Morgan Stanley: AI Servers Boost Demand for High-End MLCCs, Murata Becomes Japan's Top Choice

On June 17, Morgan Stanley stated that artificial intelligence servers and data centers will drive rapid growth in demand for high-end multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs). Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has become the new preferred stock in Japan's electronic components industry due to its ability to stably mass-produce small, high-capacity products. In a report released on June 16, analysts including Shoji Sato significantly raised Murata's target price from 5,100 yen to 12,500 yen, maintaining an 'Overweight' rating and listing it as an industry Top Pick. The report noted that Murata is expected to hold a 40.8% share of the global MLCC market by 2025, leading Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global MLCC shipment value will increase from $14.67 billion in 2025 to $24.25 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.2% over the next three years. The demand for small, high-capacity, high-value products used in AI servers and data centers is expected to grow at an approximate annual compound rate of 100%. The report states that AI server motherboards require about 15,000 to 25,000 MLCCs, which is about ten times that of general servers. As the power consumption of GPUs, CPUs, and ASICs rises and operating voltages decrease, the system's requirements for transient power stability and noise suppression increase, driving MLCCs towards smaller sizes and higher capacities. Morgan Stanley believes that Murata is the most obvious beneficiary. The report points out that currently, only Murata can stably supply key specifications required for AI servers, such as 100µF in 1608 size, 47µF in 1005 size, and 10µF in 0603 size. Analysts noted that by the time competitors achieve stable mass production, Murata may have already advanced to next-generation products with smaller sizes and higher capacities. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley downgraded Taiyo Yuden's rating from 'Equal Weight' to 'Underweight,' although it raised its target price from 4,700 yen to 12,500 yen. The report stated that Taiyo Yuden's stock price has risen about 445% since 2026, with the market expecting it to benefit from high-end MLCC demand like Murata. However, Morgan Stanley believes that the profit contribution from its product portfolio improvement is relatively limited. The report also pointed out that the investment logic for MLCCs does not solely rely on price increases. The prices of the same products may gradually decline over the long term, and what truly supports profitability is the product structure upgrade driven by AI and data center demand. Morgan Stanley believes that as the proportion of high-end products increases, the profit margin gap between Murata and other MLCC manufacturers may further widen.