Can New Bitcoin Rally Keep Up? Low Spot Volumes Say Otherwise

BitcoinistPublicado em 2022-03-31Última atualização em 2022-03-31

Resumo

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot trading volume hasn't seen any significant rise recently, suggesting that the new rally may...

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot trading volume hasn’t seen any significant rise recently, suggesting that the new rally may not last for too long.
Bitcoin Spot Trading Volume Observed Only A Slight Increase In The Past Week
As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, the BTC trading volume hasn’t risen much recently despite the new price rally.
The “daily trading volume” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin changing hands on any given day.
When the value of the metric rises, it means more coins are being transacted on the chain now. Such a trend shows that the market is becoming more active as investors find more interest in the crypto.
On the other hand, declining values of the indicator suggest the Bitcoin network is becoming increasingly inactive. This kind of trend may imply that the general interest around the coin is going down.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Trading Volume over the past year:

Bitcoin Trading Volume

The indicator's value doesn't look to be very high at the moment | Source: Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 12, 2022
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin trading volume has observed a small increase over the last seven days.
However, despite the increase, the value of the indicator is still quite low historically, suggesting that there aren’t many traders involved in the network right now.
Usually, whenever the indicator has had low trading volumes, any large move in the price hasn’t lasted long. This is because of the fact that to sustain such moves, you need a lot of traders in the market.
During periods of low Bitcoin volumes, there aren’t many traders buying and selling. However, generally any big price move attracts more investors on its own, thus keeping itself fueled.
But since the latest rally that has taken the price of BTC above $47k has failed to attract any significant trading volume, it may not be able to keep going for long.
That said, things could very well change in the coming days as they have already done a few times in the past, and high activity could once again return to the network.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47.2k, up 12% in the past week. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the crypto has surged up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Leituras Relacionadas

Didier Zheng Answers: Will MicroStrategy Enter a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Trend Unfold in the Second Half of the Year?

In the latest WuShuo Uncensored podcast, investor Didier Zheng analyzes recent market trends. He argues that Bitcoin's recent decline is primarily driven by market anticipation of MicroStrategy potentially selling small amounts of Bitcoin regularly to cover cash flow for its growing priority shares and debt, rather than macro factors or ETF outflows alone. This creates a new dynamic of expected continuous selling pressure. Didier views Token as the new form of labor in the AI era, replacing human roles in execution and driving the ongoing rally in U.S. stocks within the AI supply chain (semiconductors, data centers). This shift is seen as a long-term structural change, boosting corporate profitability. He notes that crypto exchanges are naturally expanding into U.S. stocks and real-world assets due to the scarcity of valuable native crypto assets beyond Bitcoin and major protocols. For traders, the transition may not require a drastic change in strategy, as similar speculative and fundamental assets exist in both markets. The analyst believes the native crypto altcoin rally is likely over, severely damaged by the liquidity destruction from the "1011" crash event. Liquidity has migrated to deeper markets like U.S. equities. For the macro outlook, Didier expresses increased caution for H2 2024 due to potential market pressure from mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the U.S. midterm elections. A Democratic sweep could bring stricter regulation for Web3 and AI. Long-term, he remains optimistic about the convergence of AI and blockchain, enabling a more automated, machine-driven economy, but expects a shift towards a more mature, institutional phase for the crypto industry.

marsbitHá 14m

Didier Zheng Answers: Will MicroStrategy Enter a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Trend Unfold in the Second Half of the Year?

marsbitHá 14m

Bitcoin's Historically Rare Pattern: When August Rises, September Always Pulls Back, Followed by an Average 44% Surge in October

Historical Seasonal Pattern for Bitcoin Resurfaces: Strong August (Up 25% YTD) Points to Potential September Dip, Followed by October Rally Bitcoin is on track for its strongest August performance since 2017, with gains of approximately 25% for the month as of late August, trading between $78K-$79K. This has revived discussion of a historical seasonal pattern observed since 2013. Data shows that in the four previous years where Bitcoin posted a positive return in August (2013, 2017, 2020, 2021), the following September consistently closed in negative territory, with an average decline of about -5.9%. Notably, a positive September has never followed a positive August in Bitcoin's history. However, the pattern shows a potential silver lining. Following each instance of a "Green August" followed by a "Red September," the subsequent month of October has historically seen significant rallies. The average gain for October after such a sequence is approximately +44%. While this pattern highlights a recurring seasonal trend, analysts caution that it is based on a limited sample size of only four occurrences. Each period had distinct macroeconomic and market conditions. Therefore, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and whether 2026 will follow this sequence remains to be seen as September trading begins.

