Снова $50 000 за один биткоин? Анализ ситуации и прогнозы экспертов

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2021-04-19Última atualização em 2024-08-19

На этой неделе биткоин демонстрирует слабую динамику, что заставляет трейдеров готовиться к возможному повторному тестированию уровней поддержки. После многообещающих выходных, которые закончились разочаровывающе, первая криптовалюта не вдохновляет участников рынка, уставших от движений в узком диапазоне.

Ключевые факторы влияния

В центре внимания на этой неделе оказалась Федеральная резервная система США с ее ежегодным симпозиумом в Джексон-Хоул. Трейдеры с нетерпением ждут выступления главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла (Jerome Powell) 23 августа, надеясь получить четкий сигнал относительно возможного снижения процентных ставок в сентябре.

Это может привести к повышенной волатильности в конце недели. Тем временем растут опасения, что биткоин может потянуть весь крипторынок вниз. Некоторые аналитики предупреждают о возможном падении до $50 000, хотя майнеры пока сохраняют спокойствие.

Технический анализ

На момент написания статьи биткоин торгуется около $58 314. Популярный трейдер Roman считает, что цена может опуститься до уровня поддержки около $55 000. Он отметил, что индикатор волатильности Bollinger Bands должен дать предварительный сигнал о готовности рынка к прорыву в определенном направлении.

1-дневный график BTC/USDT. Аналитика: Roman

Аналитик CrypNuevo видит потенциальную «возможность для покупки» ближе к $50 000. Он предупреждает о возможном ложном прорыве вверх перед снижением цены в ближайшие дни:

  • $53 600 и $51 500 — потенциальные уровни, до которых может опуститься цена, чтобы заполнить фитили на недельном и дневном графиках
  • Возможен ложный прорыв выше текущего диапазона в начале недели с последующим падением до $56 000
4-часовой график BTC/USDT. Аналитика: CrypNuevo

Настроения на рынке

Согласно данным индекса «Страха и жадности», настроения инвесторов находятся всего в трех пунктах от «крайнего страха», составляя 28 из 100.

Аналитик CryptoQuant Axel Adler Jr. отмечает, что цена биткоина торгуется ниже 200-дневной скользящей средней, что формально указывает на медвежьи настроения. Он также предупреждает о росте использования кредитного плеча на ведущих биржах, что может усилить волатильность.

Позиции майнеров

Несмотря на недавнее значительное снижение цены, майнеры пока не спешат продавать свои запасы биткоинов. По данным CryptoQuant, резервы BTC в известных кошельках майнеров начали стабилизироваться.

«Майнеры продавали свои биткоины через внебиржевые сделки и биржи до недавнего времени, но с конца июля не демонстрируют признаков продаж», — отмечает аналитик Crypto Dan.

Рыночная доминация биткоина

Доля биткоина в общей капитализации крипторынка достигла локального пика и начинает снижаться. Трейдеры предполагают, что это может привести к росту альткоинов в четвертом квартале.

Популярный трейдер Mikybull Crypto прогнозирует «большое падение» индекса доминирования биткоина, что должно спровоцировать ренессанс альткоинов.

1-недельный график доминирования биткоина. Аналитика: Mikybull Crypto

Глава и основатель MN Trading Михаэль ван де Поппе (Michaël van de Poppe) считает, что в результате этого закончится «медвежий рынок» альткоинов.

Текущая ситуация на крипторынке остается неопределенной. Инвесторы внимательно следят за макроэкономическими факторами и техническими индикаторами, пытаясь определить дальнейшее направление движения цены биткоина. Волатильность может усилиться после выступления главы ФРС на симпозиуме в Джексон-Хоул.

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