SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-02-16Última atualização em 2024-02-16

Resumo

市场对BTC的看涨情绪在来到52000美元关口附近后快速衰弱,过去24小时价格维持小幅震荡(-0.08%),使得包括ETH在内的期权隐含波动率曲面走陡,前端下跌1.5-2.5%Vol左右。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

昨日(15 FEB)美国 1 月零售销售月率录得-0.8% ,低于预期的-0.1% ,数据公布后十年期美债收益率一度下破 4.2% ,但随后有所回升,现报 4.267% ,对利率政策更敏感的两年期收益率重回 4.6% 上方,报 4.607% 。纳指/标普/道指分别收涨 0.3% /0.58% /0.91% 。

尽管此前芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在 1 月份大超预期的 CPI 数值出来后安抚了市场的情绪,但据金十报道,昨日亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在谈话中表示,由于美国劳动力市场和经济仍然强劲,美联储可能并不急于降息,并警告说,目前尚不清楚通胀是否会向美联储 2% 的目标迈进,他的预期是,通胀率将继续下降,但要比市场押注暗示的速度慢。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面,市场对 BTC 的看涨情绪在来到 52000 美元关口附近后快速衰弱,过去 24 小时价格维持小幅震荡(-0.08% ),使得包括 ETH 在内的期权隐含波动率曲面走陡,前端下跌 1.5-2.5% Vol 左右,从交易分布能观察到 23 FEB 52000 vs 48000 Put Spread 的博弈,卖压略胜一筹,同时远端仍有以 29 MAR 24 65000 vs 75000 Call Spread 为代表的大宗看涨策略建仓(720 BTC per leg)。另一方面,ETH 的上行势能还在延续,日内收涨至 2819.22 (+ 1.53% ), 23 FEB 2300/2500 和 1 MAR 2650 附近出现大量平仓看涨实值期权的止损单。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit (截至 15 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 短期出现大量实值期权止损单

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

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