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HTX data showed that XMR broke through 350  USDT and is now at 350.04 USDT, with a increase of 1.95% in 24H.

[XMR broke through 350  USDT] HTX data showed that XMR broke through 350  USDT and is now at 350.04 USDT, with a increase of 1.95% in 24H.

XMR broke through 350  USDT

S&P 500 futures in the U.S. rose 0.13%, Dow Jones futures increased by 0.29%, while Nasdaq 100 futures remained flat.

[S&P 500 Futures Rise 0.13% in the U.S.]S&P 500 futures in the U.S. rose 0.13%, Dow Jones futures increased by 0.29%, while Nasdaq 100 futures remained flat.

S&P 500 Futures Rise 0.13% in the U.S.

On April 17, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a statement declaring that both the IRGC and the Iranian military are prepared to deliver a strong response to any acts of aggression or criminal behavior by enemies. The statement noted that attempts by enemies to invade Iran through land and sea operations and seize Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf have been thwarted. Should the enemies dare to take any reckless actions in their aggression against Iran, they will undoubtedly face a fatal counterattack from Iran, resulting not only in humiliation and a strategic defeat but also leaving them with nothing.

[Iran Ready to Strongly Respond to Enemy Aggression]On April 17, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a statement declaring that both the IRGC and the Iranian military are prepared to deliver a strong response to any acts of aggression or criminal behavior by enemies. The statement noted that attempts by enemies to invade Iran through land and sea operations and seize Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf have been thwarted. Should the enemies dare to take any reckless actions in their aggression against Iran, they will undoubtedly face a fatal counterattack from Iran, resulting not only in humiliation and a strategic defeat but also leaving them with nothing.

Iran Ready to Strongly Respond to Enemy Aggression

Gold futures are expected to record another week of gains, as optimism over potential talks between the U.S. and Iran, along with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, has pressured oil prices and boosted overall market sentiment. Soojin Kim from Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFG) stated, "The softening of oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns." However, despite gold recovering some of its earlier losses, prices remain about 9% lower than levels at the onset of the conflict; ongoing risks to energy supply and damaged infrastructure may keep inflation uncertainty elevated. In early European trading, New York gold futures were flat at $4,807.30 per ounce.

[Mitsubishi UFJ: Gold Futures Expected to Rise Weekly]Gold futures are expected to record another week of gains, as optimism over potential talks between the U.S. and Iran, along with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, has pressured oil prices and boosted overall market sentiment. Soojin Kim from Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFG) stated, "The softening of oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns." However, despite gold recovering some of its earlier losses, prices remain about 9% lower than levels at the onset of the conflict; ongoing risks to energy supply and damaged infrastructure may keep inflation uncertainty elevated. In early European trading, New York gold futures were flat at $4,807.30 per ounce.

Mitsubishi UFJ: Gold Futures Expected to Rise Weekly

On April 17, data from CryptoQuant indicated that the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically significant pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While an immediate 'V-shaped' reversal is not guaranteed, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC. Data analysis confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023, although the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which would signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Furthermore, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a 'value accumulation zone', where the downside potential is diminishing compared to the long-term upside potential. However, price stabilization is still needed to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

[CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Enters 'Value Accumulation Zone', Downside Potential Limited]On April 17, data from CryptoQuant indicated that the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically significant pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While an immediate 'V-shaped' reversal is not guaranteed, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC. Data analysis confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023, although the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which would signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Furthermore, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a 'value accumulation zone', where the downside potential is diminishing compared to the long-term upside potential. However, price stabilization is still needed to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Enters 'Value Accumulation Zone', Downside Potential Limited

