美联储改革提案,货币政策“2025计划”说了些什么?

深潮Publicado em 2024-07-19Última atualização em 2024-07-19

在自由银行制度下,利率和货币供应都不受政府控制,美联储实际上被废除了。

作者:尼古拉斯·贾辛斯基(Nicholas Jasinski)

一份广泛流传的下届总统政府的保守政策纲领将对美联储的授权和货币政策工具实施构成重大限制。

保守派智库传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)提出的所谓“2025计划”(Project 2025)对美联储的主要建议包括:集中精力控制通胀、缩减资产负债表规模,以及结束其最后贷款人的职能。进一步的提议将使美国恢复金本位制或彻底废除美联储。

2025计划广泛的政策纲领在一本大约900页的书中阐述,名为《授权领导:保守派的承诺》。这本书由保罗·丹斯(Paul Dans)和史蒂文·格罗夫斯(Steven Groves)编辑(两人都曾在唐纳德·特朗普政府任职),并包括了大约400名保守派人士的贡献,他们为白宫和每个联邦机构提供了详细的建议。

关于美联储的章节严厉批评了美联储自1913年由国会创建以来对美国货币供应和金融监管行为的"无能"管理。报告指出,多年来美联储的职责范围不断扩大,并认为美联储面临着在选举前刺激经济增长和为政府预算赤字融资的政治压力。

该书写道:“政府控制货币政策的一个核心问题是它面临着两种不可避免的政治压力:印钞补贴政府赤字的压力,和印钞人为刺激经济直至下次选举的压力。这两种压力永远存在于自私自利的政客手中,所以唯一永久的补救办法就是把货币方向盘从美联储手中拿走,交还给人民。”

2025计划对美联储提出了几项广泛的建议。首先是取消双重授权——目前是确保物价稳定和充分就业。该书认为,这以避免经济衰退的名义造成了对通胀的破坏性偏见。

书中写道:“支持这种更广泛授权的人声称,货币政策是帮助经济避免或摆脱衰退所必需的。这种妥协主义的观点是错误的。事实上,同样的宽松货币政策也会导致一系列失败进而引发经济衰退。换句话说,双重授权可能会在不经意间加剧衰退,而不是修复衰退。”

相反,书中认为,美联储应该只专注于抑制通胀。改变双重授权需要国会通过法案。最近几周,美联储官员开始越来越强调双重授权的劳动力问题方面。自2022年以来,通货膨胀率已大幅放缓,尽管仍高于美联储2%的年度目标,而劳动力市场已开始从过热的水平降温。

2025计划建议逐步缩减美联储资产负债表的资产规模(目前超过7万亿美元),并将未来的资产购买限制在美国国债上。2007-08年金融危机后,美联储实施了多轮量化宽松政策,资产负债表急剧膨胀。在疫情期间,美联储试图通过大规模购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券向美国银行体系注入流动性,资产负债表再次膨胀。2022年6月,美联储开始逐步缩减资产负债表,这一过程被称为量化紧缩(QT)。

2025计划的作者认为,量化宽松以牺牲经济中的其他借贷为代价推高了联邦预算赤字,而购买抵押贷款支持证券则通过压低抵押贷款利率推高了房价和租金。

此外,该书还建议取消央行的最后贷款人职能。在金融压力极大时期,美联储可以,也确实,以防止银行挤兑和危机蔓延至金融体系其他领域的名义向银行和其他金融机构提供流动性。

2025计划认为,这会引发道德风险和过度投机,以及造成“大而不能倒”的机构。

书中写道:“这相当于一项长期救助计划,并鼓励银行和非银行金融机构从事不计后果的贷款,甚至投机。这不仅加剧了经济周期波动,也可能导致1992年和2008年那样需要救助的金融危机。”

书中提出的其他更广泛但政治上不太可行的建议包括转向自由银行制度,恢复金本位制,以及采取更公式化或基于规则的货币政策制定方法。

书中写道:“在自由银行制度下,利率和货币供应都不受政府控制,美联储实际上被废除了,财政部在很大程度上只负责处理政府的资金。”

由于担心联邦政府可能会对金融交易进行监控,2025计划还反对创建美联储多年来一直在研究的央行数字货币。

特朗普本周接受共和党提名,并有望在11月重新入主白宫。他最近试图与该计划保持距离,但该计划是由多位前特朗普政府官员和顾问准备的。

关于美联储的章节主要由经济学家保罗·温弗里(Paul Winfree)撰写,他目前领导着华盛顿特区的经济政策创新中心,曾分别于2015-2016年和2018-2022年两次担任传统基金会经济政策研究主任。在此期间,温弗里在特朗普的白宫担任过多个职位,从2016年总统过渡团队开始,然后担任总统国内政策副助理、国内政策委员会副主任和预算政策主任。

关于美联储的这一章节的其他贡献者包括经济学家亚历山大·索尔特(Alexander Salter)、彼得·圣翁吉(Peter St Onge)和朱迪·谢尔顿(Judy Shelton),特朗普在2019年提名他们进入美联储理事会,但没有得到参议院的批准。

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