20 Wall Street Banks Update Their Fed Rate Forecasts! Here's the New List

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2026-09-12Última atualização em 2026-09-12

Resumo

Wall Street's leading banks have largely revised their U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate forecasts following higher-than-expected August inflation data. Out of 20 institutions surveyed, 16 now predict the Fed will initiate a rate hike in September. The consensus centers on a 50-basis-point tightening cycle through 2026, with several major banks, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, holding this view. However, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC forecast a more aggressive 75-basis-point total increase by 2026. In contrast, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan anticipate a more modest 25-basis-point hike this year. A minority, including HSBC and Morgan Stanley, expect rates to remain on hold through 2026, while Jefferies and Oxford Economics project the first policy move to be a rate cut, though not until late 2024 or 2027, respectively.

The fact that U.S. inflation data for August came in slightly higher than expectations quickly reinforced hopes for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting.

According to assessments, almost all Fed watchers who previously did not expect a September rate hike have changed their forecasts following the latest inflation data release. Out of the 20 institutions on the list, 16 forecast that the Fed's next move will be a rate hike in September, while only a few maintain scenarios of unchanged rates or cuts in 2027.

Bank of America expects the Fed to raise interest rates in September and to increase them by a total of 75 basis points throughout 2026. However, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, MPA Macro, MUFG, Nomura, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo forecast the first hike in September and a total tightening of 50 basis points within the year.

Deutsche Bank and RBC are also among the institutions expecting a rate hike in September, with both forecasting a total increase of 75 basis points by 2026. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, on the other hand, believe the Fed will raise rates in September but expect the total annual increase to be limited to 25 basis points.

Here are the current Fed forecasts from these institutions:

  • Bank of America: Rate hike in September; total increase of 75 basis points by 2026.
  • Barclays: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • BNP Paribas: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Citigroup: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Deutsche Bank: Rate hike in September; total increase of 75 basis points.
  • Goldman Sachs: Rate hike of 25 basis points in September.
  • HSBC: Expects rates to remain stable for an indefinite period; forecasts no change in 2026.
  • Jefferies: Expects the first move to be a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
  • JPMorgan: Rate hike in September; total increase of 25 basis points.
  • Morgan Stanley: Expects the first rate cut in 2027; forecasts no change in 2026.
  • MPA Macro: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • MUFG: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Nomura: Expects a 50 basis point rate hike in September.
  • Oxford Economics: Expects the first rate cut in 2027; forecasts no change in 2026.
  • Piper Sandler: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • RBC: Rate hike in September; total increase of 75 basis points.
  • Societe Generale: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • TD Securities: Rate hike of 50 basis points in September.
  • UBS: Expects a 50 basis point rate hike in September.
  • Wells Fargo: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.

*This is not investment advice.

end-content

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat was the primary factor that changed most analysts' expectations for a Fed rate hike in September?

AThe key factor was the August U.S. inflation data, which came in slightly hotter than expected, quickly solidifying expectations for a rate hike.

QAccording to the article, how many of the 20 Wall Street institutions in the list now forecast a Fed rate hike in September?

AAccording to the article, 16 of the 20 institutions forecast that the next Fed move will be a rate hike in September.

QWhich banks forecast the most aggressive total rate hike of 75 basis points by 2026?

ABank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC forecast a total rate hike of 75 basis points by 2026.

QWhich institutions hold the most dovish view, expecting no change in rates for 2026 and the first cut in 2027?

AMorgan Stanley and Oxford Economics hold this view, expecting the first rate cut in 2027 and forecasting no change in 2026. HSBC also expects rates to remain stable for an indefinite period.

QWhat is the rate hike forecast for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan?

AGoldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect a Fed rate hike in September, but they forecast a limited total increase of only 25 basis points for the year.

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