Amid increasing volatility across various asset classes, it is timely to re-evaluate the core allocation value of U.S. stocks. Within global equity assets, U.S. stocks can still be considered one of the core allocation options for some long-term investors. This assessment is not based on short-term bets on the macroeconomic environment in 2026, but rather stems from three more stable and sustainable structural drivers: the compound interest foundation built by institutional advantages, real demand driven by technological innovation, and the long-term shift in global capital allocation logic.
Institutional and Historical Compound Interest: An Unreplicable "Underlying Framework"
From early 2015 to the end of 2025, the cumulative gain of the Nasdaq Composite Index was approximately 2 to 3 times that of the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index. More importantly, its maximum drawdown during the sample period was only -36.4%, significantly lower than the -69.7% and -74.4% of the latter two. This means that in the U.S. stock market, investors are more likely to realize returns through "time + compound interest" rather than "strong timing."
This outcome is not accidental but a quantitative reflection of institutional advantages. The U.S. capital market has built a complete innovation financing chain from venture capital and private financing to IPOs and refinancing, enabling companies to access resources with lower friction over longer cycles, forming a positive cycle of "investment—growth—reinvestment." At the same time, listed companies generally adhere to cash flow discipline and shareholder return mechanisms, making the profit foundation of the index more resilient amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Additionally, the global pricing attribute of dollar assets gives U.S. stocks a natural liquidity absorption capacity—capital flows back for避险 during risk aversion and absorbs incremental risk exposure during expansion. This dual moat of "institutions + currency" is the fundamental reason why the compound interest effect can be sustained.
AI-Driven Industry Cycle: From "Valuation Imagination" to "Real Investment"
Tech giants have contributed the majority of the excess returns in this round of U.S. stock gains. However, contrary to some market concerns about a "bubble theory," we believe the current phase is a critical transition from "infrastructure expansion" to "application penetration" in the AI industry cycle, characterized by the parallel validation of real demand and real investment.
Stanford's "AI Index 2025" shows that 78% of organizations reported using AI in 2024, a significant increase from 55% in 2023, indicating accelerated diffusion on the demand side. On the supply side, capital expenditures by U.S. listed companies related to AI increased from approximately $208.26 billion in 2019 to $384.44 billion in 2025, a cumulative growth of nearly 100%. This is not "retreating after storytelling" but rather investing real money to expand computing power and infrastructure.
We divide the AI profit realization path into three stages: the infrastructure红利期, the platform expansion and service realization period, and the application layer penetration and business model再造期. The current market is still in the window of transition from the first to the second stage, with application layer penetration far from saturated. Even if the gains of leading stocks边际放缓, the cost reduction and efficiency improvements brought by AI will continue to扩散 to more industries, providing broader and longer-tail growth momentum for U.S. stocks.
Global Capital Allocation: From "Transactional Inflows" to "Structural Increase"
Over the past three years, the scale of U.S. equity holdings by overseas investors has shown a "step-up" increase—rising from $14.63 trillion in 2023 to $21.59 trillion in 2025, a cumulative increase of approximately 47.6% over two years. This level of sustained growth resembles a long-term上调 of allocation weights by global institutional capital rather than short-term chasing of gains.
From a regional structure perspective, Europe contributed about 51% of the增量, further confirming that this is a strategic rebalancing led by mature market capital. The underlying reasons can be summarized into three points: First, the U.S. stock market is the only超大规模 market globally that can accommodate trillion-dollar incremental capital with controllable trading impact costs; Second, the continuity, comparability of information disclosure, and predictability of the regulatory system significantly reduce the information asymmetry costs of cross-market investment; Third, U.S. stocks provide the most concentrated supply of high-quality assets in long-term sectors such as technology, software, cloud, and AI platform companies, and ETFs and index tools are highly mature, facilitating low-cost, high-efficiency expression of long-term allocation views.
Macro Environment: Moderate Rate Cuts and Policy博弈 Coexist, But Do Not Alter Long-Term Direction
The baseline macroeconomic scenario for 2026 is closer to "declining interest rates + cooling but still resilient economy." The Fed's SEP predicts a median policy rate of about 3.4% by the end of 2026, a边际回落 from the current target range, which is favorable for corporate financing and valuation environments. Although economic growth slows from high levels, CBO predictions remain within the normal growth range of around 1.8%, and corporate profits are more likely to follow a path of "slowing growth rather than a cliff-like downward revision."
A notable disturbance variable is tax policy. Many individual and household provisions of the 2017 tax reform are set to expire at the end of 2025, and 2026 will likely enter a密集期 of policy博弈. Fiscal pressures may exacerbate long-term interest rate volatility, making the market more bumpy periodically. However, it is important to distinguish that: volatility does not equal trend reversal. As long as the three long-term drivers—institutional advantages, industry cycles, and capital structure—remain fundamentally unshaken, short-term policy disturbances恰恰 provide a window for分批配置 and extending holding periods.
The long-term allocation value of U.S. stocks is essentially the product of a trinity positive feedback system of "institutions—industry—capital." It does not rely on macroeconomic luck in any given year, nor does it tied to the valuation myth of a single leading stock, but is rooted in more stable and replicable structural红利. For allocation-oriented capital pursuing long-term compound interest, the "core foundational allocation" attribute of U.S. stocks has not weakened; instead, against the backdrop of rising global uncertainty, it appears increasingly scarce.
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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial experts. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
