市场状态分析：我们正处于牛市的哪个阶段？

链捕手Publicado em 2024-09-27Última atualização em 2024-09-27

原标题：《Where are we in the cycle?》

作者：The DeFi Investor

编译：深潮TechFlow

 

在今天的文章中我们将讨论：

  • 我们目前处于周期的哪个阶段？

  • 链上数据分析

我们在周期的哪个阶段？

如果你看过我最近的 X 帖子，你已经知道我对第四季度的加密市场持乐观态度。

但在本期中，我将详细说明我认为我们在这个加密周期中的确切位置，并解释我为何对近期的未来保持乐观。

总结：有很多理由让人感到兴奋。

让我们先从一些我认为相关的加密图表开始。

BTC 周期 ROI（Cycle ROI）正好处于这个周期阶段通常的位置。

来源： @intocryptoverse

这个市场周期的 BTC 表现与 2016 年和 2020 年的牛市非常相似。

金融市场往往是周期性的，因为人性是恒定的。这就是为什么 BTC 已经达到顶峰的可能性似乎不大。

过去的两个牛市有两个共同点：

  • 真正的 BTC 上涨趋势大约在比特币减半（Bitcoin Halving）后 170-180 天开始

  • BTC 周期顶部大约在比特币减半后 480 天达到

cryptoquant.com

自 2024 年比特币减半（BTC Halving）事件以来，仅仅过去了 160 天。

根据过去的情况，我们现在很可能距离 BTC 恢复上涨趋势的时刻只有几周。

显然，这假设历史会重演，但我看不出这次会有什么重大原因导致情况有所不同。

BTC 交易所储备（Exchange Reserve）以极快的速度下降。

自 2024 年 1 月以来，已有超过 50 万 BTC 被提取出交易所。

当大户从交易所提取他们的 Token 时，通常意味着他们计划将其持有一段时间，而不是在近期出售。

上面的图表似乎显示大户在过去几个月中大量积累了 BTC。

如果这种积累继续下去，供应紧缩将是不可避免的。

比特币季节（Bitcoin Season）历史上是每个新周期的第一阶段。

上面图片中的信息图是在多年前制作的，但很好地总结了 2016 年和 2020 年周期所发生的事情。

  1. 首先，BTC 开始上涨，其市场主导地位也随之提升。

  2. 然后，注意力开始转向大盘币（如 ETH、SOL 等）。

  3. 最后，几乎每个山寨币都开始上涨，无论其市值或基本面如何都开始上涨。

最近，BTC 的市场主导地位达到了新的多年高点。

这可能表明我们现在仍处于第一阶段。历史上，山寨季（altseason）通常在 BTC 市场主导地位开始下降后才会开始。我认为我们正接近第二阶段。

上述所有图表和之前牛市周期的历史数据让我认为 BTC 很可能会在第四季度创下新的历史高点。

那么，有没有出错的可能呢？

让我们简要讨论一下熊市的可能性。

目前仍然存在许多宏观不确定性（macro uncertainty）。

如果全球经济衰退开始，数字货币将受到很大影响。

然而，我认为近期发生衰退的可能性不大，原因是 2024 年是美国的选举年。

为了让卡马拉·哈里斯有机会赢得美国总统大选，民主党将竭尽所能地推迟选举。

虽然我认为美国经济衰退（recession）可能在未来 3-4 年的某个时候开始，但我认为它在 2024 年发生的可能性非常小。

因此，我对第四季度的加密货币持乐观态度。

希望我们的信念和耐心很快会得到回报。

链上动态

Sui 的总锁仓价值（Total Value Locked，TVL）首次超过了 Polygon。

Sui 是增长速度最快的区块链之一，它是一种 L1 区块链（Layer 1 blockchain），利用并行交易执行来实现高交易吞吐量。

最近在大多数指标上激增的原因似乎有两个关键因素：其非常强大的社区和在 X 上日益增长的流行度。

除此之外，它的团队还与多家 Web2 和 Web3 巨头达成了一些重要合作，包括 Circle 和 TikTok 的母公司。

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