Bitcoin

Focuses on news, price analysis, technological evolution, and market trends within the Bitcoin ecosystem. It explores its role and influence in the global financial system.

Bitcoin’s Santa rally is dead – But 2026 could have something better in store

Bitcoin's anticipated Santa Rally failed to materialize in 2025, with the cryptocurrency struggling near $87,440. Analysts note a fractal pattern similar to the 2021 bull run top, suggesting a potential 34% drop toward $70,000 in January. The market has entered a "mini-Bart" pattern, characterized by a quiet consolidation phase after losing key support. However, this period may be building towards a potential "Supercycle" in 2026, which could bring new all-time highs, extended rallies, and significant altcoin activity. Despite fading social interest and a more mature, institutionally-driven market reducing volatility, the current stagnation may present major opportunities before the next major move.

ambcrypto12/25 23:03

Bitcoin’s Santa rally is dead – But 2026 could have something better in store

ambcrypto12/25 23:03

Why Bitcoin shorts look confident now, even as $90K looms

Despite Bitcoin's potential to reach $90K, short sellers are exhibiting strong confidence due to a significant 23% price drop in Q4 and waning institutional demand. U.S. Spot ETFs have seen consecutive daily net outflows since mid-December, while Open Interest on the CME has fallen below $10 billion for the first time since September 2024, signaling a risk-off shift. The decline is partly attributed to the breakdown of the basis trade, whose yield has dropped from 10% to around 5%, making it less attractive. Analysts project a potential drop below $80K in early 2026 if weak sentiment persists. However, a surge to $90,600 could liquidate $3 billion in leveraged shorts. Options trading indicates a range-bound market with key levels at $85K for a dip and $88K-$90K for a rally.

ambcrypto12/25 22:02

Why Bitcoin shorts look confident now, even as $90K looms

ambcrypto12/25 22:02

Bitcoin options worth $23.7B expire soon – Why traders expect fireworks

Bitcoin has been trading between $85k and $92k in December, but a record $23.7 billion options expiry on December 26th is expected to cause significant price movement. Analysts anticipate a potential 5%-7% swing, with a Max Pain Point at $95,000. Many predict a short-term dip to the $82k-$84k support level, followed by a rally toward $95k or even $100k. However, QCP Capital cautions that this holiday-driven volatility may not be sustainable and could mean-revert as liquidity returns in January.

ambcrypto12/25 21:03

Bitcoin options worth $23.7B expire soon – Why traders expect fireworks

ambcrypto12/25 21:03

Bitcoin Plunged on Christmas Eve, Loses 'Santa Rally', Set for Worst Quarterly Performance in Three Years

Bitcoin experienced a rare flash crash on Binance’s BTC/USD1 trading pair, plummeting over 70% from $87.6k to $24.1k before quickly rebounding. The incident, attributed to thin liquidity in the emerging stablecoin pair, did not affect other major trading pairs. Currently trading around $87k, Bitcoin is down over 7% year-to-date and is on track for its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022. The flash crash highlights the risks of low-liquidity trading environments, where large orders or technical issues can cause extreme short-term price deviations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has missed the typical "Santa rally," underperforming compared to traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold, which hit all-time highs. Gold has surged over 70% this year, while Bitcoin has failed to attract similar safe-haven inflows. Technical factors like falling below the 365-day moving average and significant options expiries have contributed to the stagnation. Persistent selling by long-term holders and ongoing outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—$175 million and $57 million respectively on December 24—have further dampened momentum. Analysts expect limited movement until January due to year-end risk reduction and tax-related selling.

华尔街日报12/25 20:17

Bitcoin Plunged on Christmas Eve, Loses 'Santa Rally', Set for Worst Quarterly Performance in Three Years

华尔街日报12/25 20:17

‘Extreme fear’ returns to Bitcoin – Binance’s CZ sees a reward, not a warning

Bitcoin is ending 2025 in a state of 'extreme fear' with its second-worst Q4 performance in history, declining 23%. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) views this fear as a buying opportunity, not a warning, encouraging investors to 'buy the fear' rather than extend FUD. He and historical data suggest that past periods of extreme fear, like in September 2024 and Q1 2025, were followed by significant price surges. However, analysts are split on Bitcoin's 2026 outlook, with some, like Jim Cramer, remaining bearish. Mining metrics indicate potential for a rebound if ETF demand resumes, though macro factors like the U.S. tax season could influence the recovery.

ambcrypto12/25 17:11

‘Extreme fear’ returns to Bitcoin – Binance’s CZ sees a reward, not a warning

ambcrypto12/25 17:11

Bitcoin price discovery has shifted decisively to derivatives markets

Based on a CoinGlass report, Bitcoin's price discovery has decisively shifted from spot trading to derivatives markets. Futures, perpetual swaps, and options now account for the majority of trading activity, with their volume consistently exceeding spot volume. Consequently, short-term price direction is increasingly determined by leverage, positioning, and hedging behavior rather than direct buying or selling of Bitcoin. This represents a structural shift from earlier cycles, making the market's behavior more akin to traditional macro assets. While this can lead to calmer surface-level price action, it masks underlying risks, increasing the potential for abrupt, volatility spikes triggered by funding stress or liquidation cascades. For participants, monitoring derivatives metrics has become more critical than tracking spot flows alone.

