Bitcoin

Focuses on news, price analysis, technological evolution, and market trends within the Bitcoin ecosystem. It explores its role and influence in the global financial system.

Oversold Bounce Kicks Off New Year Rally, Taking Profits on Rallies is More Prudent | Invited Analysis

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a C-wave correction within a larger A-B-C structure, with the analysis suggesting it is in the C-2 rebound phase. This follows the completion of the C-1 decline, which saw a drop to around $60,000. The ongoing C-2 rebound is expected to face significant resistance in the $72,000–$74,500 and $79,500–$80,600 zones. A subsequent C-3 decline is anticipated, which would likely break below the C-1 low. Short-term trading strategies (using 30% capital) focus on selling into strength near these resistance levels, with tight stop-losses and a profit-taking plan. The medium-term strategy maintains a 60% short position from $89,000, currently showing a 22.71% profit. Key technical indicators on the weekly chart show a bearish trend is still intact, while daily charts indicate a short-term oversold rebound. The core advice for investors is to take profits on rallies, reduce risk, and prepare for a potential further decline.

marsbit20h ago

Oversold Bounce Kicks Off New Year Rally, Taking Profits on Rallies is More Prudent | Invited Analysis

marsbit20h ago

Oversold Rebound Kicks Off New Year's Market; Reducing Positions at Highs is More Prudent | Special Analysis

The article, titled "Oversold Rebound Kicks Off New Year Rally, Reducing Positions on Highs is More Prudent," is a Bitcoin market analysis by特邀分析师 (specially invited analyst) Cody from Odaily. Cody begins by extending New Year's greetings. The core analysis posits that Bitcoin's current price action is part of a larger corrective A-B-C wave structure. The market is currently experiencing a C-2 wave rebound (an upward correction) after completing the C-1 wave decline, which bottomed near $60,000. This rebound is expected to face significant resistance in the $72,000-$74,500 and, more importantly, the $79,500-$80,600 zones. The analyst reviews recent trading performance, noting successful short-term leveraged trades yielding a ~4.01% return and a profitable medium-term short position initiated near $89,000. Technical indicators from proprietary momentum and sentiment models suggest the weekly trend remains bearish (a "downtrend pause"), while daily charts show signs of a short-term oversold rebound. The outlook for the coming week anticipates the C-2 rebound continuing. The key strategy advice for all investors is to "reduce positions on highs to lock in profits" and manage risk." Specific trading plans (Plan A and Plan B) are outlined for entering short positions if the price reaches the mentioned resistance levels. The article concludes with strong risk disclaimers, emphasizing that the analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

Odaily星球日报20h ago

Oversold Rebound Kicks Off New Year's Market; Reducing Positions at Highs is More Prudent | Special Analysis

Odaily星球日报20h ago

Stop Using Gold as a Reference: Bitcoin Is Not a Safe-Haven Asset

In the ongoing debate about Bitcoin's role as a "digital gold" or safe-haven asset, this article argues that Bitcoin is not a reliable hedge like gold. Through statistical analysis, including correlation and cointegration tests (Engle-Granger and ADF), the data shows no robust long-term relationship or mean-reverting behavior between Bitcoin and gold. Their occasional parallel movements are coincidental rather than structurally linked. Bitcoin exhibits extreme volatility (over 50% annualized) and behaves as a high-risk speculative asset, not a stable store of value. The article dismisses narratives about capital rotation from metals to crypto as post-hoc explanations without empirical basis. Instead, it suggests that Bitcoin should be treated as a unique and evolving market, influenced more by internal factors like derivatives positioning, funding rates, open interest, and sentiment extremes than by external analogies. True market lows often coincide with extreme fear, derivative liquidations, and widespread pessimism—key indicators to watch rather than relying on cross-asset comparisons.

marsbit20h ago

Stop Using Gold as a Reference: Bitcoin Is Not a Safe-Haven Asset

marsbit20h ago

Bitcoin: Short liquidations hit $736 mln as BTC rebounds to $70K: Squeeze brewing?

Bitcoin's price recently fell below the $73,000 realized price threshold, indicating active investors held net unrealized losses and signaling fear in the market. However, historical patterns suggest reclaiming this level often precedes bull phases as sellers exhaust and buyers regain control. A significant short liquidation event occurred, with $736 million in bearish positions being forced to close as BTC rebounded toward $70,000. This suggests overcrowded short leverage rather than strong organic demand, and further squeezes could drive sharper upside if buying pressure continues. Derivatives data shows funding rates spiked during the 2025 rally to $100,000 but later compressed and even turned negative as prices corrected, reflecting excessive bearish positioning. Open Interest also declined sharply from $45 billion to $22 billion, indicating large-scale deleveraging. The reset in leverage and sentiment normalization near current levels may support stabilization if spot demand returns, potentially marking a transition into a new recovery phase.

ambcryptoYesterday 23:02

Bitcoin: Short liquidations hit $736 mln as BTC rebounds to $70K: Squeeze brewing?

ambcryptoYesterday 23:02

Institutions Could ‘Fire’ Bitcoin Devs Over Quantum Threat, VC Warns

Large Bitcoin holders and developers face growing friction over potential quantum computing threats, warns VC Nic Carter. Institutions like BlackRock, with massive BTC exposure, may push for centralized, rapid protocol changes if they perceive developers as too slow to address security risks. The theoretical but serious threat of quantum computers breaking cryptographic signatures creates urgency, though timelines are uncertain. Experts like Michael Saylor and Adam Back note industry-wide risks and believe migration to quantum-resistant solutions is feasible with coordination. However, institutional impatience could lead to a corporate takeover of development, shifting power from community contributors to money managers. Market volatility and high stakes may accelerate this pressure, despite quantum threats being a future rather than immediate concern.

bitcoinistYesterday 17:02

Institutions Could ‘Fire’ Bitcoin Devs Over Quantum Threat, VC Warns

bitcoinistYesterday 17:02

Bitcoin Indicator Shows Market At Liquidity Equilibrium – What Next?

