Эксперты назвали причины перехода биткоина к консолидации после теста $105 000

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-02-13Última atualização em 2025-05-13

Отсутствие активности импульсных трейдеров привело к консолидации цены биткоина.
Индикатор MVRV Z-Score находится существенно ниже пиковых уровней в предыдущие бычьи циклы.
Наблюдается стремительное расширение мировой ликвидности (денежный агрегат M2).

Прорыв психологического уровня $100 000 вызвал интерес «новых» покупателей биткоина, в то время как опытные трейдеры проявляют осторожность. На это обратили внимание в Glassnode.

$BTC Supply Mapping shows sustained strength in new demand. First-Time Buyers RSI has held at 100 all week. But Momentum Buyers remain weak (RSI ~11), and Profit Takers are rising. If fresh inflows slow, lack of follow-through could lead to consolidation: https://t.co/vHqbU4hrPt pic.twitter.com/Ghqynb296Y
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 12, 2025

«Если приток новых средств замедлится, отсутствие последующих действий может привести к консолидации», — предупредили специалисты.

Приведенная ранее иллюстрация отражает сегментацию различных категорий инвесторов на основе их поведенческих моделей.

30-дневный индекс относительной силы «покупателей-пионеров» удерживается на уровне 100 на протяжении всей недели, что говорит о высоком интересе этих игроков.

Спрос импульсных трейдеров в свою очередь остается слабым — соответствующий индикатор находится на уровне 11.

В CoinDesk подчеркнули, что высокая активность «новых» участников намекает на розничный FOMO — преобладание эмоций, а не выверенной оценки ситуации.

Аналитики CryptoQuant констатировали продолжение роста реализованной капитализации, что подтверждает восходящий тренд в биткоине.

Данные: CryptoQuant.

Все больше участников рынка, включая Strategy и другие организации, а также клиентов эмитентов BTC-ETF покупают цифровое золото по более высоким ценам, указали эксперты.

Реализованная капитализация биткоина установила рекорд — признак нового буллрана?

Есть ли потенциал?

В Bitcoin Magazine отметили отсутствие «перегрева» первой криптовалюты на текущих уровнях.

Аналитики сослались на показатель MVRV Z-Score, который сейчас находится на отметке 2,55 — существенно ниже уровней около 7, зафиксированных в пиковые моменты предыдущих бычьих циклов.

Данные: Bitcoin Magazine.

Эксперты также напомнили, что рост глобальной денежной массы исторически сопровождался укреплением цифрового золота. По их словам, последние данные указывают на продолжение стремительного расширения мировой ликвидности.

Данные: Bitcoin Magazine.

Внимание: киты и акулы!

Согласно Santiment, за последние 30 дней кошельки с балансами от 10 до 10 000 BTC, дополнительно приобрели 83 105 BTC. Совокупное предложение на стороне розничных инвесторов, удерживающих менее 0,1 BTC, за этот период сократилось на 387 BTC.

🐳🦈 Bitcoin's key whale & shark tier (holding 10-10K BTC) have now accumulated 83,105 more BTC in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the smallest retail holders (holding <0.1 BTC) have dumped 387 BTC in the same time period.

For both tiers, these are significant movements relative to… pic.twitter.com/Xg5FmF57GQ
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) May 13, 2025

Подобная диспозиция позволила аналитикам сервиса ожидать дальнейший рост цены к $110 000, особенно в контексте снижения неопределенности в торговой сфере между США и Китаем.

Напомним, в Standard Chartered призвали покупать первую криптовалюту и спрогнозировали повышение ее котировок до $120 000 в IV квартале.

Ранее в K33 Research призвали биткоин-инвесторов не бояться мая, сославшись на ожидания реализации массы катализаторов, вызванных инициативами президента США Дональда Трампа.

После $100 000 ориентир $180 000? Такую цель увидели эксперты теханализа

Leituras Relacionadas

LAB’s 23% price crash meets bearish bets – Can bulls defend $13?