ambcrypto12/25 17:02

Bitcoin price discovery has shifted decisively to derivatives markets

ambcrypto12/25 17:02

Data Suggest Bitcoin May Be Entering A New Bear Phase, Warns CryptoQuant

Bitcoin may be transitioning into a new bear market phase, according to a CryptoQuant analysis by Woominkyu. The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI) has declined to between 0.4 and 0.5, signaling a cooling period rather than a temporary pullback. Historically, cycle bottoms occur when BCMI falls to 0.25–0.35, suggesting further downside potential. Demand has sharply declined since early October, with institutional demand contracting. US spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, selling approximately 24,000 BTC. Perpetual futures funding rates dropped to their lowest since December 2023, indicating reduced risk appetite. Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a key bull-bear market indicator. If a bear market is confirmed, the realized price could be around $56,000, representing a 55% drawdown from recent all-time highs. Intermediate support is seen near $70,000. Bitcoin was trading at $87,635 at the time of writing, down 10% year-to-date and 30.5% from its peak above $126,000.

bitcoinist12/25 15:57

Data Suggest Bitcoin May Be Entering A New Bear Phase, Warns CryptoQuant

bitcoinist12/25 15:57

Mt. Gox Hacker Unloads 1,300 Bitcoin As $360 Million Still Remains

Mt. Gox-linked entities associated with Aleksey Bilyuchenko have deposited another 1,300 BTC (worth $114 million) into unknown exchanges over the past week, according to Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic. The wallets still hold approximately 4,100 BTC ($360 million), with a total of 2,300 BTC sold so far. This continues a pattern of gradual selling observed since late 2023. Bilyuchenko faces charges in the U.S. for his alleged role in the 2011 Mt. Gox hack and money laundering conspiracy, carrying potential 20-year sentences. In Russia, he was convicted in a separate case related to the WEX exchange and sentenced to 3.5 years in prison. Uncertainty remains over who currently controls the funds, with some analysts suggesting possible involvement by Russian authorities.

bitcoinist12/25 15:43

Mt. Gox Hacker Unloads 1,300 Bitcoin As $360 Million Still Remains

bitcoinist12/25 15:43

Bitcoin New Whale Loss-Taking Fades: End Of Capitulation?

Recent on-chain data indicates that loss-taking by new Bitcoin whales (holders of over 1,000 BTC acquired within the last 155 days) has flattened, suggesting a potential pause in their capitulation. These whales were primarily responsible for significant realized losses during Bitcoin's decline from $124,000 to $84,000, with one spike exceeding $600 million. However, as BTC's price stabilized recently, the Realized Profit/Loss metric for both new and old whales has returned to neutral levels, meaning they are now transacting near their cost basis. While it's unclear if whale capitulation has fully ended, their selling pressure has currently subsided. Bitcoin, which briefly surpassed $90,000 this week, has since retreated to around $87,000.

bitcoinist12/25 15:16

Bitcoin New Whale Loss-Taking Fades: End Of Capitulation?

bitcoinist12/25 15:16

Broke the Cycle. How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Years on Christmas

The article "Прервал цикличность. Как менялась цена биткоина за 10 лет в Рождество" (Breaking the Cycle: How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Christmases) analyzes the price of Bitcoin on December 25th for each year from 2015 to 2025. The key finding is that 2025 broke a recent pattern. After nine years where a price drop only occurred the year after three consecutive years of growth, Bitcoin's price in 2025 fell by 11% to $87,600 from the previous Christmas ($98,700 in 2024). This decline is attributed to macroeconomic shocks and large-scale liquidation events in October, making it only the third year in the dataset with a year-over-year Christmas decline. The summary of each year's price and key drivers is as follows: * **2015:** $456 - Consolidation phase. * **2016:** $894 (+96%) - Growth ahead of the halving. * **2017:** $14,300 (+1500%) - Peak of retail frenzy. * **2018:** $4,000 (-72%) - Deep correction after the bubble. * **2019:** $7,300 (+81%) - Initial recovery. * **2020:** $23,800 (+227%) - New institutional cycle begins. * **2021:** $50,900 (+114%) - New all-time high. * **2022:** $16,800 (-67%) - "Crypto winter" with major collapses. * **2023:** $43,000 (+155%) - Recovery on ETF approval hopes. * **2024:** $98,700 (+130%) - Bull run continues post-ETF launch. * **2025:** $87,600 (-11%) - Correction due to macroeconomics. The article concludes that while Bitcoin's growth cycles reach new levels with greater institutional adoption, the 2025 price drop is a reminder that the maturing market remains volatile and sensitive to global risks. A standard disclaimer notes that the content is for informational purposes and cryptocurrency is a volatile asset.

RBK-crypto12/25 14:28

Broke the Cycle. How Bitcoin's Price Changed Over 10 Years on Christmas

RBK-crypto12/25 14:28

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