сектора — от производителей чипов до дата-центров и поставщиков энергии. Инвесторы преследуют подобную уроборосу идею бесконечных капитальных вложений в ИИ.

Сравнения с пузырем доткомов становятся все более очевидными, но история показывает: рынки могут оставаться иррациональными дольше, чем большинство участников способны сохранять платежеспособность.

Криптовалюты в стороне

На криптовалютном рынке энтузиазм остается приглушенным. Обвал 10 октября заставил как розничных, так и институциональных игроков проявлять осторожность, а ликвидность в книгах заказов так и не восстановилась.

Дополнительное давление создают фонды цифровых активов (DAT), многие из которых торгуются со скидкой к чистой стоимости активов. Если дисконт сохранится, управляющие могут быть вынуждены выкупать собственные акции за счет продажи активов, что потенциально добавит еще одну волну предложения на и без того истонченные рынки.

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