marsbitHá 14m

Bitcoin's Historically Rare Pattern: When August Rises, September Always Pulls Back, Followed by an Average 44% Surge in October

marsbitHá 14m

Strive CEO: US Bond Market Approaching a Critical Point, Bitcoin's "Home Run Moment" Taking Shape

The CEO of Strive argues that the U.S. Treasury market is approaching a critical juncture, setting the stage for a major opportunity in Bitcoin. He highlights that unsustainable U.S. fiscal deficits and expanding entitlement programs are creating fundamental pressure for higher long-term bond yields. However, the political system is unwilling to enact necessary fiscal discipline. Consequently, as the 10-year Treasury yield enters a key resistance zone of 5.25%–5.85%, the narrative will shift to a potential bond market crisis. This will force policymakers (the Treasury or Federal Reserve) to intervene aggressively to suppress yields through tools like large-scale bond buybacks or balance sheet expansion. Since the underlying fiscal imbalance remains unresolved, the adjustment pressure will be transferred to the U.S. dollar, making it the "pressure release valve" of the system. A trend decline in the dollar, potentially to multi-decade lows, would create a historically unique macro environment for Bitcoin. Bitcoin stands to benefit as a scarce, non-sovereign monetary asset, especially as AI erodes the scarcity of traditional corporate moats. The author concludes that if bond market stress causes a Bitcoin dip, it would be a major buying opportunity; if not, having exposure is still crucial. The overall expectation is that the market is still underestimating Bitcoin's long-term upside potential in this unfolding macro shift.

marsbitHá 23m

Strive CEO: US Bond Market Approaching a Critical Point, Bitcoin's "Home Run Moment" Taking Shape

marsbitHá 23m

No Spot Price, How to Trade Anthropic? Entropy Wants to Use Order Books to Price Private Assets

**Summary:** Entropy, operating as a HIP-3 deployer on Hyperliquid, is introducing perpetual contracts for private pre-IPO companies—starting with Anthropic—where no continuous public market price exists. To address this, Entropy employs a novel "liquidity-weighted oracle" that blends its own order book's mid-price (based on a 5-minute EMA) with aggregated external private market data. The oracle’s reliance on internal market prices scales with the "executable depth" within a 200bps range: when order book liquidity is deep and credible, Entropy’s market can command up to 95% weight in pricing; when liquidity thins, the oracle falls back on stale private data. This design aims to prevent manipulation via spoofing and allows the market to generate a continuous consensus price for illiquid assets. If Anthropic remains private at expiry, the ANTH contract will settle based on a 30-day TWAP of its own mark price—essentially settling on the market’s own derived valuation rather than a fundamental or IPO price. Entropy’s bet is that sufficient, credible liquidity can enable real-time price discovery for private assets, closing the gap between infrequent private funding rounds and public market dynamics.

marsbitHá 24m

No Spot Price, How to Trade Anthropic? Entropy Wants to Use Order Books to Price Private Assets

marsbitHá 24m

JPMorgan Research Report Analysis: NVIDIA's October Outlook Bullish at $107 Billion, H200 Shipments to China a Variable

JP Morgan's preview report for Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 reiterates an Overweight rating and a $280 price target. While the upcoming quarterly results are expected to beat consensus again, with Q3 guidance potentially reaching $107-108 billion (vs. $104.5B consensus), the bank notes this alone may not drive the stock higher. Historical data shows shares have typically fallen after strong guidance beats. The market now focuses on four key issues: 1) **China H200 shipments**, which have seen preliminary signs and could provide a significant revenue uplift (~$3B per 100k units). 2) **HBM supply constraints**, as evidenced by scaled-back memory configurations for the upcoming Rubin platform. 3) **Competition from AI ASICs/XPUs**, where Nvidia can highlight its platform flexibility and the ~90% per-token cost reduction expected from Vera Rubin vs. Blackwell Ultra. 4) The sustainability of **AI infrastructure investment**. JP Morgan argues Nvidia's valuation is at historically low levels (approx. 17x CY2027 consensus EPS), providing a buffer. The stock's performance hinges on management's ability to address these structural concerns, not just on surpassing numerical forecasts.

marsbitHá 1h

JPMorgan Research Report Analysis: NVIDIA's October Outlook Bullish at $107 Billion, H200 Shipments to China a Variable

marsbitHá 1h

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow