Research: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Has Dragged On for 287 Days
Research indicates that the capitulation phase for Bitcoin miners has extended for 287 consecutive days, marking one of the longest periods of declining network hash rate. This has led to a 19.9% drop in mining difficulty from its peak. Typically, miner stocks are highly correlated with Bitcoin's price, but recently they have diverged. While Bitcoin lost about 46% of its value over the past year, stocks of major public mining companies like Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and HIVE Digital saw significant gains. Analysts attribute this to the industry's pivot towards providing computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence, shifting investor focus away from pure Bitcoin exposure.
Miners' revenue is under pressure. The daily block reward revenue has hit a historic low, partly due to the hash rate decline delaying block times. The Puell Multiple indicator shows daily revenues around $30 million, below the yearly average of ~$40 million. Transaction fees remain minimal, contributing only about $200,000 daily. Currently, fees collected over 28 days do not cover the reward for a single block, meaning fees fund only about ten minutes of the network's daily operation. This is a stark contrast to past cycles where fee revenue occasionally spiked to significant levels. The report concludes that the current mining downturn lacks a clear, singular cause like past events, such as China's mining ban.
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