SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2023-11-08Última atualização em 2023-11-08

Resumo

市场度过了相对平静的24小时,英国央行首席经济学家Pill表示2024年中期可能会是降息的时候,释放出鸽派转向的信号。除了下周的CPI数据,11月份的事件风险似乎非常低,如果核心通胀数据进一步下滑,实际上可能会引发风险资产的下一波上涨。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

在风险情绪依ˊ然高涨的情况下,市场度过了相对平静的 24 小时,英国央行首席经济学家 Pill 表示 2024 年中期可能会是降息的时候,释放出鸽派转向的信号(Pill 表示,在 2024 年 8 月第一次降息,“至少在我看来并非完全不合理...如果没有出现新的情况,到那个时候,你可能会考虑或重新评估我们将不得不采取的行动")。澳洲央行也执行了他们自己版本的“鸽派加息",同时发布了一份关于“进一步货币政策”的随附声明,从而引发澳洲和欧洲早盘的一波利率反弹。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

尽管经济软著陆的主题持续发酵,美国市场的交投却相对平淡,数据方面,亚特兰大联邦储备银行的 GDPNow 预测将第四季度的增长率从 1.2 %提高到 2.1 %,通胀压力继续减轻,Manheim 二手车价值指数显示十月份环比下降了 2.3 %,克利夫兰联邦储备银行的通胀预测显示十一月核心 CPI 仅上涨 0.3 %。此外,原油期货从十月初的高点已经下跌了近 20 %,拉低实际收益率,从而有助于风险偏好走势。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

展望未来,除了下周的 CPI 数据, 11 月份的事件风险似乎非常低,如果核心通胀压力进一步下滑,实际上可能会引发风险资产的下一波上涨。我们预计传统金融投资者将逢低买入,并预计在不久的将来,美联储影响力减弱。只要经济软著陆观点不变,我们将谨慎考虑在反弹期间进行偏空操作。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231108):核心通胀下降,风险资产将迎来下一波上涨?

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Leituras Relacionadas

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, potentially going public by October. Following its latest $650 billion funding round, its pre-IPO valuation stands at $965 billion, with projections reaching up to $2 trillion at listing, which would make it the highest-valued private company ever. The article, written by Fu Sheng, addresses skepticism that this represents an AI bubble akin to the 2000 dot-com crash. It argues the current situation differs fundamentally. Unlike the internet bubble era, which relied on speculative narratives with little revenue, Anthropic's valuation is backed by unprecedented, measurable financial performance. Key data points include: * **Revenue Growth:** ARR skyrocketed from $10 billion in early 2025 to $470 billion by May 2026, targeting $100 billion by year-end—a growth curve unmatched in business history. * **Profitability:** It achieved operating profitability in Q2 2026 with an estimated $5.6 billion profit. * **Efficiency:** With ~3,000 employees and ~$470 billion ARR, its revenue per employee exceeds $10 million. Products like Claude Code, launched less than a year ago, already generate $25 billion in annualized revenue. * **Enterprise Adoption:** It boasts a strong enterprise client base, with 8 of the Fortune 10 and over 1,000 large firms spending over $1 million annually on Claude. The valuation is framed using a traditional SaaS model (e.g., a 10x Price-to-Sales multiple on $100 billion revenue). The author contends the core question for analysts has shifted from "How big could this be?" to "How much is it earning and will earn next quarter?" The discussion extends beyond Anthropic to a broader paradigm shift: the transition from a "carbon-based" to a "silicon-based" economy. Companies are increasingly prioritizing investment in compute and AI capabilities over human resources, as these directly scale productivity and competitive advantage. Anthropic's IPO is thus positioned not just as a corporate milestone, but as a price anchor for this new economic era.

链捕手Há 6m

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

链捕手Há 6m

Near Returns to the AI Stage: Transformation into a Public Chain Due to 'Payroll Difficulties,' Agent and Privacy Emerge as New Growth Narratives

NEAR Returns to AI Origins: From Payroll Struggles to Blockchain, Now Focusing on AI Agents and Privacy NEAR Protocol's journey began not with grand blockchain ambitions, but from a practical hurdle: its AI startup founders, including Transformer paper co-author Illia Polosukhin, couldn't efficiently pay international developers in 2017. This led them to pivot and build a high-performance, scalable blockchain. After years navigating various crypto narratives like sharding and cross-chain interoperability, NEAR is now leveraging its AI roots to re-enter the AI arena. A key driver is its "NEAR Intents" layer, which abstracts complex cross-chain transactions. Users simply state their goal (e.g., swap BTC for ETH), and a solver network finds the optimal route. This system has processed over $20B in cross-chain volume, generating significant fee revenue. A major growth area is private transactions via "Confidential Intents/Swaps," which hide trade details until settlement to protect against MEV and front-running. Remarkably, private swaps recently accounted for over 40% of NEAR's transaction volume, highlighting strong demand but also potential regulatory scrutiny. With its AI-founder pedigree, NEAR is positioning itself at the intersection of blockchain, AI agents, and privacy, aiming to become infrastructure for the emerging agent economy while navigating the challenges of its rapid adoption.

marsbitHá 2h

Near Returns to the AI Stage: Transformation into a Public Chain Due to 'Payroll Difficulties,' Agent and Privacy Emerge as New Growth Narratives

marsbitHá 2h

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly is This Set of 'Slow Variables' That Vitalik Repeatedly Emphasizes?

In recent discussions, Vitalik Buterin has frequently emphasized the concept of "CROPS," a framework defining core values for Ethereum's development. CROPS stands for Censorship Resistance, Capture Resistance, Open Source, Privacy, and Security. Initially outlined in the Ethereum Foundation's "EF Mandate," it represents a commitment to user sovereignty, ensuring that the network resists external control, remains open, protects privacy, and prioritizes security. The relevance of CROPS extends beyond Ethereum's foundational principles, becoming crucial in the context of AI integration. As AI agents begin handling wallet operations and automated transactions, the risk increases that users may cede control over their digital assets, privacy, and intentions to centralized AI service providers. A "CROPS AI" would therefore emphasize local execution where possible, privacy-preserving remote model calls (e.g., using zero-knowledge proofs), and transparent, verifiable processes to maintain user agency. Vitalik highlights a significant convergence between "CROPS Ethereum access layer" and "CROPS AI." Both address the same fundamental challenge: how users can access powerful services—be it blockchain data via RPCs or AI models—without exposing sensitive information or relinquishing ultimate control. This intersection points toward a future digital entry point that is more private, secure, and user-controlled. Ultimately, CROPS is not merely an abstract ideal but a practical guidepost. It steers development—from protocol resilience and wallet design to AI agent safety—towards a future where users retain self-sovereignty even as digital systems grow more complex and powerful. In an era of accelerating AI adoption, these "slow variables" of censorship resistance, openness, privacy, and security may define Ethereum's enduring value.

marsbitHá 2h

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly is This Set of 'Slow Variables' That Vitalik Repeatedly Emphasizes?

marsbitHá 2h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片