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On April 12, following a brief period of ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East took a sharp turn over the weekend. The 21-hour negotiations between the US and Iran ended without an agreement, as Iran rejected the US's proposed clause of 'no development of nuclear weapons.' US Vice President Vance announced the end of the dialogue but left room for interpretation. The two-week pause on attacks announced by Trump is nearing its end, with unclear next steps. Meanwhile, a US destroyer claimed to have completed its first post-war passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran officially denied, indicating that the information warfare between the two sides continues. Next week, geopolitical factors will once again dominate market sentiment, with every piece of news regarding the Strait of Hormuz potentially triggering asset price movements. In addition to geopolitical issues, the macroeconomic calendar next week will focus on two main clues: first, a series of statements from Federal Reserve officials coinciding with the release of the Beige Book, providing policy signals to the market; second, the US March PPI, to be released on Tuesday, will be a key data point for measuring the extent to which energy price shocks are transmitted to production costs. Additionally, banking giants such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the first quarter earnings season. Key event timings are as follows: Tuesday at 20:30, US March PPI year-on-year and month-on-month; Wednesday at 00:15, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a panel discussion at the Semafor World Economic Conference; Wednesday at 00:45, Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum; Wednesday at 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat; Thursday at 01:40, Fed Governor Bowman speaks; Thursday at 02:00, the Fed releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 and the April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; Thursday at 20:35, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; Thursday TBD, the European Central Bank releases the minutes from the March 19 monetary policy meeting, and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting takes place. The March PPI data to be released by the US on Tuesday will be the first key report quantifying the extent to which the energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict penetrate upstream production costs. Commerzbank economists have clearly warned that the transmission effect of energy prices on non-energy goods 'may change quickly,' and if the PPI exceeds expectations, it will further compress the Fed's rate cut window—currently, the market has almost ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year. Next week, US stocks will officially enter the first quarter earnings season for 2026, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reporting their results first, followed by tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix releasing their data in succession. This earnings season is seen as a critical window for testing corporate profit resilience, the sustainability of AI demand, and the impact of the macroeconomic environment.

[Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Geopolitical Risks Resurface as US-Iran Negotiations Fail, Fed Officials Speak Out]On April 12, following a brief period of ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East took a sharp turn over the weekend. The 21-hour negotiations between the US and Iran ended without an agreement, as Iran rejected the US's proposed clause of 'no development of nuclear weapons.' US Vice President Vance announced the end of the dialogue but left room for interpretation. The two-week pause on attacks announced by Trump is nearing its end, with unclear next steps. Meanwhile, a US destroyer claimed to have completed its first post-war passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran officially denied, indicating that the information warfare between the two sides continues. Next week, geopolitical factors will once again dominate market sentiment, with every piece of news regarding the Strait of Hormuz potentially triggering asset price movements. In addition to geopolitical issues, the macroeconomic calendar next week will focus on two main clues: first, a series of statements from Federal Reserve officials coinciding with the release of the Beige Book, providing policy signals to the market; second, the US March PPI, to be released on Tuesday, will be a key data point for measuring the extent to which energy price shocks are transmitted to production costs. Additionally, banking giants such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the first quarter earnings season. Key event timings are as follows: Tuesday at 20:30, US March PPI year-on-year and month-on-month; Wednesday at 00:15, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a panel discussion at the Semafor World Economic Conference; Wednesday at 00:45, Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum; Wednesday at 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat; Thursday at 01:40, Fed Governor Bowman speaks; Thursday at 02:00, the Fed releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 and the April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; Thursday at 20:35, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; Thursday TBD, the European Central Bank releases the minutes from the March 19 monetary policy meeting, and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting takes place. The March PPI data to be released by the US on Tuesday will be the first key report quantifying the extent to which the energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict penetrate upstream production costs. Commerzbank economists have clearly warned that the transmission effect of energy prices on non-energy goods 'may change quickly,' and if the PPI exceeds expectations, it will further compress the Fed's rate cut window—currently, the market has almost ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year. Next week, US stocks will officially enter the first quarter earnings season for 2026, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reporting their results first, followed by tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix releasing their data in succession. This earnings season is seen as a critical window for testing corporate profit resilience, the sustainability of AI demand, and the impact of the macroeconomic environment.

Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Geopolitical Risks Resurface as US-Iran Negotiations Fail, Fed Officials Speak Out

On April 12, U.S. President Trump shared an article titled 'If Iran Does Not Compromise, the President Holds the “Trump Card”: Naval Blockade' and reposted the title. The article states, 'If Iran refuses to accept the final agreement proposed by the U.S. on Saturday, Trump could choose to bomb Iran back to the “Stone Age” as he has vowed. Alternatively, he may once again adopt the (naval) blockade strategy that was previously successful in Venezuela.'

[Iran Negotiations Face Uncertainty as Trump Hints at 'Naval Blockade' Measures]On April 12, U.S. President Trump shared an article titled 'If Iran Does Not Compromise, the President Holds the “Trump Card”: Naval Blockade' and reposted the title. The article states, 'If Iran refuses to accept the final agreement proposed by the U.S. on Saturday, Trump could choose to bomb Iran back to the “Stone Age” as he has vowed. Alternatively, he may once again adopt the (naval) blockade strategy that was previously successful in Venezuela.'

