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HTX Year-End Carnival: 150,000 USDT Over 28 Days!比特币价格在去年12月形成的9.4万-9.6万美元区间高点遭遇强劲阻力，直接限制了2026年1月的反弹势头。回顾年初表现，2026年初的复苏本以超10亿美元的强劲机构资金流入为鲜明标志——正是这些资金的进场，推动BTC价格从8.75万美元一路攀升至9.47万美元的关键位置。 然而好景不长，截至发稿时，

HTX Year-End Carnival: 150,000 USDT Over 28 Days!

比特币价格在去年12月形成的9.4万-9.6万美元区间高点遭遇强劲阻力，直接限制了2026年1月的反弹势头。回顾年初表现，2026年初的复苏本以超10亿美元的强劲机构资金流入为鲜明标志——正是这些资金的进场，推动BTC价格从8.75万美元一路攀升至9.47万美元的关键位置。

然而好景不长，截至发稿时，多头始终未能突破去年12月形成的横盘整理结构。更严峻的是，受流动性追逐行为影响，比特币价格已回落至9万美元关口。据交易员Cryp Nuejo预测，市场甚至可能出现向8万美元低点的深度回调，短期下行压力不容忽视。

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分析师对BTC复苏的核心看法

尽管短期回调降低了比特币快速突破10万美元心理关口的概率，但机构玩家似乎正在暗中加大对这一关键价位的布局力度，为后续行情蓄力。

Wintermute场外市场负责人Jake Ostrovskis透露，近期的仓位布局已显现出“一季度初释然性反弹”的明确迹象。他具体表示：“看涨需求始终持续存在，昨夜市场又为2月27日到期的10万美元看涨期权，以及1月30日到期的9.8万美元看涨期权支付了1300万美元权利金。新的看涨仓位正在持续建立，当前市场方向明确预示，一季度大概率会出现释然性反弹。”

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这一表态背后，是市场预期的悄然转变——投资者重新押注比特币可能在1月或2月实现向9.8万-10万美元区间的看涨突破，而持续增长的看涨期权需求，正是这一预期最直接的体现。

除了基于期权市场的短期判断，另有多位分析师结合历史数据与资产相关性，给出了更为乐观的中长期复苏预测。

例如，21Shares加密研究策略师Matt Mena在接受AMBCrypto采访时明确指出，鉴于2025年比特币的惨淡表现，2026年市场极有可能迎来反转。他给出的核心依据是：“从历史数据来看，过去15年中，比特币从未出现过连续两年下跌的情况。”

Matt Mena进一步补充，在2025年大幅落后于其他顶级资产之后，BTC有望在2026年逆袭成为表现最佳的资产。他强调：“更关键的是，市场存在一个明确的规律——在加密资产成为年度表现最差资产的年份之后，其通常会在次年强势反弹并登顶最佳表现资产。这一模式在2014与2015年、2018与2019年，以及2022与2023年都精准应验过。”

VALR加密交易所CEO Farzam Ehsani则给出了更为激进的预测，他认为若黄金、白银的涨势完全冷却，全球避险资金将持续流入比特币市场。据其分析，比特币有望在2026年一季度攀升至13万美元的高位，而当前的横盘整固格局，恰恰可能成为后续暴涨的“跳板”。

“比特币当前在黄金、白银创下历史新高背景下的横盘走势，本质上就是‘暴风雨前的平静’。从历史经验来看，这种格局出现后，往往会迎来更广泛的加密市场反弹行情。”Farzam Ehsani补充道。

收复10万美元的概率与关键变量

需要明确的是，当前市场对3月、4月收复10万美元的预期，显著高于1月的短期预期。这一市场情绪，与前文Ostrovskis基于期权市场洞察得出的结论形成了完美呼应。

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Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan则梳理了影响比特币走势的核心变量。他表示，推动比特币上涨的关键看涨催化剂主要包括两项：一是加密行业相关法案的顺利通过，二是股票市场维持“合理的稳定走势”。反之，若出现类似2025年10月10日那样的突发性暴雷事件，将严重削弱2026年加密市场的积极前景。

最终观点

1. 部分分析师观点认为，比特币价格大概率将在1月底或2月突破关键阻力，实现向10万美元区间的有效突破。

2. 另有乐观派分析师预测，BTC有望在2026年一季度迎来爆发，创下13万美元的历史新高。



比特币价格在去年12月形成的9.4万-9.6万美元区间高点遭遇强劲阻力，直接限制了2026年1月的反

火币2025年度人物颁奖典礼

HTX Year-End Carnival: 150,000 USDT Over 28 Days!Love & Consensus: The Heart of $Broccoli 特朗普瞄准信用卡利率：这对比特币意味着什么 coinedition.com 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提议将信用卡利率上限设定为10%，此举引发了关于消费者金融的激烈辩论。他表示，此举旨在打击大型银行的不公平贷款行为。 尽管

