Bitcoin’s blue-chip coverage just turned decisively bullish. Within hours of each other on October 2, JPMorgan and Citi outlined upside paths that put six-figure levels squarely on the 12-month horizon, framing the next phase of the cycle around volatility normalization versus gold and sustained institutional demand.
New 12-Month Bitcoin Calls From Citi And JPMorgan
JPMorgan said BTC is now undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis and could climb roughly 40% to about $165,000 to reach parity with the scale of private gold holdings. “The steep rise in the gold price over the past month has made bitcoin more attractive to investors relative to gold, especially as the bitcoin to gold volatility ratio keeps drifting lower to below 2.0,” the bank wrote.
The analyst of the banking giant added: By taking into account this volatility ratio, which implies that BTC currently consumes 1.85 times more risk capital than gold, then mechanically the market cap of bitcoin at $2.3tr currently would have to rise by close to 42% (implying a theoretical bitcoin price of $165k), to match on a vol-adjusted basis the around $6tr of total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins…This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin.”
Citi, in a separate research update dated October 1, introduced new 12-month targets and bookended scenarios for the two largest crypto assets. For BTC, Citi set $181,000 as its base-case 12-month target, with $231,000 in a bull case and $82,000 in a bear case.
For ether, the bank mapped $5,400 (base), $7,300 (bull) and $2,000 (bear). An accompanying near-term update maintained year-end forecasts around $132,000 for BTC and $4,500 for ETH while transitioning coverage to 12-month goals.
“We update our forecasts for Bitcoin and Ether into year-end ($132k & $4.5k) … and move to 12M price targets ($181k & $5.4k),” Citi wrote. The report highlights continued adoption by institutional allocators and financial advisers, while cautioning that a stronger dollar.
“We expect the positive flow backdrop to continue, driven by increased adoption as crypto investments are initiated by institutional investors and financial advisors. The macro backdrop sees offsetting factors, as positive expected 12M equity returns are offset by forecasts of a stronger dollar and, in the case of Bitcoin, a weaker gold price,” Citi writes.
Notably, the bank is significantly more bullish on bitcoin than ether: “We are more positive on Bitcoin compared to Ether, as it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets. There is inherent uncertainty reflected in the bull and bear cases based on transparent assumptions around investor-demand and user activity where the extent of value accrual to ETH adds another layer of uncertainty.”
Market context helps explain why these upgrades landed now. Spot BTC hovered around $120,000 in early European hours on October 3, with year-to-date performance increasingly dominated by ETF accumulation patterns, declining exchange balances, and correlations that have drifted lower versus risk assets.
At press time, BTC traded at $119,833.
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