衰退预期减弱 降息预期增强刺激行情反弹 TON生态是否进入了可抄底的位置?

金色财经Publicado em 2024-08-30Última atualização em 2024-08-30

因为这种多空双爆的行情,已经让大家产生极度的厌恶和绝望,要不就是干脆买现货,不管怎么样都不会爆仓,回调也让行情再次回到了之前的震荡区间,短线可以压缩到57780-61800美金小区间内,走出来这个区间在考虑方向。

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短线清算地图来说,已经是多空都不活跃的一个状态,这不是好事,当然也未来出大行情必不可少的一个阶段,市场本身流动性不足,接下来如此的话活跃性更低,造成的结果就是频繁插针和画门行情。

今天的数据从初请来说影响不大,跟市场预期差不多,主要在于GDP的修正值,这个数据确实有点匪夷所思,感觉像美国这边有意为之,为降息做准备。

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这个数据意思很明确,就是我美国没有衰退,经济韧性依然很强,就是这个GDP数据修正,估计市场上大部分人没有预料到,特别像为了降息之前安抚市场,你看我的GDP数据依然强劲,不用担心衰退,降息也是为了迎合市场,并不是为了预防经济衰退。

现在最大的问题是市场认可这个修正数据吧,市场的博弈点在衰退预期和降息预期,刚才数据公布以后是利空降息预期的,但是金融市场没有跌,说明降息预期已经随着美联储讲话消化了。

反而是衰退预期炒作依然在,这个数据弱化了衰退,那未来衰退可以平稳落地,又迎来降息,这么看反而成了双重利好,但是这个修正的GDP数据又会给三季度的GDP初值带来压力了,如果不及这个修正值,那市场会不会再次拿衰退说事。

所以这个修正数据是一个双刃剑,对未来的行情影响可能在不久的将来会再次被提起,10月份就会公布GDP初值,而9月消息面太多,现在行情插针和画门是常态。

TON生态是否进入了可抄底的位置?

看几个方面

本次事件后续影响有多大?

目前当事人已经交了保释金出来了,但是不能出法国,我个人看,掀不起什么大波,除非多方势力就想把他狠干一把,不然不久就不了了之了

大盘处于什么阶段?

还是拉锯,看图可以明显发现60000以下经常摸到,但比较硬,可能还在等个确定的大型消息落地吧,我个人非常不喜欢宏观,我给用户的建议统统是现在定投没毛病,破6就TM加投,短线客反弹就抽本,陪市场耗,积累筹码,怂NM的怂

TON还有没有后劲儿?

不好说,我的观点依然是只玩TON比较好,目前TON生态的明星币,都是一次性到位上BN,利好全部出尽,后续乏力,TON生态属于币圈中比较另类的存在了,目前除了简单游戏币,别的干啥啥不行,可见依然还要靠简单游戏币继续吸引注意力,路子太窄,所有想把WEB2的东西在TON里做出花来的WEB3项目,我认为没一个能行,谁简单,谁有话题性,谁才是赢家

总之,TON可以抄,目前理解为,略FUD,低于大盘水平,合理位置应该在6以上,生态中别的不抄

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