特朗普瞄准信用卡利率：这对比特币意味着什么

coinedition.com

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提议将信用卡利率上限设定为10%，此举引发了关于消费者金融的激烈辩论。他表示，此举旨在打击大型银行的不公平贷款行为。

尽管该计划可能面临法律和政治挑战，但仍可能对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场产生影响。

政治信号重于政策

值得注意的是，特朗普通过社交媒体发布的声明并未包含有关执行或立法支持的细节。专家表示，信用卡利率上限需要国会批准。此外，银行方面表示，此举可能会限制信贷获取，并减少奖励等优惠。

因此，市场更多地将其视为政治信号，而非具体的政策。尽管如此，这一讨论本身就可能影响人们对传统金融体系的看法——而这正是加密货币发挥作用的地方。

比特币为何关注信用卡

比特币并不直接与信用卡竞争。 它不提供信贷、消费者保护或奖励。但当人们对传统金融的信任度下降或被政治化时，它往往会受到关注。政府对信用卡利率设定上限凸显了比特币的关键原则：

金融体系与政治紧密相连。

货币和信贷规则可能随时改变。

银行与政府决策息息相关。

对于比特币的支持者来说，这些观点强化了他们支持去中心化、不受任何政府控制的体系的论点。

特朗普瞄准信用卡利率：这对比特币意味着什么

B：比特币安全 + EVM兼容的混合L2

以太坊的质押队列已清空，这改变了 ETH 的交易格局。 以太坊的质押队列已清空，网络现在可以几乎实时地吸收新的验证者和退出者。 这意味着锁定 ETH 的抢购热潮暂时消退，质押正趋于稳定，而非之前的稀缺交易。 队列指的是在以太坊网络上开始或停止质押所需的时间，它既可以作为市场情绪的指标，也可以作为流动性的指标。 从某种意义上说，队列的消失是一个优势，而非缺陷，因为它证明以太坊可以处理质押流程，而无需

以太坊的质押队列已清空，这改变了 ETH 的交易格局。 以太坊的质押队列已清空，网络现在可以几乎实

Quiet ALGO Bull Setup? Dive Into Algorand’s Asymmetric Structure DailyCoin / DailyCoin Team / 2 days ago ￼ Algorand's lurking in the shadows at ~$0.13, building a unique asymmetric structure: years of

Quiet ALGO Bull Setup? Dive Into Algorand’s Asymmetric Structure

DailyCoin / DailyCoin Team / 2 days ago

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Algorand's lurking in the shadows at ~$0.13, building a unique asymmetric structure: years of pain already baked in?



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Quiet ALGO Bull Setup? Dive Into Algorand’s Asymme

B: Hybrid L2 with Bitcoin Security & EVM

Some crypto industry leaders are disappointed following reports that lawmakers might be open to the idea of banning stablecoin yields. According to reporter Sander Lutz, lawmakers are now receptive to

Some crypto industry leaders are disappointed following reports that lawmakers might be open to the idea of banning stablecoin yields.

According to reporter Sander Lutz, lawmakers are now receptive to TradFi demands to change stablecoin yield rules during bipartisan negotiations on the crypto market structure bill. The bill is scheduled for a markup on 15 January.

Reacting to the development, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz slammed the legislators, calling the update a “sad state.”

“Sad state that Congress cares more about banks margins than they do consumers! Both D’s and R’s need to ask who are they serving?”

For his part, Nic Carter, partner at crypto VC firm Castle Island Ventures, said that the sector would be better off without the bill if stablecoin rewards are restricted.

“If they want to kill stablecoin yield we might as well just let the bill die.”

Bill Hughes, a lawyer at Consensys and one of the attendees at the meeting, acknowledged potential pitfalls. However, he remains optimistic about the crypto bill.

“For what it’s worth, I left the call more bullish than I had been previously. We are close. Pitfalls, for sure. But closer than we’ve ever been. And smart people calling the game. I’m optimistic.”

What to expect from crypto bill markup
Both the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee are expected to markup their respective version of the crypto bill on 15 January. The Banking committee handles the SEC’s oversight mandate, while the Agriculture committee will cover the responsibility of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Although the bill is sponsored by Republicans, they must have Democrat buy-in to pass the committee vote before being advanced to the Senate chamber for a final floor vote.

