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On July 14, a Bank of America fund manager survey showed that 83% of investors expect the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the November US midterm elections. (Jin Shi)

[Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: 83% of Investors Expect No Fed Rate Hike Before November US Midterm Elections]On July 14, a Bank of America fund manager survey showed that 83% of investors expect the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the November US midterm elections. (Jin Shi)

Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: 83% of Investors Expect No Fed Rate Hike Before November US Midterm Elections

On July 14, CoinDesk reported that on July 10, a Bitcoin solo miner used a Bitaxe device worth about $150 with a hash rate of about 1 TH/s. After running for only 8 hours, they successfully mined Bitcoin block 957,382, earning 3.1382 BTC (worth about $200,000). The probability of this happening is equivalent to once every 18,000 years.

[A Solo Miner Mined $200,000 Bitcoin Using a $150 Device Last Week]On July 14, CoinDesk reported that on July 10, a Bitcoin solo miner used a Bitaxe device worth about $150 with a hash rate of about 1 TH/s. After running for only 8 hours, they successfully mined Bitcoin block 957,382, earning 3.1382 BTC (worth about $200,000). The probability of this happening is equivalent to once every 18,000 years.

A Solo Miner Mined $200,000 Bitcoin Using a $150 Device Last Week

On July 14, the latest research report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent sharp volatility in global tech stocks is mainly due to liquidity deleveraging triggered by high-leverage trading, rather than a deterioration in semiconductor industry fundamentals. Goldman Sachs stated that South Korea's newly launched single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs have amplified market volatility. Multiple leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix previously saw single-day declines of over 30%. To maintain leverage ratios, funds were forced to sell underlying stocks, creating a liquidity cascade of "price decline—forced selling—further decline." Goldman Sachs estimates that about 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Meanwhile, Leuthold Group pointed out that U.S. margin debt has grown by approximately 54% over the past 12 months, entering a historically high range. Leveraged funds are highly concentrated in AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile. However, Goldman Sachs believes the semiconductor industry has not yet seen a cyclical peak. The firm noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised downward. Due to limited capacity expansion for memory chips, the supply tightness may persist until the second half of 2028. The current pullback appears more like a position adjustment rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals.

[Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor Fundamentals Still Supported, Leveraged ETFs Amplify Tech Stock Volatility]On July 14, the latest research report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent sharp volatility in global tech stocks is mainly due to liquidity deleveraging triggered by high-leverage trading, rather than a deterioration in semiconductor industry fundamentals. Goldman Sachs stated that South Korea's newly launched single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs have amplified market volatility. Multiple leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix previously saw single-day declines of over 30%. To maintain leverage ratios, funds were forced to sell underlying stocks, creating a liquidity cascade of "price decline—forced selling—further decline." Goldman Sachs estimates that about 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Meanwhile, Leuthold Group pointed out that U.S. margin debt has grown by approximately 54% over the past 12 months, entering a historically high range. Leveraged funds are highly concentrated in AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile. However, Goldman Sachs believes the semiconductor industry has not yet seen a cyclical peak. The firm noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised downward. Due to limited capacity expansion for memory chips, the supply tightness may persist until the second half of 2028. The current pullback appears more like a position adjustment rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor Fundamentals Still Supported, Leveraged ETFs Amplify Tech Stock Volatility

On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

[Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike]On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike

On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

[Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked]On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked

On July 14, traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate hike, fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by September. UK interest rate futures show that the market expects the Bank of England to tighten policy by about 50 basis points by December, compared with an expectation of about 40 basis points on Monday. (Jin Shi)

[Traders Increase Bank of England Rate Hike Bets, Fully Price in 25bp Hike by September]On July 14, traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate hike, fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by September. UK interest rate futures show that the market expects the Bank of England to tighten policy by about 50 basis points by December, compared with an expectation of about 40 basis points on Monday. (Jin Shi)

Traders Increase Bank of England Rate Hike Bets, Fully Price in 25bp Hike by September

On July 14, gold prices fell about 25% from their historic highs earlier this year, primarily pressured by high interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising energy prices, which increased holding costs. Short-term pressure is evident. However, many market participants believe that this adjustment has not changed gold's long-term investment logic. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott, stated that the recent decline in gold was mainly driven by a strong dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and concentrated liquidation by quantitative funds. He believes that the current decline in gold prices has significantly outpaced the actual increases in the dollar and short-term interest rates, indicating that the bearish factors of high interest rates and a strong dollar have been largely digested by the market. Paul Wong pointed out that a short-term strong dollar often suppresses gold performance, but in the long run, the stronger the dollar, the greater the global impetus to seek alternative reserve assets, which in turn helps enhance gold's strategic position as a neutral reserve asset. As global fiscal deficits expand, central banks continue to increase gold holdings, and geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, gold is gradually evolving from a simple inflation hedge tool into a currency hedge, reserve asset, and even a potential international financial collateral. He believes that gold and the dollar may strengthen simultaneously in the long term due to different logics: the dollar benefits from its core position in the global financing system, while gold benefits from the trend of diversification in global reserve assets. However, on a cyclical level, gold prices still tend to maintain a negative correlation with the dollar index.

