На криптосервисе Polymarket сделали ставки на нового папу римского

RBK-cryptoPublicado em 2025-04-21Última atualização em 2025-04-21

Участники рынка криптовалютных прогнозов оценивают вероятность избрания кандидатов на Святой Престол

После сообщений о смерти папы римского Франциска резко выросли «yes»-ставки в прогнозном рынке Polymarket «Будет ли в 2025 году новый папа римский?» (New Pope in 2025?). Еще утром вероятность смены Папы оценивалась в 35% (35 центов за yes-токен), но после новости курс вырос кратно, до $1 (100%). Объем ставок на рынке превысил $2 млн.

Polymarket — крупнейший децентрализованный рынок прогнозов. Пользователи делают ставки на исход событий, покупая токены «да» или «нет» за криптовалюты.

Цена токена отражает вероятность события: если «да» стоит $0,20, значит шанс оценивается в 20%. Победившие токены приносят $1, проигравшие — обнуляются.

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Согласно правилам Polymarket, ставки в пуле закроются в пользу «да», если нового понтифика официально объявят до конца 2025 года. Источником служит официальное заявление Ватикана или консенсус авторитетных СМИ.

Франциска госпитализировали 14 февраля с инфекцией дыхательных путей, позже у него подтвердилась двусторонняя пневмония. Пул ставок про выбор нового папы открылся на Polymarket через 6 дней, 20 февраля.

Телеграм-канал «РБК-Крипто» — подпишитесь и будьте в курсе самых главных и актуальных новостей о криптовалюте.

Присоединяйтесь к форуму «РБК-Крипто» в Telegram для обсуждения новостей и тенденций криптомира.

25 февраля появилось еще два пула: один с перечнем кандидатов, другой — с названиями континентов, откуда будет выбран новый глава католической церкви.

В пуле «Кто будет следующим папой Римским» поясняется, что после смерти Франциска начался процесс избрания его преемника на папском конклаве. Кардинал Луис Антонио Тагле в настоящее время является фаворитом, среди других сильных кандидатов — госсекретарь Ватикана кардинал Пьетро Паролин, а также кардиналы Петер Эрде и Петер Терксон. Ожидается, что конклав, который предполагает ежедневные раунды голосования до тех пор, пока не будет достигнуто большинство в две трети голосов, продлится от 15 до 20 дней.

В пуле «С какого континента будет следующий папа римский?» явного лидера пока нет. Но кардиналы с глобального Юга, из Африки и Азии, привлекают к себе внимание. Луис Антонио Тагле с Филиппин — серьезный претендент на то, чтобы стать первым папой римским из Азии. Однако, участники пула полагают, что с вероятностью в 56% новый понтифик будет из Европы, по данным на 16:30 мск. Шансы на победу кандидата из Азии оцениваются в 31%.

Доходы криптовалютных казино оценили в $80 млрд. В чем проблема

Криптокомпании нацелились на бизнес банков. Те ответят взаимностью

В США запустят трансграничные платежи в USDC. В них видят конкурента Visa

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