ФРС может начать экстренное смягчение после роста индекса MOVE

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2023-06-08Última atualização em 2025-04-08

Показатель стресса на рынке облигаций растет — ФРС под давлением

Федеральная резервная система может быть вынуждена экстренно перейти к снижению ставок и запуску новых программ ликвидности и поводом для этого станет вовсе не инфляция или рынок труда. Главный индикатор — MOVE Index, отражающий волатильность на рынке облигаций США. Сейчас он на грани зоны кризисного вмешательства.

Читать также: JPMorgan: ФРС может срочно снизить ставки до майского заседания

8 апреля индекс подскочил до 137,3, прибавив более 9% за день. Если он пересечет отметку 140, это может стать спусковым крючком для экстренных действий ФРС — как это уже было в прошлом.

Что такое MOVE Index и почему он важен

MOVE — это аналог индекса VIX, но для рынка казначейских облигаций США. Он показывает, насколько сильно колеблется доходность. Другими словами, насколько нервничает рынок.

Если индекс пробьет 140, это сигнал: рынок трежерис теряет ликвидность, спреды расширяются, а финансовая система приближается к точке перегрева.

В такой ситуации ФРС перестает ужесточать политику и начинает вливать ликвидность — даже если инфляция всё еще высока.

Рост без откатов: рынок в фазе паники

За последние две недели MOVE Index прошел путь от ~91 до 137, не делая пауз. 13 из 14 сессий — зеленые свечи. Такая агрессия на графике — редкость и часто говорит не о смене ожиданий, а о стрессе.

Текущий рывок пробил важные уровни января (108) и марта (115). Впереди — зона 140–145, которая сдерживала рост осенью 2023 года и раньше служила спусковым механизмом для экстренных действий ФРС.

Технически — никакой коррекции, свечи растут без верхних теней. RSI не перегрет, а просто «вытянут». Это значит: покупатели полностью контролируют движение, и потенциал роста сохраняется.

Что произойдет, если MOVE пробьет 140?

Если индекс останется выше 140 хотя бы два дня, рынки могут войти в фазу ускоренного распада. Возможны следующие события:

Разрыв между ценой и NAV у облигационных ETF
Расширение спредов на рынке репо и SOFR
Рост CDS (страховок от дефолта)
Бегство от трежерис

ФРС в такой ситуации, как правило, вмешивается. Это может быть QE-lite, экстренные репо-сделки или прямые вливания ликвидности — под предлогом «поддержания стабильности».

Трамп усиливает давление на рынок — Пауэлл в ловушке

Обвал фондового рынка, вызванный тарифной эскалацией, только подлил масла в огонь. Новые пошлины рискуют создать стагфляцию — рост цен при слабой экономике. А это наихудший сценарий для центробанка.

Джером Пауэлл пока держится. В пятницу он заявил, что «ФРС не торопится» с решением по ставкам. По его словам, влияние тарифов может быть временным, но «не исключено, что оно окажется более устойчивым».

Все внимание на уровень 140

MOVE Index — это не просто цифра на графике. Это барометр доверия к системе. Если отметка 140 будет пробита и удержана, ФРС почти наверняка включится — даже если это будет противоречить риторике борьбы с инфляцией.

Официально пока никаких экстренных мер. Но рынок облигаций уже шепчет, что время почти вышло.

Читать далее: Рауль Пал: цель тарифов Трампа — соглашение с Китаем

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