Bitcoin bears well positioned for Friday's $2.5 billion options expiry

12/28 14:20

According to Cointelegraph, below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Dec. 30 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit: Between $15,000 and $16,000: 700 calls vs. 22,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $340 million. Between $16,000 and $17,000: 2,000 calls vs. 16,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $240 million. Between $17,000 and $18,000: 7,500 calls vs. 13,600 puts. Bears remain in control, profiting $110 million. Between $18,000 and $19,000: 12,100 calls vs. 11,300 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears. This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies. Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Dec. 30 to flip the table and avoid a potential $340 million loss. However, that movement seems complicated considering the ongoing pressure for U.S. regulation and insolvency fear, including the biggest exchanges, despite the recent proof of reserves effort. Considering the above, the most probable scenario for Dec. 30 expiry is the $15,000-to-$17,000 range providing a decent win for bears.
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