Bitcoin is stabilizing near $68,000 after a recent 2.41% weekly loss, still down 46% from its 2025 all-time high. A key indicator, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), is currently around 9.5–9.6, signaling a liquidity equilibrium. SSR measures Bitcoin's market cap against stablecoin supply, indicating available buying power. When SSR declines toward 9.5, it often signals strengthening liquidity and potential upward reversals. Conversely, a rise toward 9.5 suggests fading liquidity and possible corrections. Despite a 3.97% daily price increase, trading volume has dropped 15.3%, and the Fear and Greed Index reflects extreme caution. However, some analysts project short-term targets of $73,769 and $77,687, with a three-month expectation of $72,480.

bitcoinistYesterday 11:03

Bitcoin Indicator Shows Market At Liquidity Equilibrium – What Next?

bitcoinistYesterday 11:03

Bitcoin: Why J.P. Morgan believes that BTC can reach $266K in 2026

Bitcoin is experiencing high volatility and extreme fear among investors, with its price recovering to $70,318 but still down 26% over the past month. Despite this, large investors are slowly returning, as evidenced by inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Mining difficulty and hashrate are declining, indicating miner capitulation due to rising costs and lower profitability. J.P. Morgan has adjusted Bitcoin’s production cost estimate down to $77,000 but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, predicting a rise to $266,000 by 2026. This optimism is based on the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, which would facilitate institutional investment. Major banks, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, are expanding into crypto services, signaling a shift toward a more regulated and bank-supported market.

ambcryptoYesterday 10:02

Bitcoin: Why J.P. Morgan believes that BTC can reach $266K in 2026

ambcryptoYesterday 10:02

Hong Kong Consensus Binance Voice: In the Era of Regulation-Friendly, Why Are Institutions Increasing Their Bitcoin Holdings?

Hong Kong Consensus: Binance's Voice - Why Institutions Are Accumulating Bitcoin in a Regulation-Friendly Era At the 2026 Hong Kong Consensus conference, Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng highlighted key market shifts. Regulatory clarity is now a foundation for innovation, not a barrier, with recent U.S. legislative progress boosting stablecoin adoption. The line between Web2 and Web3 is blurring, evidenced by Binance's collaboration with Franklin Templeton on tokenized money market funds, integrating traditional finance into crypto. While retail investors remain cautious, institutions are accumulating—buying ~43,000 BTC in January alone. Binance's strategic move to convert $1 billion of its SAFU fund from stablecoins to Bitcoin signals strong long-term confidence, reducing circulating supply and providing market support. Institutional buying is driven by Bitcoin's role as a strategic asset, with spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even governments like El Salvador increasing holdings. Unlike MicroStrategy's corporate asset allocation or passive ETF inflows, Binance's SAFU conversion is a risk management move, using a dynamic purchasing mechanism to ensure fund security. This action, while having a modest direct price impact (estimated 2-5% upside), reinforces Bitcoin's credibility and sets a psychological support level. For retail investors, survival in the bear market means focusing on defensive strategies, such as low-risk earning opportunities like Binance's booster programs offering up to 8-20% APY, rather than speculative bets. The message is clear: emulate institutions by prioritizing capital preservation and steady growth to endure the downturn and prepare for the next cycle. Winter will pass, but only the prepared will thrive in spring.

marsbitYesterday 08:25

Hong Kong Consensus Binance Voice: In the Era of Regulation-Friendly, Why Are Institutions Increasing Their Bitcoin Holdings?

marsbitYesterday 08:25

Bitcoin – Why $60K is the level traders can’t afford to lose!

Bitcoin's $60,000 level is a critical support threshold that traders cannot afford to lose, as a break below could trigger massive liquidations and push prices toward $50,000. This level is reinforced by Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average and holds $1.24 billion in put options, indicating strong bearish bets. With 85% of traders expecting a breakdown, bearish sentiment is heightened by macroeconomic uncertainty, including an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Open interest in Bitcoin options has surged 77%, reflecting increased positioning and fragility in the market. The situation remains highly volatile, with significant pressure on bulls to defend the $60,000 level.

ambcrypto2 days ago 02:02

Bitcoin – Why $60K is the level traders can’t afford to lose!

ambcrypto2 days ago 02:02

What’s next for Bitcoin prices as inflation cools and demand hesitates?

Inflation cooled as expected, with CPI slowing to 2.4% and core to 2.5%, boosting equity risk appetite. However, Bitcoin did not follow through due to weak U.S. spot demand, indicated by a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index. This suggests arbitrage selling, inconsistent ETF flows, and a preference for derivatives. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, reaching $410 million by mid-February, reflecting institutional hesitation rather than accumulation. Exchange netflows showed large sell-side pressure, while weakening stablecoin inflows reduced buying power. Aggressive selling, with sustained negative taker volume, dominated order flow, capping upside momentum. The market remains in a recovery validation phase, lacking confirmed uptrend signals.

ambcrypto2 days ago 19:02

What’s next for Bitcoin prices as inflation cools and demand hesitates?

ambcrypto2 days ago 19:02

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