For the Senate Banking group, the key contentious issues have been stablecoin yields, DeFi provisions, and ethics standards that seek to ban President Donald Trump’s family from the crypto sector.

Based on Carter and Novogratz’s 

Some crypto industry leaders are disappointed foll

Brev: ZK Omnichain Data Proof

HTX Year-End Carnival: 150,000 USDT Over 28 Days! Представители местных банков в США призывают законодателей устранить предполагаемые пробелы в законодательстве о стейблкоинах, предупреждая, что прогр

Представители местных банков в США призывают законодателей устранить предполагаемые пробелы в законодательстве о стейблкоинах, предупреждая, что программы, приносящие доход от криптовалют, могут отточить депозиты из местных банков. Обеспокоенность вызывает принятый прошлым летом закон GENIUS, регулирующий выпуск и использование стейблкоинов.

Местные банки предупреждают, что лазейка в процент

Brev: Платформа ZK-доказательств

HTX Year-End Carnival: 150,000 USDT Over 28 Days!Love & Consensus: The Heart of $Broccoli Consensus Hong Kong 2026 Set for February Launch Consensus Hong Kong 2026 set for February 10–12. Positioned a

Consensus Hong Kong 2026 Set for February Launch
Consensus Hong Kong 2026 set for February 10–12.

Positioned as Asia’s flagship crypto event.

Involves top crypto leaders and decision-makers.

Consensus Hong Kong 2026, organized by CoinDesk, will take place February 10-12, in Hong Kong, featuring over 100 global speakers and presenting Asia’s flagship Web3 conference.

This event signals Hong Kong's growing role as a global FinTech hub, with projected attendance of 15,000, shaping crypto's development and influencing industry trends across Asia.

The Consensus Hong Kong 2026 event is officially planned for February 10–12. It is organized by CoinDesk, focusing on global crypto adoption and innovation. CoinDesk brands it as "crypto’s Gateway to Asia."

The event will feature major industry figures such as Lily Liu, Richard Teng, and Justin Sun. They will discuss developments in blockchain technology and crypto markets. Its aim is to foster connections within the crypto ecosystem.

The Hong Kong event is expected to attract 15,000 global leaders. It is projected to stimulate local markets by engaging industry decision-makers, developers, and startups. The meeting serves as a bridge between the crypto industries of the East and West.

With a focus on Layer 1 technologies like Solana and Ethereum, the conference addresses opportunities in blockchain infrastructure. No specific financial commitments or grant programs are currently detailed on event pages.

Despite lacking on-chain data, predictions suggest significant impacts for involved chains. Attendees will explore multi-chain opportunities and institutional DeFi innovations crucial for the sector.

Potential effects include elevated trade volumes and innovations in DeFi and tokenomics. Event participation could influence future regulatory frameworks as leaders gather to address industry challenges and opportunities. The conference mirrors global trends in Web3 development.

"The global crypto landscape is evolving rapidly, and Consensus Hong Kong 2026 aims to be at the forefront of these dyn


Consensus Hong Kong 2026 Set for February Launch

BTC LINK Kaspa: Scalable L1 via GHOSTDAGBrev: ZK Omnichain Data ProofUSQD: Decentralized Multi-Chain DataTrading outcomes depend on informed decision-making and risk considerations. Access to educatio

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2025 Investment: Share Your Insights, Win 200 USDT

presenting a buying opportunity for short-term gains. Support and Resistance Levels: The recent low of $1.838 could serve as a critical support level. If TON tests this level and holds, it may offer a

SQD: Decentralized Multi-Chain Data

以太坊价格向 3300 美元迈进，机构需求收紧供应 以太坊的战略储备和 ETH ETF 持有 10.74% 的供应量（约 404 亿美元），减少了流通中的以太币数量，加剧了稀缺性。 以太坊在 2600 美元至 3300 美元附近的盘整预示着潜在的突破机会。 突破 3300 美元的阻力位将指引下一轮价格走势。 以太坊正处于下一阶段的开端，因为战略代币储备和ETH ETF合计持有总供应量的10.74%

以太坊价格向 3300 美元迈进，机构需求收紧供应 以太坊的战略储备和 ETH ETF 持有 10

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Institutions: The Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as June.

Founder of The Dark Side of the Moon: Chinese technology should not only be easy to use, but also participate in rule-making.

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A whale that went long on $310 million worth of mainstream cryptocurrencies has turned a profit into a loss, with unrealized losses exceeding $11 million.

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