Первое снижение ставки ФРС в 2025 году может стать последним

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-03-17Última atualização em 2025-09-18

Федеральная резервная система США снизила ключевую ставку на 25 базисных пунктов, доведя ее до диапазона 4-4,25%. Это первое снижение в 2025 году, но председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл (Jerome Powell) дал понять, что дальнейшие сокращения ставок далеко не гарантированы.

Разногласия в комитете по монетарной политике

На пресс-конференции 17 сентября Пауэлл сообщил, что 19 членов Федерального комитета по открытым рыночным операциям (FOMC) разделились во мнениях относительно дополнительных снижений процентных ставок в 2025 году.

«Вы увидите, что у нас есть 10 участников из 19, которые записали два или больше снижения на остаток года, и девять, которые записали меньше этого. Фактически, в значительном числе случаев — больше никаких сокращений», — заявил глава ФРС.

Центробанк пытается сбалансировать свой двойной мандат — максимальную занятость и стабильность цен в необычной ситуации, когда рынок труда ослабевает, а инфляция остается повышенной.

Прогнозы процентных ставок на ближайшие годы

По данным прогноза FOMC из «Обзора экономических прогнозов» (SEP), который влияет на решения по процентным ставкам — ключевая ставка составит:

  • 3,6% к концу 2025 года
  • 3,4% к концу 2026 года
  • 3,1% к концу 2027 года

Пауэлл призвал рассматривать SEP «через призму вероятности», подчеркнув, что существуют разные возможные исходы и их шансы, а не четкая определенность.

Влияние на криптовалютный рынок

Инвесторы в криптовалюты продолжают спекулировать на возможности дополнительных сокращений ставок в 2025 году. Снижение процентных ставок рассматривается как позитивный катализатор для цен рисковых активов, которые выигрывают от расширения кредитования.

Примерно $7,2-7,5 триллиона размещены сейчас в фондах денежного рынка США, доходность которых теперь начнет падать, создавая мощный стимул для капитала вернуться в акции и криптовалюты. 62% трейдеров на платформе Polymarket прогнозируют, что биткоин достигнет $130 000 в 2025 году.

Первое снижение ставки ФРС в новом году создает неопределенность относительно дальнейшей монетарной политики. Разногласия внутри FOMC отражают сложность текущей экономической ситуации, когда регуляторам приходится балансировать между поддержкой экономики и контролем над инфляцией.

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