Huobi's Weekly News(3.13-3.19)

HuobiPublicado em 2023-03-20Última atualização em 2023-03-20

Resumo

The Breaking News Last Week and Preview of This Week's News

The breaking news of last week:

Bull News of Last Week

1. Key Word: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inject Liquidity

Market observers are on the alert to find out just how much extra funding the Federal Reserve’s new bank backstop program will ultimately add into the system, with analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. positing that it could inject anywhere up to $2 trillion in liquidity.

2. Key Word: USDC, Join Calls For Important Bank

Following the confirmation at the end of today that the wires initiated on Thursday to remove balances were not yet processed, $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB.

Like other customers and depositors who relied on SVB for banking services, Circle joins calls for continuity of this important bank in the U.S. economy and will follow guidance provided by state and Federal regulators.

3. Key Word: Interest Rates, PPI、Decline

The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on March 22 despite recent banking sector turmoil, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters who were divided on the risks to their terminal rate view.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US declined to 4.6% on a yearly basis in February from 5.7% in January.

4. Key Word: Digital Euro, Legal Tender

Governments within the euro currency bloc are set to discuss strategic objectives for the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The paper, drafted by the secretariat of the Eurogroup, will be put before finance ministers later on Monday.

An early copy of the paper suggests that if the digital euro is deemed legal tender, merchants within the euro area could be required to accept it.

5. Key Word: HKMA-BIS, Conference

The HKMA-BIS Joint Conference on 24 March. It will also be the first of a series of celebration events for the HKMA’s 30th anniversary. We have invited over 100 representatives from central banks and supervisory authorities, as well as leaders of financial institutions, to attend the Conference. Participants will discuss forward-looking issues for the banking industry including how supervisors and banks can cope with an ever-changing financial environment and the future development of crypto assets.

6. Key Word: CME Group, New Bitcoin Futures

CME Group has gone live with event contracts on Bitcoin futures in a move that further expands the derivatives trading giant’s digital asset offering.

Bear News of Last Week

7. Key Word: Silicon Valley Bank,Bankruptcy Protection

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York. SVB Financial Group says the Group has approximately $2.2 billion in liquidity and that the finance team is evaluating strategic options. the subsidiaries filing for bankruptcy do not include SVB Securities and SVB Capital. silicon Valley Bridge Bank ( Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, N.A. is not included in the Chapter 11 proceedings.

8. Key Word: Ethereum’s “Shapella” Upgrade, 29% Validator Participation Rate

The pressure was on for a successful Goerli testnet launch as it was the last simulation before Ethereum’s “Shapella” upgrade activates live on the mainnet blockchain. When the testnet came around on Tuesday, however, only a 29% validator participation rate was reported. This resulted in a brief delay, caused by some validators running older versions of clients.

9.Key Word: Joe Biden,Banking System, Regulation

President Joe Biden declared the U.S. banking system "safe" and vowed stiffer bank regulation, after U.S. regulators were forced to step in with a series of emergency measures after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapse, threatening to trigger a broader crisis.

"Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. Your deposits will be there when you need them," Biden said.

10. Key Word: South Korea Prosecutors,Do Kwon

South Korea prosecutors say Serbia ready to help fraud investigation into Terra’s Do Kwon

Prosecutors flew to Serbia earlier this month as part of an investigation into Terraform Labs chief Do Kwon, who faces fraud accusations related to the US$40 billion collapse of his Terra-Luna cryptocurrency project in May last year.

