长推:$USDR 严重脱钩,目前适合买入套利吗?

MarsBitPublicado em 2023-10-13Última atualização em 2023-10-13

Resumo

$USDR 的储备资产为房地产、 $DAI 和少部分其他代币 。

注:原文来自@jzinvest_xyz发布长推。
@tangibleDAO发行的稳定币 $USDR,藉由 RWA 提供 8~15% 的年化报酬,竟在一夜之间脱钩到 $0.5 。
既然是超额抵押,背后资产又是低波动的房地产,为何会脱钩腰斩?
我会在推文中跟大家解释现在能否买入套利,建议存下来看到最后。
1/
根据 Dune analytics 数据,导致脱钩的主因是挤兑。
$USDR 的储备资产为房地产、 $DAI 和少部分其他代币 。
在 10/11 的提领潮之下,DAI 全数被领完,留下流动性低的房地产,平台只好暂停 DAI 赎回 。
担心无法 1:1 赎回的恐慌随之而生,持有者开始在二级市场抛售 $USDR,导致价格严重脱钩。
2/
协议目前显示 $USDR 仍超额抵押 。
但细看可以发现,其中 15% 是自家平台币 $TNGBL
大家应该都知道,以平台币当作稳定币储备资产其实不可靠 。
撇除 $TNGBL,储备率仅 91% 。
其中 78% 是房地产,13% 为 Insurance fund ( $BAL, $CRV, $AURA 等代币)。
3/
为何突然出现赎回潮?
可能原因之一是,各国央行货币政策紧缩之下,近期房产市场风险提升 。
碧桂园昨日宣布债务将违约,近一步加深了市场的担忧。
USDR 持有者认为,若房市普遍下跌可能导致储备不足,因此赎回避险,结果引发了恐慌抛售。
4/
那么可以折价买入 $USDR 吗?
$USDC 脱钩时,许多分析师大胆预测将会重回 $1,但这次状况截然不同 。
USDC 的储备多半是流动性高的短天期美国国债和现金,储备价值在脱钩当时仍超过 100% 。
因此高机率仍可以 1:1 赎回 ,但 USDR「真实资产」的储备比率目前仅有 91%。
5/
而且房地产的流动性极低,要出售兑现为 $DAI 供用户赎回,可能耗费很长的时间 。
目前房产账面价值 $35M,但需要快速脱手,成交价格可能低于这个数字 。
也就是说,储备资产变现后的真实价值,很可能会低于 USDR 流通量的 $47M 。
USDR 能回稳到什么价格,仍是未知数。
6/
这次脱钩事件凸显了 USDR 设计的瑕疵 。
要打造一个结合高流动性与低流动性资产的储备模型,其实不容易。
债券、商业票据收益率可能较低,但流动性高。房地产的收益率可能较高,但流动性极低 。
要如何动态调整,在提高收益率的同时,确保不会出现挤兑问题?
7/
USDR 的脱钩不应视为 RWA 的失败,只能表示要将链上、链下整合,仍有很多瓶颈需要克服 。
在 code is law 链上的世界中,一切都相对简单 一但牵扯到「人」,事情就将会变得复杂 。
储备房地产能否顺利脱手、是否会有人恶意攻击 USDR 将 DAI 全数领完? 这些都是无法被自动化解决的问题。

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