On April 17, the market began to reprice 'the form of war' rather than 'the existence of war.' The shift from a comprehensive agreement to a temporary framework between the U.S. and Iran, along with increasing ceasefire signals, has superficially reduced the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions, directly triggering a decline in dollar safe-haven demand and a rebound in risk assets. However, at the same time, the U.S. has expanded its shipping and energy-related sanctions against Iran, including crude oil, refined oil, and industrial metals, indicating that substantial constraints on the supply side have not only remained in place but have become more structural. This mismatch of 'expected easing vs. actual contraction' is distorting market pricing. There has been no substantial easing in the energy market, yet the dollar has weakened due to a recovery in risk appetite, creating a typical asset misalignment: safe-haven assets are prematurely reflecting optimistic scenarios while commodities continue to price in supply constraints. This is why Wall Street has begun to uniformly turn bearish on the dollar; the essence is not a deterioration in fundamentals but rather a rebalancing behavior of funds flowing back from wartime allocations to risk assets. Deeper changes are coming from policy levels and funding structures. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious or even tight tone internally, while the market's pricing for rate cuts throughout the year has been drastically compressed, indicating that interest rate expectations have not genuinely shifted towards easing. Additionally, warnings from former Treasury secretaries about risks to U.S. Treasury demand, combined with persistently high long-term rates, suggest that global trust in 'risk-free assets' is marginally wavering. This could further weaken the structural support for the dollar, making it more susceptible to fluctuations in risk sentiment. Returning to the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently in a typical liquidity redistribution phase. The price has tested the supply zone above 75,000 multiple times without effectively stabilizing, with high-density liquidation and trapped pressure persisting around the 76,000 level; however, a clear liquidity support has formed in the 72,000 to 73,000 range, indicating that funds have not withdrawn but have instead shifted to high-frequency reallocation within the range. From the perspective of liquidation heat distribution, the market is constructing a new equilibrium rather than extending a unidirectional trend. Overall, the market has transitioned from being 'event-driven' to being 'structural mismatch-driven.' Short-term price fluctuations will depend more on how funds are reallocated between safe-haven assets, energy commodities, and risk assets, rather than on any single macro event itself. The real key now is not whether the conflict ends, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions will realign.

[Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire Expectations Lower Risk Premiums, But Sanctions and Shipping Restrictions Expand, Market Enters 'Surface Easing, Internal Contraction' Mismatch Phase]On April 17, the market began to reprice 'the form of war' rather than 'the existence of war.' The shift from a comprehensive agreement to a temporary framework between the U.S. and Iran, along with increasing ceasefire signals, has superficially reduced the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions, directly triggering a decline in dollar safe-haven demand and a rebound in risk assets. However, at the same time, the U.S. has expanded its shipping and energy-related sanctions against Iran, including crude oil, refined oil, and industrial metals, indicating that substantial constraints on the supply side have not only remained in place but have become more structural. This mismatch of 'expected easing vs. actual contraction' is distorting market pricing. There has been no substantial easing in the energy market, yet the dollar has weakened due to a recovery in risk appetite, creating a typical asset misalignment: safe-haven assets are prematurely reflecting optimistic scenarios while commodities continue to price in supply constraints. This is why Wall Street has begun to uniformly turn bearish on the dollar; the essence is not a deterioration in fundamentals but rather a rebalancing behavior of funds flowing back from wartime allocations to risk assets. Deeper changes are coming from policy levels and funding structures. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious or even tight tone internally, while the market's pricing for rate cuts throughout the year has been drastically compressed, indicating that interest rate expectations have not genuinely shifted towards easing. Additionally, warnings from former Treasury secretaries about risks to U.S. Treasury demand, combined with persistently high long-term rates, suggest that global trust in 'risk-free assets' is marginally wavering. This could further weaken the structural support for the dollar, making it more susceptible to fluctuations in risk sentiment. Returning to the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently in a typical liquidity redistribution phase. The price has tested the supply zone above 75,000 multiple times without effectively stabilizing, with high-density liquidation and trapped pressure persisting around the 76,000 level; however, a clear liquidity support has formed in the 72,000 to 73,000 range, indicating that funds have not withdrawn but have instead shifted to high-frequency reallocation within the range. From the perspective of liquidation heat distribution, the market is constructing a new equilibrium rather than extending a unidirectional trend. Overall, the market has transitioned from being 'event-driven' to being 'structural mismatch-driven.' Short-term price fluctuations will depend more on how funds are reallocated between safe-haven assets, energy commodities, and risk assets, rather than on any single macro event itself. The real key now is not whether the conflict ends, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions will realign.

Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire Expectations Lower Risk Premiums, But Sanctions and Shipping Restrictions Expand, Market Enters 'Surface Easing, Internal Contraction' Mismatch Phase

On April 17, Ryoji Musha, president of Japan's Musha Research, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported by the media and actual market behavior is significant and cannot be ignored. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the S&P 500 index has recovered all its losses and is now just 1% away from its historical high. While the prices of recently delivered crude oil futures remain high, the prices for contracts due in six months have fallen back to the $70 range. Therefore, the market is not assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for an extended period, nor is it anticipating a third oil crisis. Furthermore, Musha pointed out that the world's dependence on oil is not as high as it was in the 1970s, and the share of oil in Japan's energy structure has decreased from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes for oil transport, such as pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already exist, and a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not be in Iran's interest, as this strait is also a lifeline for Iranian trade. Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs of imported energy and transportation, but the market's trading behavior no longer suggests an impending full-blown oil crisis.

