Host: yuanyuan, BitMart Marketing VP
Guest: 0xTodd, Partner at Nothing Research, Co-founder of Ethereum Staking Pool EBunker
Recording Date: December 16, 2025
BitMart's "Crypto Market Observer" is a newly launched in-depth Chinese talk show by BitMart, inviting the most discerning and influential builders, investors, and researchers in the Web3 industry to discuss financial innovation, technological evolution, and long-term trends, leaving behind judgments and experiences of genuine reference value for the industry.
In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price fluctuations, narrative rotations, and the next big opportunity. But what truly determines whether one can stay at the table long-term is often not a single instance of doubling one's money, but rather: when the market gives no feedback, does he still know what he is doing?
This is something 0xTodd has repeatedly verified over the past eight years.
Having crossed over from a materials chemistry background into the crypto industry in 2017, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder persistently seeking "certainty" within the underlying structures. Compared to emotion-driven participation, he is more concerned with: which things are worth long-term bets.
I. Crossover: From the Laboratory to the "Arrival Moment" of Bitcoin
Todd's entry into the industry was not gradual but carried distinct marks of the era.
In 2017, he was preparing to apply for overseas PhD programs. Simultaneously, the "WannaCry" ransomware attack erupted globally, with hackers demanding victims pay the ransom in Bitcoin. While most focused on the cybersecurity risk itself, he saw another signal—Bitcoin entering the mainstream narrative for the first time with a "real use case."
Having been exposed to Bitcoin as early as 2013, Todd was highly sensitive to this point. He later mentioned an empirical judgment multiple times:
Whenever mainstream media begins to seriously discuss "what Bitcoin can be used for," it often signifies the unfolding of a major cycle.
Thus, he halted his PhD applications and turned to enter the crypto industry. In his view, this was not a speculative choice but a rational decision made after亲眼 witnessing a new financial species beginning to enter the mainstream视野—a shift from a traditional academic path with sluggish growth to a new field still evolving rapidly.
II. Taking a Stand Amid the Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna
After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd's main labels.
From early outputs on Zhihu, to entering family offices and exchange research institutes to establish a formal research system, to later founding Nothing Research, he has consistently focused on long-term research around core themes like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. As his platform shifted to Twitter (X), his research gained wider visibility and more frequent质疑.
In 2021, when Luna and UST were at the peak of market sentiment, he chose to stand in almost the most unpopular position—publicly questioning its underlying structure and defining it as a system highly reliant on confidence支撑. For a period, this judgment brought him not applause but持续不断的attacks and ridicule.
The result came in 2022: UST collapsed. The funds managed by Todd achieved significant net value growth by shorting UST during the extreme market conditions. Although he didn't completely "exit at the top" during DeFi Summer, this successful judgment also confirmed his repeated emphasis on "earning money through cognition."
"The thrill of proving one's cognition with real money is more satisfying than ordinary profit-making; it's a疯狂分泌of dopamine."
III. Research Methodology: I Welcome the Whole World to 'Argue'
Unlike many researchers, Todd does not shy away from debate; he even actively encourages "arguing."
He habitually invites people with different stances to raise objections after publishing his research views. In his view, the real danger is not being opposed, but having research conclusions反复自洽in a closed environment without ever undergoing external testing.
This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:
Every conclusion needs a source, every logic needs to be traceable, every judgment must be able to be reviewed.
Because of this, his research standards remain restrained and strict—preferring slowness over sacrificing accuracy for attention. In an industry saturated with information, this "slow thinking" has instead helped him avoid a vast amount of noise.
In his view, the biggest challenge in the crypto industry is not a lack of information, but how to judge which information is worth believing. The methodology formed during his academic research phase恰恰became an important tool for him to filter information.
IV. Investment Philosophy: An Asset Portfolio That Lets You 'Sleep Soundly'
When it comes to asset allocation, Todd presented a组合结构he currently most agrees with—Bitcoin + U.S. Bonds.
The logic is not complicated:
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Bitcoin: Just observe one variable—whether major economies are still expanding their money supply. As long as the fiat system continues to inflate, Bitcoin's value as a hedge as a "non-sovereign, limited supply asset" will not disappear.
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U.S. Bonds: In a high-interest-rate cycle, lock in long-term returns of around 4%–5%, providing stable cash flow for the portfolio.
This forms a complete closed loop in his view:
If they keep printing money, Bitcoin benefits; if they stop printing money, U.S. Bonds provide stable returns.
"This is a portfolio that can let you sleep soundly long-term."
V. The Underestimated Killer App: Stablecoins
If Bitcoin is the first killer application in the blockchain field, then in Todd's view, stablecoins are the second, and they are still underestimated.
After living and working overseas, his感受of the value of stablecoins became extremely intuitive. The traditional banking system is not as stable as imagined; account restrictions, compliance reviews, and cross-border friction can appear at any time. Stablecoins only require a wallet to complete value transfer globally.
On the RWA (Real World Assets) topic, his attitude remains equally restrained and discerning:
He is cautious about "comprehensive tokenization of securities," believing traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; but for stablecoin products pegged to real yield assets, especially U.S. bonds, he shows明显的long-term optimism.
In this context, he has also noticed products like BMRUSD launched by BitMart (in cooperation with DigiFT). Such stablecoins, anchored to real assets and providing predictable yields, are precisely the form more likely to be accepted by the market long-term under the trend of合规化.
"After using stablecoins once, it's hard to go completely back to the traditional banking system."
The Silicon-Based Perspective of AI: Crypto is Its Natural Solution
Regarding the relationship between AI and crypto, Todd is not沉迷in conceptual overlap but thinks from a structural perspective.
In his view, AI-assisted trading is a direction that is almost certain to happen. As model capabilities continue to improve, the stability and speed of AI at the execution level will eventually surpass the vast majority of human traders.
More importantly, there is the issue of collaboration and payment between AIs. When AIs start calling each other's services, purchasing computing power, or data, binding a bank card is obviously not realistic. High-precision, programmable, permissionless stablecoins instead become the most natural settlement medium.
From this perspective, Crypto is not a subsidiary narrative of AI but its natural complement on the economic level.
When asked if he, as a content creator, worries about being replaced by AI, Todd said he would prepare expectations in advance and wait for its arrival.
Advice for Newcomers, and Three Judgments for 2026
For newcomers wanting to enter the industry, Todd's advice remains practical and conservative:
Learn technology first, then learn trading.
Understanding the technical principles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than staring at K-lines from the start.
Regarding future judgments, he proposed three main themes:
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Crypto finds its place in the AI wave: AI provides productivity, Crypto provides production relations.
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Stablecoin use cases continue to expand: Payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlement will truly enter the public视野.
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Compliance brings structural增量: Participation by large financial institutions will push the industry into a new stage of development.
Slow Judgment is the Long-Term Competitiveness
Todd does not chase the crest of narratives. He is more like someone always moving within the structure: researching, verifying, building, reviewing.
In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but those who ultimately remain are often those who truly understand the structure and are willing to take responsibility for every word they say.
Risk Warning:
The言论or views expressed in this column represent only the personal立场of the guest and do not represent the views of BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered professional financial investment advice.
Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and accompanied by significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical situations, or simulated results do not represent future returns. The value of digital currencies can be volatile, and buying, holding, or trading digital currencies may involve significant risks. Before participating in transactions or holding digital currencies, please carefully evaluate their suitability based on your investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.
