Serenity: Photonics and CW Lasers as Key Investment Themes for AI Infrastructure

06/23 03:46

On June 23, 'White Hair' Serenity posted on social media: I believe the combination of photonics and the bottleneck of CW lasers is top-notch. It's like the market has short-term amnesia, forgetting how LITE has risen from $3 billion to over $65 billion from 2024 to now. This is due to NVDA causing an EML bottleneck and forcing architectural changes. We are indeed seeing the same situation now—AMD and other cloud service providers are aggressively buying up remaining shares through long-term agreements for large CW lasers and optical components. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that by 2028, the optical TAM will be approximately 9-10 times, reaching $154 billion; while the CPO TAM has grown from nearly zero to $91 billion in just two and a half years. Don't let a month's trading fluctuations make you disappear into thin air. AAOI has a market cap of about $13 billion, SIVE around $3 billion, and other CW laser players appear to be very valuable strategically. In the next 1-2 years, there may be some new small trends, such as microLED or quantum dots, and we will see the same thing replayed. I believe Sumitomo's predictions regarding CW laser shares and silicon photonics becoming mainstream/dominant architecture should be correct. Personally, I am just focused on that bottleneck, as you can see in stocks like SOI, SOI, TSEM, SIVE, and others.
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