ФРС обсуждает снижение ставок: спасет ли это крипторынок от падения?

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2024-06-08Última atualização em 2025-04-08

Рынок ждет сигнала — ставки могут стать поворотной точкой

7 апреля внимание рынков переключилось с Белого дома на Федеральную резервную систему. В этот день члены совета директоров ФРС проводят закрытое совещание, на котором обсуждается изменение ключевых ставок.

На фоне массовых ликвидаций и падения Биткоин ниже $80 000, даже намек на смягчение монетарной политики может оказаться катализатором для восстановления.

В повестке значится пересмотр ставок аванса и дисконтирования — это может говорить о подготовке к снижению процентных ставок уже в ближайшее время.

Читать также: ФРС сохраняет осторожность на фоне тарифов Трампа и неопределенности в экономике США

Ставки, доллар и крипта: как это связано

Высокие процентные ставки делают фиксированные доходные инструменты более привлекательными. Инвесторы уходят из рисковых активов, включая акции и криптовалюты, предпочитая стабильный доход.

Снижение ставок, наоборот, расширяет доступ к кредиту, увеличивает ликвидность и подталкивает капиталы обратно в рынок. В прошлом именно такие периоды — как, например, после кризиса 2008 года — сопровождались ростом фондовых и криптоактивов.

Кроме того, снижение ставок может ослабить доллар, сделав криптовалюты привлекательнее в роли хеджирующего актива.

Пауэлл сомневается, но давление растет

Глава ФРС Джером Пауэлл до последнего говорил об осторожности. Он неоднократно подчеркивал, что не видит срочной необходимости снижать ставки. Однако сейчас давление на него усилилось.

Тарифная политика Трампа и резкое охлаждение рыночных настроений ставят ФРС перед выбором. Рынок уже заложил в цены ожидание нескольких снижений ставки в этом году.

Финк не верит в снижение, но рынок с ним не согласен

Гендиректор BlackRock Ларри Финк занимает противоположную позицию. Он заявил, что большинство CEO считают экономику США уже находящейся в рецессии.

По его мнению, ФРС не только не снизит ставку — возможен даже рост. Финк дал понять: вероятность 4–5 снижений в этом году, по его оценке, равна нулю.

Однако инвесторы продолжают ставить на мягкую политику. Даже намек на поворот в сторону снижения может вызвать мощный отскок — как на традиционных рынках, так и в крипте.

Будет ли снижение ставок позитивом для крипторынка?

Прогноз снижения процентной ставки ФРС на 2025 год

В краткосрочной перспективе — да. Более дешевые деньги это топливо для роста активов с высоким риском. Это также означает более высокие оценки, рост интереса со стороны фондов и потенциальный приток институционального капитала.

Для крипторынка это шанс сменить риторику: от распродаж и паники к восстановлению доверия.

Особенно важным это может стать для институциональных инвесторов. При снижении доходностей в традиционных активах они будут искать альтернативы. И в числе этих альтернатив могут оказаться криптовалюты.

Что дальше?

Если ФРС действительно намекнет на смягчение, это может стать поворотной точкой для рынков. Не только для акций, но и для цифровых активов.

Пока рано говорить о развороте, но повестка заседания ФРС может оказаться первым шагом в этом направлении. Инвесторы следят за каждым словом. А рынок — готов к резкому движению.

Читать далее: Рэй Далио: тарифы Трампа — только вершина айсберга глобального кризиса

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