Events coming in this week

1. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on March 21-22.;

2. Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution ImmutableX will announce two major updates on March 21;

3. AI artist Claire Silver to show NFT collection at Louvre on March 21;

4. The Federal Reserve will announce its March rate decision on March 22;

5. Arbitrum will airdrop a governance token with the ticker ARB to its community members on March 23;

6. Hong Kong Monetary Authority to Host Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) Meeting on March 22-23.

Leituras Relacionadas

History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

**Title: The Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate Over Any 4-Year Holding Period** This article analyzes which major, freely-tradable assets have historically never produced a nominal loss over any rolling 4-year holding window. It concludes that only two distinct categories achieve this: ultra-low-risk contractual assets and Bitcoin. Among traditional risk assets, none maintain a perfect 4-year record. The S&P 500 had negative 4-year periods (e.g., 1929-1932: -64.8%). The Nasdaq 100 fell roughly 60% from 2000-2003. Gold saw a ~47.7% loss from 1981-1984. US real estate declined about 23.3% from 2007-2010. Even long-term US Treasury bonds (e.g., 2021-2024: -19.8%) and corporate bonds can produce 4-year losses due to interest rate and market price risks. In contrast, the first category achieving 100% nominal success includes assets like rolling 3-month US Treasury Bills, 4-year certificates of deposit (CDs), and US Treasuries held to maturity within 4 years. Their "guarantee" stems from contractual obligations and credit backing (e.g., FDIC insurance, US sovereign promise), not price appreciation. The sole exception in the high-risk category is Bitcoin. Analysis of daily data from 2010-2026 across 4,419 rolling 4-year windows shows a 100% positive return rate. The worst 4-year period (April 2021 to April 2025) still yielded a +32.6% total return (~7.3% CAGR). This record is unique because Bitcoin has no issuer, promises no cash flows, and has endured severe drawdowns (70-90%), yet its market price has always recovered within a 4-year span. The key distinction is the source of the "100%": contractual assets offer known, low nominal returns, while Bitcoin's record stems purely from historical price appreciation despite extreme volatility. The article suggests that for Bitcoin, the ability to hold for 4+ years is more critical than active trading strategies.

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History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

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How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

This article details the dramatic rise and near-collapse of a hedge fund built by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher. The fund, named Situational Awareness, amassed $45 billion in assets within two years. Its explosive growth stemmed from Aschenbrenner's influential 165-page manifesto predicting AGI's arrival by 2027 and his high-profile Silicon Valley connections. The fund employed an extremely aggressive strategy: high concentration and 400% leverage to bet long on AI infrastructure stocks while shorting legacy software firms. In July, this structure backfired when both sides of the trade reversed simultaneously—AI stocks plunged while shorted stocks rallied—triggering massive losses that nearly wiped out all equity. Major player Jane Street reportedly lost billions. The fund's leveraged public portfolio was ultimately sold at a discount to Citadel. The SEC is now investigating banks like Goldman Sachs for their role in facilitating the fund's high-leverage trades. The article compares this to past blow-ups like Archegos, highlighting systemic failures in risk management where the pursuit of short-term profits overrode due diligence. It questions whether such risky leverage concentrated in the AI sector, currently at record highs, poses a broader systemic threat. Ironically, Aschenbrenner, who studied AI safety at OpenAI, designed a fund structure prone to uncontrolled failure. Days after the crisis, he reportedly raised another $400 million for new investments.

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How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

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AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

This summer, the mathematics community was shaken as OpenAI's Astra model reportedly solved 10 long-standing open problems, and Claude Fable 5 found a potential counterexample to the Jacobian conjecture. This was followed by a major shift in physics: renowned physicist Gavin E. Crooks presented an open problem in stochastic thermodynamics to Claude, which the AI solved completely in days—a task that might take a skilled graduate student months. The problem concerned constraints on entropy production statistics under the Detailed Fluctuation Theorem (DFT), a core concept in non-equilibrium physics. Claude provided a unifying geometric answer: all possible DFT-compatible distributions correspond to a convex "moment body." Its key insight was that for a fixed "gap," the distribution is uniquely determined, making any general DFT distribution a mixture of these basic two-outcome distributions. This structure implies that for given lower-order moments, the nth moment only has a sharp lower bound, with no upper bound. Claude demonstrated that numerous previously published bounds on entropy production are merely low-dimensional projections or "shadows" of this single, unified convex body. The AI-authored paper offers a complete hierarchical characterization of the moment constraints. This case signifies a potential paradigm shift: AI is progressing from solving known problems to aiding in the exploration of fundamental, unsolved scientific questions, heralding an AI-accelerated era for physics.

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AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

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