[Institution: Strong Dollar Suppresses Gold Price in Short Term, but May Further Strengthen Gold's Long-Term Reserve Asset Status]On July 14, gold prices fell about 25% from their historic highs earlier this year, primarily pressured by high interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising energy prices, which increased holding costs. Short-term pressure is evident. However, many market participants believe that this adjustment has not changed gold's long-term investment logic. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott, stated that the recent decline in gold was mainly driven by a strong dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and concentrated liquidation by quantitative funds. He believes that the current decline in gold prices has significantly outpaced the actual increases in the dollar and short-term interest rates, indicating that the bearish factors of high interest rates and a strong dollar have been largely digested by the market. Paul Wong pointed out that a short-term strong dollar often suppresses gold performance, but in the long run, the stronger the dollar, the greater the global impetus to seek alternative reserve assets, which in turn helps enhance gold's strategic position as a neutral reserve asset. As global fiscal deficits expand, central banks continue to increase gold holdings, and geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, gold is gradually evolving from a simple inflation hedge tool into a currency hedge, reserve asset, and even a potential international financial collateral. He believes that gold and the dollar may strengthen simultaneously in the long term due to different logics: the dollar benefits from its core position in the global financing system, while gold benefits from the trend of diversification in global reserve assets. However, on a cyclical level, gold prices still tend to maintain a negative correlation with the dollar index.

Institution: Strong Dollar Suppresses Gold Price in Short Term, but May Further Strengthen Gold's Long-Term Reserve Asset Status

On July 14, BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund BUIDL's on-chain asset management scale reached approximately $2.93 billion, continuously hitting new all-time highs, reflecting sustained growth in institutional investor demand for tokenized U.S. Treasury products. Currently, BUIDL has been deployed on multiple public chains including Ethereum, Avalanche, and Solana, with Securitize handling tokenization issuance and BNY Mellon providing custody. Data shows that Ethereum remains BUIDL's largest deployment network, with a locked-up scale exceeding $1 billion; Avalanche has seen the fastest recent growth, with its asset scale doubling to about $900 million in a single week in July; while Solana's on-chain scale exceeds $550 million. Reports indicate that BUIDL primarily invests in U.S. Treasuries, repurchase agreements, and cash equivalents, maintaining a net asset value of $1 per share and offering an annualized yield of approximately 3%-5%. As more DeFi protocols use BUIDL as collateral and liquidity assets, its application scenarios are expanding from institutional cash management to on-chain financial infrastructure. Market analysts believe that BUIDL's rapid expansion is becoming an important case of traditional finance integrating with blockchain and is driving the continued development of the global tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market.

[BlackRock's On-Chain Tokenized Assets Reach $2.93 Billion, BUIDL Accelerates Expansion to Multi-Chain Ecosystem]On July 14, BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund BUIDL's on-chain asset management scale reached approximately $2.93 billion, continuously hitting new all-time highs, reflecting sustained growth in institutional investor demand for tokenized U.S. Treasury products. Currently, BUIDL has been deployed on multiple public chains including Ethereum, Avalanche, and Solana, with Securitize handling tokenization issuance and BNY Mellon providing custody. Data shows that Ethereum remains BUIDL's largest deployment network, with a locked-up scale exceeding $1 billion; Avalanche has seen the fastest recent growth, with its asset scale doubling to about $900 million in a single week in July; while Solana's on-chain scale exceeds $550 million. Reports indicate that BUIDL primarily invests in U.S. Treasuries, repurchase agreements, and cash equivalents, maintaining a net asset value of $1 per share and offering an annualized yield of approximately 3%-5%. As more DeFi protocols use BUIDL as collateral and liquidity assets, its application scenarios are expanding from institutional cash management to on-chain financial infrastructure. Market analysts believe that BUIDL's rapid expansion is becoming an important case of traditional finance integrating with blockchain and is driving the continued development of the global tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market.

BlackRock's On-Chain Tokenized Assets Reach $2.93 Billion, BUIDL Accelerates Expansion to Multi-Chain Ecosystem

On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States should control and operate the Strait of Hormuz, and considered charging transit vessels a fee equivalent to 20% of the value of their cargo to cover the cost of maintaining security in the strait. At the same time, Trump said the U.S. may continue military action against Iran, as U.S. forces launched airstrikes on Iran for the third consecutive night. Analysts pointed out that with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz yet to return to normal and the U.S. in its summer travel peak, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and commercial crude oil inventories are likely to continue declining, further supporting international oil price increases. As of the week ending July 3, the U.S. SPR had fallen to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, only slightly above the recommended safety floor of approximately 250 million barrels. Market participants believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period, even with relatively ample domestic crude oil supply in the U.S., global crude oil benchmark prices could continue to rise, thereby pushing up inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rate policies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that any party ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated, but considered the 20% fee rate too high.

[Trump Proposes Strengthened Control of Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Since 1983]On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States should control and operate the Strait of Hormuz, and considered charging transit vessels a fee equivalent to 20% of the value of their cargo to cover the cost of maintaining security in the strait. At the same time, Trump said the U.S. may continue military action against Iran, as U.S. forces launched airstrikes on Iran for the third consecutive night. Analysts pointed out that with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz yet to return to normal and the U.S. in its summer travel peak, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and commercial crude oil inventories are likely to continue declining, further supporting international oil price increases. As of the week ending July 3, the U.S. SPR had fallen to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, only slightly above the recommended safety floor of approximately 250 million barrels. Market participants believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period, even with relatively ample domestic crude oil supply in the U.S., global crude oil benchmark prices could continue to rise, thereby pushing up inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rate policies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that any party ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated, but considered the 20% fee rate too high.

Trump Proposes Strengthened Control of Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Since 1983

The development of an official digital version of the U.S. dollar could help safeguard its global dominance as other countries issue their own, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, weighing in with generally positive remarks on a hot-button topic at the central bank that has left policymakers divided.
"As we consider feedback...we will be thinking not just about the current state of the world, but also how the global financial system might evolve over the next 5 to 10 years," Powell added.

Detail

【Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy】The development of an official digital version of the U.S. dollar could help safeguard its global dominance as other countries issue their own, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, weighing in with generally positive remarks on a hot-button topic at the central bank that has left policymakers divided.
"As we consider feedback...we will be thinking not just about the current state of the world, but also how the global financial system might evolve over the next 5 to 10 years," Powell added.

Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy

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Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy

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