Iran Negotiations Face Uncertainty as Trump Hints at 'Naval Blockade' Measures

On April 12, Al Jazeera reported, citing diplomatic sources from Pakistan, that Pakistan has proposed conducting joint patrols in the Strait of Hormuz. This information has not yet been further confirmed. (CCTV International News)

[Pakistan Reportedly Proposes Joint Patrols in Hormuz]On April 12, Al Jazeera reported, citing diplomatic sources from Pakistan, that Pakistan has proposed conducting joint patrols in the Strait of Hormuz. This information has not yet been further confirmed. (CCTV International News)

Pakistan Reportedly Proposes Joint Patrols in Hormuz

On April 12, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari stated that both the US and Iran must continue to honor their ceasefire commitments. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Pakistan's Foreign Minister: US and Iran Must Continue to Honor Ceasefire Commitment]On April 12, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari stated that both the US and Iran must continue to honor their ceasefire commitments. (Xinhua News Agency)

Pakistan's Foreign Minister: US and Iran Must Continue to Honor Ceasefire Commitment

On April 12, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran is not in a hurry to negotiate with the United States, citing informed sources. It is claimed that Iran has made reasonable proposals during negotiations, and now 'the ball is in the U.S. court,' urging the U.S. to take a pragmatic view of the issues at hand. The source also stated that the U.S. government has been making mistakes in negotiation decisions, similar to its errors in wartime decision-making. Iran is not in a rush to achieve results; as long as the U.S. does not agree to a reasonable deal, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not change. Currently, the time and place for the next round of negotiations have not been determined.

[Iran Not in a Hurry to Negotiate with the U.S.]On April 12, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran is not in a hurry to negotiate with the United States, citing informed sources. It is claimed that Iran has made reasonable proposals during negotiations, and now 'the ball is in the U.S. court,' urging the U.S. to take a pragmatic view of the issues at hand. The source also stated that the U.S. government has been making mistakes in negotiation decisions, similar to its errors in wartime decision-making. Iran is not in a rush to achieve results; as long as the U.S. does not agree to a reasonable deal, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not change. Currently, the time and place for the next round of negotiations have not been determined.

Iran Not in a Hurry to Negotiate with the U.S.

On April 12, Iranian media reported that a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the Iran-U.S. negotiations were held "after 40 days of imposed war and in an atmosphere filled with distrust and suspicion." This round of negotiations was the longest in recent years, lasting a total of 24 to 25 hours. Contacts and consultations between Iran, Pakistan, and other regional partners will continue. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Iranian Foreign Ministry: Contacts and Consultations with Iran, Pakistan, and Others Will Continue]On April 12, Iranian media reported that a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the Iran-U.S. negotiations were held "after 40 days of imposed war and in an atmosphere filled with distrust and suspicion." This round of negotiations was the longest in recent years, lasting a total of 24 to 25 hours. Contacts and consultations between Iran, Pakistan, and other regional partners will continue. (Xinhua News Agency)

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Contacts and Consultations with Iran, Pakistan, and Others Will Continue

On April 12, Iranian media reported that the Iranian delegation has left Pakistan. (CCTV News)

[Iranian Delegation Leaves Pakistan]On April 12, Iranian media reported that the Iranian delegation has left Pakistan. (CCTV News)

Iranian Delegation Leaves Pakistan

On April 12, Iranian media reported that the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that there should not be expectations of reaching an agreement in a single negotiation from the outset. The current negotiations have introduced new topics, such as the Strait of Hormuz and regional issues. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: No Expectations for Agreement in One Negotiation]On April 12, Iranian media reported that the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that there should not be expectations of reaching an agreement in a single negotiation from the outset. The current negotiations have introduced new topics, such as the Strait of Hormuz and regional issues. (Xinhua News Agency)

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: No Expectations for Agreement in One Negotiation

On April 12, according to a report by the Tasnim News Agency, the time, location, and agenda for the next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States have not yet been announced. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Next Round of US-Iran Negotiations Time, Location, and Agenda Not Yet Announced]On April 12, according to a report by the Tasnim News Agency, the time, location, and agenda for the next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States have not yet been announced. (Xinhua News Agency)

Next Round of US-Iran Negotiations Time, Location, and Agenda Not Yet Announced

According to The Block, members of the U.S. House and Senate have begun working together on a bill to create new market structure rules around digital assets. The talks come amidst a regulatory crackdown on the industry by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Both the enforcement actions and top-level recommendations for new laws to govern digital assets were part of an agenda released by the Biden administration last year. The markets effort is running in parallel to another major effort to advance a bipartisan framework for stablecoins. Details of the Republican-led crypto market effort remain under negotiation. The goal is to introduce it this spring or early summer, and that it and a stablecoins bill would reach bipartisan consensus in the closely divided chambers of Congress, as well as final sign off from President Joe Biden, and provide more rules specific to digital assets.

Detail

【U.S. House and Senate begin working together on a bill to create new market structure rules around digital assets】According to The Block, members of the U.S. House and Senate have begun working together on a bill to create new market structure rules around digital assets. The talks come amidst a regulatory crackdown on the industry by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Both the enforcement actions and top-level recommendations for new laws to govern digital assets were part of an agenda released by the Biden administration last year. The markets effort is running in parallel to another major effort to advance a bipartisan framework for stablecoins. Details of the Republican-led crypto market effort remain under negotiation. The goal is to introduce it this spring or early summer, and that it and a stablecoins bill would reach bipartisan consensus in the closely divided chambers of Congress, as well as final sign off from President Joe Biden, and provide more rules specific to digital assets.

U.S. House and Senate begin working together on a bill to create new market structure rules around digital assets

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Article

U.S. House and Senate begin working together on a bill to create new market structure rules around digital assets

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