Big Week Ahead For Bitcoin And Crypto: This Will Be Crucial

BitcoinistPublicado em 2023-04-10Última atualização em 2023-04-10

Resumo

The Bitcoin and crypto markets have seen a strong weekly close. Bitcoin's price moved straight up into the current key...

The Bitcoin and crypto markets have seen a strong weekly close. Bitcoin’s price moved straight up into the current key resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this puts the price once again just below the current key level that separates BTC from $30,000.
A powerful price move will also benefit the broader crypto market as the rotation in altcoins aka altcoin season has still failed to materialize. Bitcoin and crypto investors should therefore keep an eye on key macro data in the week ahead.
Bitcoin And Crypto Face These Key Events
After a quiet start to the week, one of the most important macro metrics for the financial markets is coming up on Wednesday, April 12, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). When the CPI data is released at 8:30 am EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Investors will be evaluating whether the Federal Reserve can push through another rate hike or whether it will hit the pause button in the face of stronger-than-expected falling inflation combined with the latest US labor market data. The previous month’s CPI was 6.0% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis and 0.4% month-over-month (MoM).
In March, the expectations are for CPI YoY at 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). A miss on expectations is likely to push the Bitcoin price lower as markets price in a higher probability of another Fed rate hike in May.

The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or even exceeded, Bitcoin is likely to head north.

target rate probabilities for May 3 / Bitcoin

target rate probabilities for May 3 | Source: CME FedWatch Tool Later that day, on Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm EST. The meeting minutes will reveal more details on the Fed’s projections and considerations for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.

On Thursday, April 13, both the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 am EST. The PPI MoM is forecasted to come in at 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while the core PPI MoM: is forecast to rise again to 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are forecast at 216,000, and were previously 228,000. Already last week, the US labor market and ISM private sector purchasing managers index figures showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) the US unemployment rate sent a mixed signal and marginally fell (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
On Friday, April 14 at 8:30 am, the US retail sales will be released. March retail sales are expected to fall 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while core retail sales are expected to fall 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data must be seen in the context of slowing economic growth momentum and fears of recession.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close of Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.

Leituras Relacionadas

The Crypto Industry Enters the 'Show Me' Era: Vision Alone Is No Longer Enough

The crypto industry has entered a "Show Me" era, where grand visions and white papers are no longer sufficient to gain traction. This shift is driven by increased skepticism, high-profile bad actors, and notably, the serious entry of traditional finance (TradFi) institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan Chase, which are launching real, scaled products such as tokenized funds and blockchain-based settlement. This raises the bar for what constitutes a credible project. The communication dynamic has fundamentally changed. The focus is no longer on "what you are building" but on "what you have built and who is using it." Startups must now provide a "proof stack": verifiable data like mainnet transaction volume and active wallets, genuine partnerships with signed contracts, and evidence of organic product-market fit from real users, not just investors. Announcements must be backed by concrete, chain-verifiable evidence. For communication strategies, this means leading with proven facts and hard data—even if modest—rather than speculative narratives. A compelling story must be grounded in demonstrated results. While vision remains important, the balance has inverted from 80% vision/20% substance to the opposite. This higher threshold ultimately benefits builders with genuine traction, filtering out noise and allowing their real signals to stand out clearly. The "Show Me" era is a permanent maturation, demanding that communication strategies prove value, not just promise it.

链捕手Há 5m

The Crypto Industry Enters the 'Show Me' Era: Vision Alone Is No Longer Enough

链捕手Há 5m

Meta Follows the Trend into Prediction Markets: Can It Avoid Repeating the Failure of the Metaverse?

Meta, the tech giant behind Facebook, has reportedly formed a team to develop "Arena," a new application focused on prediction markets. Users would use platform points to place bets on outcomes in politics, sports, and global events. This move follows Meta's massive, nearly $900 billion, losses from its heavily-invested metaverse division, Reality Labs. The prediction market industry is already showing strong demand, with leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket facilitating hundreds of billions in annual volume. Meta, with its 3.56 billion daily active users across its apps, possesses the unprecedented scale to bring this niche activity to a mainstream audience, similar to its past success in cloning features like Stories and Reels. However, Arena faces significant hurdles. Meta plans to start with a points-based system to avoid strict financial regulations, but this may dilute the core incentive of accurate prediction that real-money markets provide. More critically, Meta enters the space with a major trust deficit stemming from its past regulatory battles, notably the failed Libra/Diem stablecoin project, and its controversial history with political content and misinformation. The prediction market sector itself is under increasing regulatory scrutiny, with recent CFTC actions including fines and the first-ever insider trading case. While Meta's vast user base offers a unique opportunity to expand the market, its success hinges on navigating complex regulations and rebuilding the credibility necessary for a platform dealing with sensitive topics like elections. The outcome could range from Meta dramatically growing the industry to Arena becoming a high-profile regulatory target before it can scale.

Foresight NewsHá 23m

Meta Follows the Trend into Prediction Markets: Can It Avoid Repeating the Failure of the Metaverse?

