Pantera Capital：对2024年加密市场的6大预测

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2023-12-21Última atualização em 2023-12-21

Resumo

比特币的主导地位使其成为2024年最值得关注的生态系统之一。

原文标题：《 6 Predictions for Crypto in 2024: Pantera's Paul Veradittakit》

原文作者：Paul Veradittakit

原文来源：coindesk

原文编译：Kate, 火星财经

过去的一年证明了区块链领域有能力从最恶劣的外部条件中恢复过来。从今年年初的「加密寒冬」开始，加密空间的整体市值增长了 90% ，达到 1.69 万亿美元，比特币从 2023 年 1 月的年度低点 1.6 万美元增长到 12 月的 4 万多美元，增长了一倍多。

这篇文章是 CoinDesk「加密 2024 」预测包的一部分。

在 2023 年，我们继续感受到 2022 年重大崩溃浪潮的一些余震，最引人注目的是 11 月的 FTX 审判和判决以及币安认罪协议，以及 3 月份在银行业危机期间 USDC 稳定币的短暂脱钩。与此同时，我们继续看到该领域的突破，包括 3 月份以太坊的 Shapella 升级到完整的权益证明网络， 7 月份裁定 XRP(主要) 不是证券，PayPal 的 PYUSD 稳定币的推出以及 8 月份 Grayscale 在比特币现货 ETF 方面战胜美国证券交易委员会，以及新颖的代币化社交体验的先驱，例如 Friend.tech 的崛起。

因此，我们对未来的道路充满乐观，进入 2024 年。以下是我对 2024 年加密行业的主要预测：

1. 比特币的复苏和「DeFi Summer 2.0 」

2023 年，比特币卷土重来，比特币的主导地位 (比特币占加密货币市值的比例) 从 1 月份的 38% 上升到 12 月份的 50% 左右，使其成为 2024 年最值得关注的生态系统之一。至少有三个主要催化剂推动其在明年的复兴：( 1) 2024 年 4 月第四次比特币减半，( 2) 预计机构投资者将批准几只比特币现货 ETF，以及 ( 3) 可编程功能的增加，包括基础协议 (如 Ordinals)，以及第 2 层和其他可扩展层 (如 Stacks 和 Rootstock)。

在基础设施层面，我们相信我们将看到比特币 L2s 和其他可扩展性层的激增，以支持智能合约。比特币生态系统应该围绕一到两种图灵完备的智能合约语言进行整合，其中最有力的竞争者包括 Rust、Solidity 或比特币原生语言 Clarity 的扩展。这种语言将成为比特币开发的「标准」，类似于 Solidity 被认为是以太坊开发的「标准」。

我们还看到了比特币可能出现的「DeFi 夏季 2.0 」的基本面。Wrapped BTC (WBTC) 目前的市值和总锁定价值 (TVL) 约为 60 亿美元，因此 DeFi 对比特币的需求显然是巨大的。今天，以太坊的市值为 2730 亿美元，其中约 10% 是 TVL( 280 亿美元)。随着比特币 DeFi 基础设施的成熟，我们可能会看到比特币 DeFi 总锁定价值 (TVL) 从目前的 3 亿美元 (市值的 0.05% ) 上升到比特币市值的 1-2% (按当前价格计算约为 100 - 150 亿美元)。在这个过程中，许多以太坊的 DeFi 实践可能会被转移并「归化」到比特币上，例如最近兴起的 BRC-20 铭文和诸如巴比伦 L2 中的质押等想法。

比特币 NFT，比如那些刻在序数上的，可能在 2024 年也会越来越受欢迎。由于比特币具有更高的文化认可度和 Meme 价值，web2 品牌 (如奢侈品零售商) 可能会选择在比特币上发布 NFT，类似于 tiffany 与 Cryptopunks 合作在 2022 年发布「NFTFi」吊坠系列。

2. 为新的消费者用例代币化的社交体验

Web2 已经从社交转向金融，而 Web3 正在从金融转向社交。2023 年 8 月，friend.tech 在 Base L2 上开创了一种新的代币化社交体验形式，用户可以买卖他人 X (Twitter) 的分割「股份」。在 10 月份达到了 3 万 ETH TVL(当时约为 5000 万美元) 的峰值，并激发了几个「山寨项目」，比如 post.tech。看来那个 friend.tech 通过将 Twitter 的个人资料金融化，已经成功地为 SocialFi 领域开创了一种新的代币经济学模式。

在即将到来的一年里，我们期待在社交领域进行更多的实验，代币化 (无论是可替代的还是不可替代的代币) 在重塑社交体验方面发挥着关键作用。可替代代币更有可能是积分和忠诚度系统的新形式，而不可替代代币 (NFT) 更有可能作为个人资料和社会资源 (如交易卡)。两者都可以在链上交易，并参与 DeFi 生态系统。

Lens 和 Farcaster 是两个领先的 web3 原生应用程序，将 DeFi 与社交网络集成在一起。像 Blackbird 这样的项目还将推广特定垂直行业 (如餐馆) 忠诚度计划的代币积分系统，使用稳定币支付和代币回扣的组合来重塑消费者体验，在功能上提供信用卡的链上替代方案。

