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On April 4, the Oxford Economics Institute stated that the employment figures for March in the U.S. greatly overestimate the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data also reflects a decline in both the labor force and household employment. With the impact of the Iran war on actual economic activity, job growth is expected to slow down. The war's immediate effect on inflation is evident, but the negative impacts on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. The Oxford Economics Institute's baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will overlook the one-time shock of rising oil prices and cut rates twice this year to guard against any potential weakness in the labor market.

[Institution: Fed May Cut Rates Twice This Year to Support Labor Market]On April 4, the Oxford Economics Institute stated that the employment figures for March in the U.S. greatly overestimate the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data also reflects a decline in both the labor force and household employment. With the impact of the Iran war on actual economic activity, job growth is expected to slow down. The war's immediate effect on inflation is evident, but the negative impacts on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. The Oxford Economics Institute's baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will overlook the one-time shock of rising oil prices and cut rates twice this year to guard against any potential weakness in the labor market.

Institution: Fed May Cut Rates Twice This Year to Support Labor Market

On April 4, the Wall Street Journal reported that Qatar has refused to act as a key mediator for a potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement, complicating efforts to find a way forward in negotiations, according to officials and mediators familiar with the situation. Sources revealed that last week, Qatar informed US officials that it had no intention of playing a key role or leading efforts in the mediation process. Mediators stated earlier on Friday that the latest round of efforts led by Pakistan and regional countries to facilitate a US-Iran ceasefire has reached a stalemate. They noted that Iran has formally informed mediators that it is unwilling to meet with US officials in Islamabad in the coming days, stating that US demands are unacceptable. Mediators also mentioned that Turkey and Egypt are still working to find solutions and are considering new meeting locations, including Doha, the capital of Qatar, or Istanbul, while also contemplating new proposals to break the deadlock. Additionally, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources indicated that Iran has rejected a US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire.

[Stalemate in US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations as Iran Refuses Meetings and Qatar Declines Mediation Role]On April 4, the Wall Street Journal reported that Qatar has refused to act as a key mediator for a potential US-Iran ceasefire agreement, complicating efforts to find a way forward in negotiations, according to officials and mediators familiar with the situation. Sources revealed that last week, Qatar informed US officials that it had no intention of playing a key role or leading efforts in the mediation process. Mediators stated earlier on Friday that the latest round of efforts led by Pakistan and regional countries to facilitate a US-Iran ceasefire has reached a stalemate. They noted that Iran has formally informed mediators that it is unwilling to meet with US officials in Islamabad in the coming days, stating that US demands are unacceptable. Mediators also mentioned that Turkey and Egypt are still working to find solutions and are considering new meeting locations, including Doha, the capital of Qatar, or Istanbul, while also contemplating new proposals to break the deadlock. Additionally, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources indicated that Iran has rejected a US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire.

Stalemate in US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations as Iran Refuses Meetings and Qatar Declines Mediation Role

On April 4, local time Friday, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of the District of Columbia rejected the Justice Department's request to rehear the ruling in the Powell criminal case, which previously blocked subpoenas issued in the criminal investigation involving Powell. In his ruling on March 13, Boasberg noted that the subpoena issued to the Federal Reserve Board last January was made for improper purposes, aimed at forcing Powell to agree to Trump's demands for a rapid interest rate cut or resign. The subpoena for Powell was issued by Washington D.C. Chief Federal Prosecutor Jeanine Pirro, a staunch supporter of Trump, who has pledged to continue the investigation and stated that her office is prepared to appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Sources indicate that senior officials at the Justice Department support this appeal decision. This appeal could delay the confirmation of Kevin Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee, has criticized the investigation into Powell and vowed to continue blocking Walsh's nomination during the appeal process.

[US Judge Denies Rehearing of Powell Case, Appeal May Delay Walsh's Nomination Confirmation]On April 4, local time Friday, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of the District of Columbia rejected the Justice Department's request to rehear the ruling in the Powell criminal case, which previously blocked subpoenas issued in the criminal investigation involving Powell. In his ruling on March 13, Boasberg noted that the subpoena issued to the Federal Reserve Board last January was made for improper purposes, aimed at forcing Powell to agree to Trump's demands for a rapid interest rate cut or resign. The subpoena for Powell was issued by Washington D.C. Chief Federal Prosecutor Jeanine Pirro, a staunch supporter of Trump, who has pledged to continue the investigation and stated that her office is prepared to appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Sources indicate that senior officials at the Justice Department support this appeal decision. This appeal could delay the confirmation of Kevin Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee, has criticized the investigation into Powell and vowed to continue blocking Walsh's nomination during the appeal process.

US Judge Denies Rehearing of Powell Case, Appeal May Delay Walsh's Nomination Confirmation

On April 4, a knowledgeable source revealed that the U.S. proposed a temporary 48-hour ceasefire to Iran through a friendly country on the 1st of this month. The Iranian side assessed that the U.S. had previously misjudged Iran's military capabilities, leading to significant difficulties for U.S. forces in the region after the escalation of the situation, prompting the U.S. to make this suggestion. The source pointed out that Iran did not respond in writing to the U.S. ceasefire proposal but instead made a 'real-time response' by continuing heavy artillery strikes on the battlefield. The source disclosed that after Iranian strikes targeted U.S. equipment depots on Bubiyan Island in Kuwait, U.S. diplomatic efforts to seek a ceasefire significantly intensified.

