Bitcoin’s cycle is ‘evolving, but not broken’ – Inside 21Shares’ analysis
21Shares' latest "State of Crypto" report argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle is "evolving, but not broken." Despite many analysts believing the cycle ended in early 2026, Bitcoin's price action continues to mirror historical post-halving patterns. After peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, BTC entered a correction, but the current ~50% drawdown is less severe than the 80-90% declines of past bear markets. Crucially, the price has remained above its aggregate cost basis of $54,000, avoiding the outright capitulation typical of cycle bottoms.
The report notes that stronger fundamentals do not make Bitcoin immune to cycles, as sentiment is still tied to macroeconomic conditions. It projects a potential recovery toward $100,000 by end-2026. However, ETF markets show stress with recent outflows, and the LTH/STH SOPR ratio falling to ~0.7 indicates selling pressure is primarily from short-term holders. Additionally, negative gamma exposure for market makers below $68,000-$70,000 suggests elevated volatility ahead. In summary, while the cycle persists, its characteristics, including shallower declines and persistent institutional backing, are changing.
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