В CryptoQuant назвали пять признаков завершения ралли биткоина

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2021-02-20Última atualização em 2024-11-20

Есть пять ключевых индикаторов, которые предупреждают о формировании локальной вершины, сейчас медвежий сигнал подает только один из них. Об этом сообщили в CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin Hits ATH: Is It Time to Sell or Hold?

MVRV > 3.7 has historically marked market tops.

Explore these 4 additional key metrics to better understand market timing and make more informed decisions.

Details below 👇 pic.twitter.com/ewavOhofBR

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2024

Одной из таких метрик выступает коэффициент MVRV. Критическим является значение 3,7, но в настоящее время оно составляет 2,67. В феврале 2021 года во время ралли индикатор подскочил к 7, когда биткоин установил ATH на подступах к $60 000.

Следующая метрика — криптовалютный индекс страха и жадности. Согласно CryptoQuant, когда он достигает отметки 80 из 100 в сочетании с другими показателями, биткоин может оказаться вблизи локальной вершины.

Fear & Greed Index above 80

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a popular tool for gauging market sentiment, particularly greed.

Generally, when the index exceeds a value of 80, caution is advised.

While the market can continue to rise during times of high greed, this often… pic.twitter.com/PhOOe6ThkN

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2024

С 12 ноября индекс превысил отметку 80, а 17 и 19 ноября достиг 90 — максимального значения с февраля 2021 года.

Третий сигнал — реализованный капитал — демонстрирует, сколько новых денег поступает на рынок.

Insufficient New Money Flow

For prices to stay strong, new money must flow into the market, without enough inflow, price pressure increases.

Use Realized Cap Growth (365D) to monitor this trend effectively. pic.twitter.com/tz6pF0eDg9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2024

В настоящее время он говорит о сохранении сравнительно высоких поступлений, что подтверждает нахождение биткоина в бычьей фазе.

Следующим индикатором выступает Coin Days Destroyed. Он показывает активность продаж монет ходлерами.

Long-Term Holders Are Selling

Market tops often occur when long-held Bitcoin is reactivated.

Watch for Coin Days Destroyed spiking above 15–20 million as a key signal. pic.twitter.com/WIlNsYuVy1

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2024

Если метрика поднимается выше 15–20 млн, это может быть краткосрочным медвежьим сигналом для цены, указали эксперты. В настоящее время CDD соответствует 15,1 млн.

Последний из рассматриваемых аналитиками индикаторов — Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), который отслеживает движение биткоинов на биржи и с бирж деривативов. Согласно CryptoQuant, IFP по-прежнему демонстрирует бычью структуру.

Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) turns bearish

This flow data reflects market sentiment, with an increase (or decrease) in Bitcoin moving to (or from) derivative exchanges often correlating with bull (or bear) runs. pic.twitter.com/85YAtH9cXB

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2024

В настоящее время метрика находится в районе 730 000 и движется по восходящему тренду. В предыдущие буллраны IFP достигал 1 млн и опускался до 200 000 во время медвежьего рынка в конце 2023 года.

Вечером 19 ноября котировки первой криптовалюты переписали исторический максимум на уровнях выше $93 900. Триггером мог стать ажиотаж вокруг стартовавших торгов опционами на спотовый биткоин-ETF от BlackRock.

Ранее Bernstein назвали катализаторы роста курса цифрового золота к $200 000 в 2025 году.

Напомним, в Glassnode отметили, что цена первой криптовалюты не достигла уровней для фиксации прибыли ходлерами.

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