3. 增加 TradFi-DeFi「桥」，如稳定币和镜像资产

2023 年，加密领域发生了许多法律诉讼，包括该行业的几次高调胜利，例如 XRP 裁决和灰度 ETF 诉讼的胜利，以及 Binance 和 FTX 的金融欺诈得到了伸张。与此同时，机构对比特币和以太坊的兴趣和潜在 ETF 批准也大幅增加。

到 2024 年，我们预计机构采用率将大幅增加，他们不仅寻求 ETF，还寻求代币化的现实世界资产 (RWA) 和 TradFi 金融产品。换句话说，TradFi 资产将在 DeFi 中「镜像」，而加密资产将在 TradFi 市场中增加曝光率，从而创建 TradFi-DeFi「桥梁」，使这两个世界更紧密地联系在一起，为投资者增加流动性和多样化。

稳定币将成为 TradFi 和 DeFi 世界之间最重要的纽带之一，USDC 和 PYUSD 等稳定币将被更广泛地接受为投资组合选择和支付工具。随着 Circle 考虑在 2024 年进行 IPO，我们也可能会看到非美元稳定币的发行和使用增加，尤其是欧元支持的稳定币，如 Circle 的 EURC，以及英镑、新加坡元和日元稳定币。其中一些稳定币可能是由国家支持的参与者推出的。这也可能导致链上法币外汇市场的增长。代币化的国债已经通过 Ondo 等平台获得了 8 亿美元的代币化。

4. 模块化区块链和零知识证明的融合

在过去的一年里，模块化区块链和 zkp 的概念都已经非常成熟，比如最近推出的 Celestia 主网，Espresso 的 Arbitrum 集成，RiscZero 的开源 Zeth 证明器，以及 Succinct 推出的 ZK 市场。一个有趣的趋势是这两种叙述是如何融合在一起的，ZK 领域的公司通过专注于特定的垂直领域 (如协处理器、隐私层、证明市场和 zkDevOps) 来「模块化」。

在即将到来的一年里，我预计这种趋势将继续下去，零知识证明将成为模块化区块链堆栈不同组件之间的接口。例如，Axiom 的 ZK 协处理器利用 zkp 提供历史状态证明，然后开发人员可以使用它在 dapp 中执行计算。随着 zkp 成为这些不同提供商之间的公共接口，我们将看到智能合约可组合性的新时代。这为开发人员构建 dapp 提供了更大的灵活性，并降低了区块链堆栈的进入门槛。在消费者方面，zkp 可能会将增加的用例视为保护身份和隐私的一种方式，例如以基于 zk 的分散 id 的形式。

5. 更多的计算密集型应用程序上链，例如 AI 和 DePIN

已经有大量的时间、精力和资金投入到去中心化应用程序的可扩展性问题上。今天，大部分可扩展性问题已经得到解决——以太坊 L2s 的 gas 费用不到 0.02 美元 (相比之下，以太坊主网为 11.5 美元)，而在 Solana 上，费用甚至更低 3-4 个数量级。

随着这一趋势在明年继续下去，我们相信在不久的将来，计算成本高的应用程序 (应用程序可以使用千兆字节的 RAM) 将在链上变得更加经济可行。这包括垂直应用，如链上人工智能系统、去中心化物理基础设施网络 (DePIN)、链上知识图谱，以及完全链上的游戏和社交网络。所有这些都可能从根本上重塑链上数据经济，极大地改善用户和开发人员的体验，因为他们摆脱了繁重的 gas 费用和对计算能力的严格限制。

可以利用这种更便宜的链上「计算」的计算成本高昂的项目的例子包括 Hivemapper 在 Solana 上创建去中心化的谷歌地图，Bittensor 创建去中心化的机器学习平台，Modulus Labs 在 ZKML 和人工智能生成的 NFT 艺术方面的努力，The Graph 的链上知识图计划，以及 Realmsverse 在 Starknet 上创建链上游戏世界和传说。

6. 整合公共区块链生态系统和应用链的「中心辐射式」模式

过去几年，基础设施项目激增。尽管对第 1 层 (L1) 和第 2 层 (L2) 进行了常见的技术分类，但从用户体验的角度来看，并没有太大的区别。对于通用公共区块链来说尤其如此。今天，像 Solana 或 Avalanche 这样的 L1 是像 Arbitrum 或 zkSync 这样的 L2 在用户、项目和容量方面的直接竞争对手。

有了这种同质性，流动性成为通用公共区块链的集中力量，使 Arbitrum、Optimism 和 Solana 等较大的现有参与者受益，目前四大生态系统占总价值锁定 (TVL) 的 90% 左右。较小的生态系统必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域 (如社交、游戏、DeFi)，以保持优势，有效地成为「应用链」或「专业链」。在 TVL 排名前 10 的 L2s 中，有 3 家 (dydx, Loopring, Ronin) 实际上是专注于单一垂直领域的应用链。较小的、较新的 L2 链 (如 Base 和 Blast) 的 TVL「闯入」也严重依赖于单一的「杀手级应用」(例如 friend.tech 和 Blur) 建立大量滩头阵地。

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