SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2023-12-12Última atualização em 2023-12-12

Resumo

昨天市场交易相对平静,在等待CPI数据和FOMC会议的同时,股市延续周五的上行,SPX守住涨幅,收于今年高点附近。昨天亚洲早盘时BTC因大量现货抛单的传闻而暴跌,价格从43.5k闪崩至41k以下,迅速回吐了几周的涨幅,并拖累了整个加密货币市场。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

昨天市场交易相对平静,在等待 CPI 数据和 FOMC 会议的同时,股市延续周五的上行,SPX 守住涨幅,收于今年高点附近;对于 CPI,投行预估 11 月环比将增长 0.3% ,帮助核心 PCE 回到美联储 2.5% 目标值以下,市场预期本月住房通胀和二手车价格将保持稳定,使通胀得到控制,不过本月数据不太可能低到足以支持明年降息 4 – 5 次的市场预期。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

今年最后一次 FOMC 会议将于周三举行,随著市场再次试图引导和迫使美联储走上鸽派道路,人们对美联储应对金融形势急剧放松的期待不断增强;回顾过去两次 FOMC 会议的一些关键指标,GDP、活动指标和就业增长大致稳定,然而,令市场振奋的是核心 PCE、CPI、每小时工资和油价的显著放缓,使得 2026 年远期利率自 9 月和 10 月会议以来已经分别下滑了 75 和 50 个基点。

经济表现稳定,伴随著隐含利率的大幅下滑,为美国股市营造了完美的理想荣景,SPX 自 9 月以来上涨了 3.6 %, 11 月以来上涨了 10 %;接下来,英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行和美联储都将在未来两周召开会议,他们会尝试纠正市场过剩的乐观情绪吗?还是会按兵不动?让我们拭目以待。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

眼前似乎没有什么可以阻止这波风险反弹,而我们也差不多要开始进入股票回购的封锁期,一般发生在获利公布前的 4 至 6 周左右,今年为止的授权回购金额接近 1 万亿美元,是有史以来第三高的年份,为股市提供了另一个支撑;此外,市场参与者目前完全没有寻求看跌保护的迹象,美国股市的尾部对冲成本跌至两年来低点, 3 月时的崩盘似乎已经成为遥远的过去,不过如果要说这些年来市场教会了我们什么 — 乐观通常是有回报的。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

说到尾部风险,昨天亚洲早盘时 BTC 因大量现货抛单的传闻而暴跌,价格从 43.5 k 闪崩至 41 k 以下,迅速回吐了几周的涨幅,并拖累了整个加密货币市场,近 5 亿的多头期货在这次下跌中遭到清算,这让人想起 FTX 前经常看到的规律性剧烈波动;当前头寸单向往多头倾斜,但没有新的 FOMO 资金进入(根据稳定币市值以及 google 趋势缺乏增长判断),随著头寸开始整合,有可能出现更多波动,市场可能需要一些修正才能再次尝试进一步走高。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231212):美国核心CPI放缓,BTC闪崩7%

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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