[U.S. Proposed 48-Hour Ceasefire, Iran Responds with Battlefield Actions]On April 4, a knowledgeable source revealed that the U.S. proposed a temporary 48-hour ceasefire to Iran through a friendly country on the 1st of this month. The Iranian side assessed that the U.S. had previously misjudged Iran's military capabilities, leading to significant difficulties for U.S. forces in the region after the escalation of the situation, prompting the U.S. to make this suggestion. The source pointed out that Iran did not respond in writing to the U.S. ceasefire proposal but instead made a 'real-time response' by continuing heavy artillery strikes on the battlefield. The source disclosed that after Iranian strikes targeted U.S. equipment depots on Bubiyan Island in Kuwait, U.S. diplomatic efforts to seek a ceasefire significantly intensified.

U.S. Proposed 48-Hour Ceasefire, Iran Responds with Battlefield Actions

On April 4, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal on April 3, Iran has officially informed mediators that it is unwilling to meet with US officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the coming days, and has clearly stated that the US's demands regarding a ceasefire are unacceptable. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Iran Officially Responds to Mediators: Unwilling to Meet US Officials in Pakistan in Coming Days]On April 4, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal on April 3, Iran has officially informed mediators that it is unwilling to meet with US officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the coming days, and has clearly stated that the US's demands regarding a ceasefire are unacceptable. (Xinhua News Agency)

Iran Officially Responds to Mediators: Unwilling to Meet US Officials in Pakistan in Coming Days

HTX data showed that SOL fell below 80  USDT and is now at 79.9923 USDT, with a increase of 0.48% in 24H.

[SOL fell below 80  USDT] HTX data showed that SOL fell below 80  USDT and is now at 79.9923 USDT, with a increase of 0.48% in 24H.

SOL fell below 80  USDT

On April 4th, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the economy does not need to create as many jobs as before to maintain the same employment-to-population ratio. In this environment, monthly hiring data can no longer most accurately reflect the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate may be a better measure. She said, "Ratios and indicators such as the employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate, quit rate, or hiring rate can reflect changes in the size of the labor force, thus more clearly reflecting the health of the labor market." (JIN10)

[Fed's Daly: Focus on Employment-to-Population Ratio, Not Job Data]On April 4th, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the economy does not need to create as many jobs as before to maintain the same employment-to-population ratio. In this environment, monthly hiring data can no longer most accurately reflect the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate may be a better measure. She said, "Ratios and indicators such as the employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate, quit rate, or hiring rate can reflect changes in the size of the labor force, thus more clearly reflecting the health of the labor market." (JIN10)

Fed's Daly: Focus on Employment-to-Population Ratio, Not Job Data

On April 4th, the Public Relations Department of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on the 3rd, announcing that Iran carried out the 93rd wave of attacks in a large-scale military operation codenamed 'True Promise-4' on the afternoon of that day. The statement indicated that Israeli military assembly centers and operational support bases located in Western Galilee, Haifa, Karkana, and Kiryat Shmona were precisely targeted. It was introduced that this military operation was jointly conducted by the IRGC and regional resistance forces, utilizing a variety of weapons and equipment including solid and liquid-fuel missiles, long-range guided missiles, and suicide drones. The Iranian side emphasized that such attacks will continue, and specific progress and subsequent results of the operation will be promptly reported to the public. (CCTV)

[Iran Launches 93rd Wave of 'True Promise-4' Operation]On April 4th, the Public Relations Department of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on the 3rd, announcing that Iran carried out the 93rd wave of attacks in a large-scale military operation codenamed 'True Promise-4' on the afternoon of that day. The statement indicated that Israeli military assembly centers and operational support bases located in Western Galilee, Haifa, Karkana, and Kiryat Shmona were precisely targeted. It was introduced that this military operation was jointly conducted by the IRGC and regional resistance forces, utilizing a variety of weapons and equipment including solid and liquid-fuel missiles, long-range guided missiles, and suicide drones. The Iranian side emphasized that such attacks will continue, and specific progress and subsequent results of the operation will be promptly reported to the public. (CCTV)

Iran Launches 93rd Wave of 'True Promise-4' Operation

On April 4, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is currently reported at 0.5%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is at 99.5%.

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in April at 99.5%]On April 4, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is currently reported at 0.5%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is at 99.5%.

Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in April at 99.5%

CoinShares report shows that the net inflow of digital asset investment products last week was $42.3 million, of which the net inflow of Bitcoin investment products was $18.8 million. There was a net inflow of $2.5 million in Ethereum investment products, and a net inflow of $12.6 million in investment products shorting Bitcoin.

Detail

【CoinShares: Net inflow of digital asset investment products last week was $42.3 million】CoinShares report shows that the net inflow of digital asset investment products last week was $42.3 million, of which the net inflow of Bitcoin investment products was $18.8 million. There was a net inflow of $2.5 million in Ethereum investment products, and a net inflow of $12.6 million in investment products shorting Bitcoin.

CoinShares: Net inflow of digital asset investment products last week was $42.3 million

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CoinShares: Net inflow of digital asset investment products last week was $42.3 million

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