Foresight NewsHá 23m

Stock Soars 1200% on First Day, 80s Sales Engineer's Reversal: From Selling FRP to a Fortune of 29 Billion

On its first day of listing, Zhenbao Technology (stock code "N Zhenbao") surged by 1207%, marking itself as the second "ten-bagger" new stock of the year on the STAR Market. The closing price of 585 yuan propelled it into the top 20 of the A-share market by stock price. Dubbed the "first share of semiconductor consumables," the company is backed by a comprehensive shareholder list including National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II, SMIC, BOE, and YMTC. Zhenbao's business model focuses on supplying critical consumable components like silicon rings and quartz parts to semiconductor fabs. Unlike expensive core equipment with low repurchase rates, these consumables require frequent replacement as long as production lines are running, generating stable recurring revenue—a key reason for its high market valuation. Founder Wang Bing, an 80s-born former sales engineer, built the company by identifying a supply chain vulnerability: foreign monopolies on high-purity materials led to high costs and unstable deliveries for domestic fabs. Zhenbao's strategy emphasized reliability and speed over absolute top-tier performance, offering products at about 50% of the price with 80% of the performance but 100% on delivery and responsiveness. To achieve this, the company vertically integrated its operations across "raw materials + components + surface treatment," ensuring supply chain control and cost reduction. Its clientele now spans major domestic fabs like BOE and Huahong, as well as international players like SK Hynix and Texas Instruments. However, risks accompany its rapid expansion. The IPO raised approximately 1.605 billion yuan primarily for capacity expansion, which will bring significant annual depreciation costs, potentially impacting future profitability. The company's growth is heavily reliant on sustained high levels of fab expansion, making it vulnerable to the semiconductor industry's cyclical downturns. Other concerns include high accounts receivable (70.83% of revenue at one point in 2025), heavy reliance on its top five customers (over 70% of sales), and questions about the stability and authenticity of its R&D investments, evidenced by volatile R&D headcount and unusual spikes in R&D energy consumption. While the "consumables story" commands a premium, long-term valuation will depend on maintaining high capacity utilization and healthy cash flow conversion.

marsbitHá 29m

Stock Soars 1200% on First Day, 80s Sales Engineer's Reversal: From Selling FRP to a Fortune of 29 Billion

marsbitHá 29m

Warsh Deals a Heavy Blow to the 'Dollar Devaluation Trade'! Gold Crashes, Bitcoin Slumps, How Long Can the Chip Frenzy Hold?

The "dollar devaluation trade" that dominated Wall Street this year is rapidly unraveling, driven by a hawkish pivot from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and a surging U.S. dollar. This double pressure has triggered a sharp sell-off in non-yielding assets. Gold broke below $4,000 an ounce, silver tumbled below $60, and Bitcoin fell under $60,000, with all retreating significantly from their earlier 2025 peaks. The dollar index hit a 14-month high. Warsh's emphasis on price stability has solidified market expectations for aggressive rate hikes, increasing the opportunity cost of holding assets like precious metals. Concurrently, massive fund flows are rotating out of metals and cryptocurrencies into the semiconductor sector, providing a temporary boost to stocks like Micron and SK Hynix. However, analysts warn this chip rally shows signs of a speculative top. Extreme volatility, with semiconductor stocks seeing trillion-dollar swings, is historically characteristic of major market turning points. Factors like month-end rebalancing, a flood of new equity issuance, and insider selling further signal potential exhaustion. While Micron's strong earnings briefly stemmed selling, it may offer a favorable exit point for remaining chip bulls. The sustainability of the semiconductor frenzy is now in serious doubt as the broader market reprices assets around a stronger dollar and tighter monetary policy.

华尔街日报Há 37m

Warsh Deals a Heavy Blow to the 'Dollar Devaluation Trade'! Gold Crashes, Bitcoin Slumps, How Long Can the Chip Frenzy Hold?

华尔街日报Há 37m

Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

Indian value investor Mohnish Pabrai, a disciple of Warren Buffett, revealed his costly mistake of selling shares in Micron Technology too early. He initially invested in 2017, holding it for six years and building a position as large as 77% of his portfolio, based on a thesis that the memory chip industry would consolidate into a stable oligopoly of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, he sold his entire stake in September 2023, fearing oversupply after Samsung announced production expansion. Shortly after his exit, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) surged with the rise of AI, and Micron's stock price skyrocketed over 15 times in two years. Pabrai estimates this premature sale cost him roughly $20 billion in potential gains. He expressed similar regret over selling his investment in SK Hynix too soon, stating he violated his own principle of holding companies forever. Reflecting on these errors, Pabrai emphasized his core investment checklist principles: avoiding leverage, focusing on the durability of a company's competitive moat, and assessing management's character. Despite these personal trading missteps, his long-term view on the remaining memory chip leaders remains bullish, advising current holders not to sell as "the party is just getting started." He concluded by sharing his philosophical outlook, prioritizing character over wealth, and his goal to donate his entire fortune before his passing.

marsbitHá 1h

Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

marsbitHá 1h

Trading

Spot

Futuros