Аналитик оценил вероятность развития рецессии в США в 40%

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2024-06-30Última atualização em 2025-03-30

Рыночный аналитик и основатель Coin Bureau Ник Пакрин поделился мнением относительно текущего состояния американской экономики. Он считает, что с вероятностью в 40% США столкнутся с полномасштабной рецессией уже в текущем году. Ключевой причиной развития такого тренда станет макроэкономическая неопределенность в совокупности с потенциально затяжной торговой войной.

«Представители администрации Дональда Трампа не исключают рецессию полностью. Безусловно, такой сценарий возможен, но для его реализации необходимы соответствующие условия», — подчеркнул специалист. Пакрин не считает, что глава США намерено пытается спровоцировать рецессию. Однако ряд действий, включая сокращение числа федеральных рабочих мест и снижение расходов для сбалансирования бюджета, способствуют развитию этого явления.

Макроэкономическая неопределенность отразилась и на американском рынке. Недавно произошла резкая просадка индекса доллара (DXY), поскольку участники торгов начали более активно переводить капитал на европейские биржи. В свою очередь торговое противостояние США с рядом стран спровоцировало шок криптвалютного сегмента. Это привело к масштабному падению многих цифровых монет. Если в конце января биткоин торговался вблизи уровня $109 тыс., то сейчас он расположился вблизи отметки $84 000.

Текущую ситуацию прокомментировал и представитель компании Nansen Николай Зондергаард. По его мнению, рынок криптовалют будет испытывать существенное давление вплоть до конца апреля 2025 года.

Аналитик также отметил, что если страны смогут оперативно договориться с администрацией США об отмене высоких пошлин, то глобальный рынок быстро восстановится. Однако пока о реализации такого сценария речи не идет.

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