[Analyst: Market Not Betting on Long-Term Closure of Hormuz or Third Oil Crisis]On April 17, Ryoji Musha, president of Japan's Musha Research, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported by the media and actual market behavior is significant and cannot be ignored. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the S&P 500 index has recovered all its losses and is now just 1% away from its historical high. While the prices of recently delivered crude oil futures remain high, the prices for contracts due in six months have fallen back to the $70 range. Therefore, the market is not assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for an extended period, nor is it anticipating a third oil crisis. Furthermore, Musha pointed out that the world's dependence on oil is not as high as it was in the 1970s, and the share of oil in Japan's energy structure has decreased from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes for oil transport, such as pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already exist, and a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not be in Iran's interest, as this strait is also a lifeline for Iranian trade. Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs of imported energy and transportation, but the market's trading behavior no longer suggests an impending full-blown oil crisis.

Analyst: Market Not Betting on Long-Term Closure of Hormuz or Third Oil Crisis

On April 17, UBS's research report indicated that the Federal Reserve is still on a path toward further easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed the necessity of tightening monetary policy due to rising energy prices, noting that policymakers typically 'ignore' supply shocks like surging oil prices, especially when inflation expectations remain firmly controlled. Although the Fed is still seeking further evidence of a sustained decline in core inflation before implementing additional easing measures, we still expect a 50 basis point rate cut later this year. Given that U.S. Treasury yields are significantly higher than pre-conflict levels, we believe there is ample room for downward movement, with our year-end targets for the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields set at 3.25% and 3.75%, respectively.

[UBS: Expects Fed to Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points Later This Year]On April 17, UBS's research report indicated that the Federal Reserve is still on a path toward further easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed the necessity of tightening monetary policy due to rising energy prices, noting that policymakers typically 'ignore' supply shocks like surging oil prices, especially when inflation expectations remain firmly controlled. Although the Fed is still seeking further evidence of a sustained decline in core inflation before implementing additional easing measures, we still expect a 50 basis point rate cut later this year. Given that U.S. Treasury yields are significantly higher than pre-conflict levels, we believe there is ample room for downward movement, with our year-end targets for the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields set at 3.25% and 3.75%, respectively.

UBS: Expects Fed to Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points Later This Year

On April 17, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiajun held a regular press conference. Guo emphasized that China consistently opposes illegal unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law and are not authorized by the United Nations Security Council, as well as the abuse of extraterritorial jurisdiction. The cooperation between China and Venezuela is protected by international law and the laws of both countries, and China's legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be safeguarded. (The Paper)

[US Eases Financial Sanctions on Venezuela but Prohibits Transactions with Chinese Companies, Foreign Ministry Responds]On April 17, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiajun held a regular press conference. Guo emphasized that China consistently opposes illegal unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law and are not authorized by the United Nations Security Council, as well as the abuse of extraterritorial jurisdiction. The cooperation between China and Venezuela is protected by international law and the laws of both countries, and China's legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be safeguarded. (The Paper)

US Eases Financial Sanctions on Venezuela but Prohibits Transactions with Chinese Companies, Foreign Ministry Responds

1. U.S. Republicans move to take regulatory power over stablecoins from Gensler, SEC;
2. Visa is hiring engineers for crypto product roadmap;
3. Over 41.53 million RON will be unlocked this week, worth about $45.35 million;
4. 153 early-stage Web3/crypto companies raised over $986 million in Q1;
5. One week after upgrade in Shanghai, weekly deposit volume of Ethereum was close to 540,000 ETH.

Detail

【Huobi Breaking News】1. U.S. Republicans move to take regulatory power over stablecoins from Gensler, SEC;
2. Visa is hiring engineers for crypto product roadmap;
3. Over 41.53 million RON will be unlocked this week, worth about $45.35 million;
4. 153 early-stage Web3/crypto companies raised over $986 million in Q1;
5. One week after upgrade in Shanghai, weekly deposit volume of Ethereum was close to 540,000 ETH.

Huobi Breaking News

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edge soared to 1.2742 USDT, a new high with a 24-hour increase of 13.45%. It currently trades at 1.1689 USDT on HTX.

Huobi Breaking News

Isenção de responsabilidade：O conteúdo acima não representa as posições da HTX.，A HTX não faz quaisquer recomendações de negociação.。

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