LAB's price plummeted over 23% in 24 hours, trading near $13.53 as bearish sentiment dominated. Despite the sharp decline, on-chain data shows ongoing token accumulation, with negative spot exchange netflows indicating holders are moving LAB to private wallets rather than selling. However, this has not offset broader selling pressure. Technically, LAB is testing the lower support of its ascending channel near $13. A break below could target the $12 demand zone. Indicators like the MACD and Parabolic SAR remain bearish. In derivatives markets, a negative funding rate shows sustained short interest, though this creates potential for a short squeeze if buyers return. In summary, LAB faces heavy selling pressure with key channel support at risk. A successful defense of $13 could stabilize the price, while a breakdown would likely target $12 next.

ambcryptoHá 17m

LAB’s 23% price crash meets bearish bets – Can bulls defend $13?

ambcryptoHá 17m

$ANSEM deployer sends 60% of supply to Ansem, who says he has airdropped $7M to holders

The Solana memecoin $ANSEM is facing scrutiny after on-chain analysts revealed the token's deployer transferred approximately 60% of its total supply—650 million tokens—to crypto influencer Ansem. The deployer then sold their remaining tokens for about $11,800, securing an estimated profit of $5,500, despite the token briefly reaching a valuation above $120 million. In response, Ansem stated he has already distributed roughly $7 million worth of $ANSEM through community airdrops and plans further distributions as the token's market cap grows, aiming to expand the holder base. However, analytics platform Bubblemaps identified an early holder cluster that has sold about $500,000 of tokens and still holds around 1% of the supply, indicating continued selling pressure amidst the token's volatile rally and $43 million market capitalization.

ambcryptoHá 1h

$ANSEM deployer sends 60% of supply to Ansem, who says he has airdropped $7M to holders

ambcryptoHá 1h

BTC Market Pulse: Week 27

Bitcoin's price remained weak, testing support around $58K before stabilizing near $60K. The market is in a structural adjustment with persistent net selling in spot markets and capital outflows from US ETFs, indicating a lack of buyer conviction. Derivatives markets show ongoing deleveraging and high demand for downside protection, reflecting a cautious and defensive posture among traders. On-chain metrics present a mixed picture: transfer volume has recovered, suggesting large capital movement, but rising "hot" (short-term) capital and subdued network fees point to underlying caution and potential volatility. Overall, while finding tentative stability, Bitcoin lacks the key drivers for a sustained recovery, requiring a significant return of buyer confidence.

insights.glassnodeHá 1h

insights.glassnodeHá 1h

Strategy approves Bitcoin monetization program under new capital framework

Strategy has approved a board-authorized Bitcoin monetization program under a new Digital Credit Capital Framework, formally outlining for the first time how it may sell portions of its Bitcoin holdings. The framework allows the company to monetize Bitcoin to build up to $1.25 billion in U.S. dollar reserves, fund dividend and interest payments, and repurchase preferred securities and common stock. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor described it as an evolution in capital strategy, enabling Bitcoin to support shareholder value while remaining the primary treasury asset. The announcement accompanied disclosures of a $2.55 billion cash reserve, authorization for $2 billion in buybacks, and an unchanged Bitcoin holding of 847,363 BTC.

ambcryptoHá 2h

Strategy approves Bitcoin monetization program under new capital framework

ambcryptoHá 2h

In Such a Crowded Cross-border Payment Track, Where Does the Next Stop Lie in the Future?

The crowded cross-border payments industry faces a paradox: intense competition above water with financing and narratives, while beneath, price wars and shrinking margins in basic PSP services are common. The path forward lies not in simple "cross-border" solutions but in deep **localization**. Success requires mastering the fragmented and tightening regulations of fiat currencies in each market—the "last mile" of compliance, banking, and settlement. Many Chinese PSPs have succeeded by following Chinese merchants overseas but have not deeply penetrated mainstream local merchant ecosystems abroad. Their strong product capabilities need to be applied to new, complex markets. The future belongs to companies that evolve from single-channel providers to **cross-border capital network operators**. This means moving beyond competing on transaction fees to creating internal networks that optimize capital efficiency through multi-directional matching, netting, and position reuse across countries and currencies. For Web3 and stablecoins, the key is integration, not replacement. Stablecoins offer efficiency gains but cannot bypass the foundational trust, compliance, and legal frameworks of traditional finance. The realistic path is the gradual adoption and "taming" of Web3 technologies by established financial institutions. The ultimate solution is a **dual clearing infrastructure** combining deep local fiat capabilities (local accounts, compliance, banking) with lightweight stablecoin-native capabilities (on-chain settlement, wallets). The biggest opportunity lies not in oversaturated mainstream corridors but in complex, underserved regional corridors (e.g., specific CIS, Middle East-Southeast Asia, or Latin American trade pairs). The winners will be those who build hard-to-replicate, deep capabilities in these areas—acting as the essential "clearing shovels" or infrastructure providers. The future keywords are **more local, more networked, and more stablecoin-native**. High-profit opportunities remain in the non-standardized, difficult-to-replicate deep waters of the industry, requiring genuine on-the-ground presence and long-term patience.

链捕手Há 2h

In Such a Crowded Cross-border Payment Track, Where Does the Next Stop Lie in the Future?