Wintermute: Short-term Risk Assets May Remain Volatile, Buying Pressure Still Not Evident

On June 23, Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% this month but released clear hawkish signals. The latest dot plot shifted from indicating rate cuts to suggesting rate hikes, with the median rate forecast for 2026 rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Among the 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, and 17 believe inflation risks are skewed to the upside. The market quickly adjusted expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in December rising from 24% a month ago to 77%, indicating that the Fed is refocusing on anti-inflation measures as a core policy. On the geopolitical front, the Iran agreement, originally scheduled to be signed on June 19, was unexpectedly shelved. After Israel attacked southern Lebanon, Iran withdrew from negotiations, forcing the signing ceremony to be postponed. The rise in U.S. stock markets and the decline in oil prices were largely based on expectations of the agreement being reached, and now the market needs to reassess the previously diminished geopolitical risk premium. The cryptocurrency market has already begun to reprice risk. Although Strategy disclosed an increase of 1,587 BTC, alleviating market concerns about its selling, Wintermute believes that ETF and institutional buying have not yet shown significant signs of recovery. In the short term, market attention will shift to U.S. PCE data and the progress of Middle East negotiations; until there is an improvement in capital flows, risk assets may continue to exhibit volatility.