Bitcoin Jumps on Speculation BlackRock ‘May Know Something’

ReutersPublicado em 2023-06-25Última atualização em 2023-06-25

Resumo

BlackRock Inc.’s surprise filing for a US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund last week has led to a flurry of similar applications from rival issuers and speculation that the asset manager has key insights that will lead to approval of its application.

  • At least three issuers have filed plans since BlackRock filing
  • The SEC has resisted allowing spot Bitcoin ETFs, citing risks

BlackRock Inc.’s surprise filing for a US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund last week has led to a flurry of similar applications from rival issuers and speculation that the asset manager has key insights that will lead to approval of its application.

Bitcoin has jumped more than 20% since the filing to more than $30,000. On Tuesday, Invesco Ltd. renewed its application for the physically-backed Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF within hours of WisdomTree’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust. Days earlier, Bitwise submitted plans for a similar vehicle.

The rush of applications comes in the wake of BlackRock’s bid to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which landed with US regulators last week. Given BlackRock’s status as the world’s biggest money manager with roughly $9 trillion, the filing is being taken as a sign that the SEC might finally give the green light to a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF — a structure the regulator has repeatedly rejected, citing risks such as fraud and manipulation in the spot market for the token.

“When the world’s largest asset manager makes a move like this, other issuers are going to take notice because the stakes are so high in the Bitcoin ETF race,” Nate Geraci, president of advisory firm The ETF Store. “There has been absolutely no indication that the SEC is ready to entertain a spot Bitcoin ETF. The likely assumption is that BlackRock may know something.”

BlackRock declined to comment on the speculation Wednesday. At the time of the filing, a spokeswoman cited regulatory restrictions.

In addition to the rally in Bitcoin, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC)’s discount to its net-asset value has narrowed.

Industry proponents such as Gemini Trust Co.’s Cameron Winklevoss have been quick to cite the rebound to champion the digital currency after what’s been a rough spate that included scandals, bankruptcies and regulatory actions.

The renewed push for a spot Bitcoin ETF follows a long line of rejections. There have been about 30 attempts for such a product, according to a tally from Bloomberg Intelligence. Now, with BlackRock throwing its hat into the ring, there’s likely more to come, in the eyes of Dabner Capital Partners’ Dave Abner.

“Everyone who had a filing is going to resubmit and those who had been considering will also want to be filing soon as well,” said Abner, principal at Dabner Capital Partners, an ETF and crypto advisory firm.

Leituras Relacionadas

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100k Mark: Market Forecasts and Wall Street Views

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100,000: Market Forecasts and Wall Street Views Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 threshold as traders on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi weigh various price targets for the coming years. On Polymarket, with nearly $59.7 million in volume for contracts on Bitcoin's price by end-2026, the probability of hitting $85,000 is seen at 69%, while chances for $90,000 fall to 49%. The likelihood drops significantly for higher targets: $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at 13%. Extreme targets of $150,000 and above are given very low odds. This activity is not purely bullish. Traders also price in significant downside risk, with a 67% chance of Bitcoin falling to $70,000, 44% to $65,000, and 29% to $60,000 before year-end. This creates a wide battlefield of expectations rather than a simple optimistic consensus. Similarly, on Kalshi, a $100,000-target market shows traders assign only a 7% chance of reaching that level by October, 22% by December, and 29% by January 2027. Another contract bets a 21% chance Bitcoin crashes to $50,000 before it ever touches $100,000. In contrast, Wall Street firm Bernstein presents a much more bullish long-term outlook. Analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts Bitcoin reaching approximately $125,000 by year-end, a new high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and a cycle peak around $300,000 by late 2029. This optimism is based on institutional ownership, ETF demand, and Bitcoin's fixed supply amid high sovereign debt. While prediction market speculators anticipate a volatile path with key resistance at $85k, $90k, and $100k and support at $70k and $60k, Bernstein's analysis suggests a significantly higher trajectory in the years ahead.

cryptonews.ruHá 8m

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100k Mark: Market Forecasts and Wall Street Views

cryptonews.ruHá 8m

Trading

Spot
活动图片